James Forsyth

The only mention that the Liberal Democrats received in David Cameron’s speech was a reference to the fact that they, unlike the Tories, had not been committed to real-terms increases in the NHS budget. Combine this with the fact that the speech saw Cameron pit the Tory view of the world against Labour’s and one could see an attempt to write the Liberal Democrats out of the script. The absence of the Liberal Democrats from the speech was, I’m informed, quite deliberate. Cameron’s implicit message was that the really big things the coalition is doing — education and welfare reform and the structural changes to the economy — are Conservative things. In 2015, the choice between Labour and the Conservatives will be stark.

The speed with which Michael Gove is going about his education reforms means that he is creating facts on the grounds, facts which Labour will—I suspect—have to accept by the next election. Parents with children at new free schools and academies are not going to vote for a party that is going to abolish their child’s school. For example, the mother of a child at a Birmingham free school—Geraldine Henry—spoke at Tory conference today in favour of free schools. I expect that Henry would never have expected to find herself speaking at a Tory conference but she clearly felt compelled to come and promote and defend her son’s school.

Iain Duncan Smith has just delivered the most political speech of what has been a highly partisan conference. He tore into Labour’s record on welfare, accusing them of having fostered welfare dependency and increased inequality. He said that they had created two nations: one who worked and one who was trapped on welfare. Having done that, he then denounced Labour for having opposed all of his changes to the welfare system, attacking them in moral terms for this. Labour ‘don’t know anything about work do they’ he told the audience to cheers. The flip side of this attack on Labour was an attempt to claim the mantle of ‘social reform’ for the Tory party.

The Tory party loves its former leaders and the queue for Conservative Home’s fringe event with Iain Duncan Smith went round the block. IDS began by explaining why he had chosen to stay in the Welfare job rather than move to Justice in the reshuffle. Though he stressed that there had been no Prime Ministerial demand that he did move but merely what he described as, a ‘genuinely good discussion’ about it. IDS, who is known not to be a big fan of giving free TV licenses and the like to wealthy pensioners, said that any changes to pensioner benefits were ‘off the table’ because of David Cameron’s election pledge. He admitted that this meant that the ‘burden is greater on working age recipients.

Too often the debate about the future direction of the Tory party is polarised between those who want to ‘modernise’ and those who want to ‘go right’. But there’s another problem, these labels now obscure as much as they reveal. In the next few days in Birmingham, the Tories have two important tasks: to show that they understand the squeeze on people’s living standards and are doing something about it and that they have a proper growth strategy. Some Cameron aides have long argued that the Prime Minister with his personal wealth can’t talk about the cost of living.

‘The election that never was’ is one of the most important events, or non-events, in recent British political history; if it had gone ahead, David Cameron might never have become Prime Minister and there might not have been a coalition at all. Equally, Gordon Brown could have seen Labour’s majority slashed and had to quit long before the financial crisis hit. The story of what happened that day has been told several times. But I don’t think I’ve read a more gripping account than Damian McBride’s. McBride did disgrace himself but he can sure as hell write. If you like the political game, you really sure read it.

listen to ‘Ed Miliband conference speech highlights, 2 Oct 12’ on Audioboo.

Ed Miliband will roam the stage as he delivers his leader’s speech. With negative polls about whether voters can see him as Prime Minister been giving prominent play in the papers, the stakes for this speech have been raised. I suspect that the speech will be better delivered than last year’s—Miliband is far more comfortable when he is not behind a podium—and more tightly written. Judging by what has been briefed out in advance, we know that it also contains more concrete policies. But I expect that the speech will still set off quite the political bun fight. The Tory strategy for the next election campaign requires them to, in effect, disqualify Miliband as a potential Prime Minister.

On BBC1 Sunday Politics just now, Harriet Harman rowed back from what she told me for this week's magazine: that Labour would not match Tory spending plans at the next election. The change in position is significant as it shows how Labour—and Ed Balls, in particular—want to keep this option open ahead of 2015. In 1997, Gordon Brown’s commitment to keep to Tory spending plans for two years largely succeeded in reassuring people that Labour could be trusted with the economy. Balls, who was one of the architects of this policy, is said to be interested in doing the same in 2015. The thinking is that it would take the deficit off the table as an election issue and make it harder for the Tories to claim that a Labour government would spook the markets.