James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
From our UK edition
The new YouGov numbers have the Tories steady on 38 and Labour down one to 32 while the LibDems are on 19. Again, these numbers are within the margin of the error. The biggest impact of these numbers will be to strengthen the Tory view that the Ahscroft affair is a media obsession of little
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When Gordon Brown pulled out of PMQs this week because of Jacob Zuma’s state visit there was much chortling that he didn’t much fancy PMQs. But I suspect that Labour is rather glad that William Hague is up today; no Tory politician is more central to the Ashcroft peerage than Hague, and Hague’s appearance at
From our UK edition
In tonight’s poll, the Tories are down one to 38 and Labour up one to 33. These changes are within the margin of error. But it does seem that whatever momentum the Tories had after Cameron’s speech has stalled. (We shouldn’t forget that it might be that the two point poll was an outlier and that nothing has
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Every August we go through the same debate, are A-Levels getting easier? However harsh it may be on those who have just received their results, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are. There is a justified suspicion that the bureaucracy’s over-riding aim is to see a larger and larger proportion of students
From our UK edition
The YouGov poll out tonight will ease Tory worries. It shows the Tories ahead by seven points, 39 to 32. Ten days ago, the Tories would not have been particularly happy about a seven point advantage. But seven points is much better than the two point lead they had this weekend and adds to the
From our UK edition
We are expecting at least one poll tonight, the YouGov tracker, and I think there will be one other. If these polls show the Tories ahead by six—a level that just last week was seen as rather disappointing—they will add to the sense that the Tories are over the worst of the wobble. Significantly, the
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Whenever a sense of crisis is building around him, David Cameron delivers a speech without notes. This has the effect of bringing things to a head, of creating a moment which, if Cameron can make it through, the situation is defused. Today’s speech did that. It has, I suspect, moved the story on from Tory
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When you watch David Cameron speak without notes you wonder why they ever let him speak with a text. You can tell when Cameron is on form as he stops and sets himself before he delivers the bit that he hopes will be clipped for the news and he was back to doing that today.
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There is only one topic of conversation here in Brighton, the shrinking Tory poll lead. The optimistic take is that a poll suggesting Labour would be the largest party actually makes the prospect of five more years of Gordon Brown real to people and so lets the Tories emphasise that this election is choice between
From our UK edition
The mood in the bars of Brighton is grim: the Tory lead is down to two points in the latest poll. (As UK polling Report notes, any individual poll should be treated with caution) The poll is, obviously, bad news for the Tories. But it does set the stage for David Cameron’s speech tomorrow. Cameron
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If you had a fiver for every time a Tory speaker today has said ‘five more years of Gordon Brown’ you would soon be rich enough to start worrying about the 50p tax rate. All the speakers in the economy debate stressed how the country ‘cannot afford five more years of Gordon Brown.’ George Osborne
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As this morning papers’ show, the Tories know that their spring conference here in Brighton offers them a chance to change the narrative of this campaign, to get back on the front foot. William Hague’s speech, the first big set-piece of the event, tried to frame the choice facing the country at the election as
From our UK edition
Why has the Tory lead halved since December? James Forsyth says that Cameron and his four top men — Osborne, Hilton, Coulson and Bridges — must take the blame for the party’s dismal performance and its lack of message and purpose One evening earlier this week a group of senior Tories gathered for a secret
From our UK edition
Tory spring forum gives David Cameron a chance to regain the momentum. The media will be there in numbers and I suspect that the rumours of an early election mean that it will get more attention than it otherwise would have done. Cameron’s speech is a real chance to show what the Tories are going
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As the Tories prepare to head to the seaside, Tim Montgomerie has published a ten point plan to get the Tory campaign back on track. The plan is already causing much discussion in Tory circles. His main points are that the Tories need to sharpen their economic message, use William Hague more, sort out the
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At the beginning of this week the key figures in the Tory election campaign gathered together in Notting Hill to try and work out what was going wrong with the Tory campaign, why the Tory lead has halved since December. Our cover this week attempts to answer this question. My take is that the problem
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The obsession of British politicians – and political journalists – with American politics is often mocked. But there’s a clarity to American political messages that is often missing in this country. So it is good to see George Osborne borrowing a line from the Reagan playbook, and pointing out that people are now worse off
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I missed it but Alistair Darling’s interview with Jeff Randal seems to have been quite remarkable. He talked about ‘the forces of hell’ being unleashed against him by No 10 after he talked about how bad the recession would be in August 2008. When pressed on McBride and Whelan’s alleged involvement in the briefing against
From our UK edition
Last night I posted on a YouGov poll which had the Tories above forty and ahead by 12. It now turn out that those numbers were wrong and that the poll actually showed something very different—apologies for that. The real figures are Tories 39, Labour 33. Considering that this poll was conducted after the Rawnsley
From our UK edition
Apology: The actual YouGov numbers did not show an increase in the Tory lead. Instead, they showed the Tories unchanged at 39 and Labour unchanged on 33. Apologies. The second poll of the night is much better for the Tories and will calm some jangled nerves. A YouGov poll carried out for the Sun after