James Forsyth

Chris Huhne’s guilty plea alters the political landscape. There’s now no need for a reshuffle to accommodate his return to the top table of British politics. Huhne, who ran for the Lib Dem leadership twice and some thought would do so again, is now standing down as an MP. In this respect, Huhne’s departure from the scene makes the coalition more stable. But the coming by-election in Eastleigh will be quite a fight between the coalition parties. Even Tory ministers are looking forward to landing a few blows on their coalition partners. One I spoke to just now, declared ‘we’ll throw everything at it. You have to win by-elections’. I understand that CCHQ is already moving resources to the seat.

On the Sunday Politics, William Hague confirmed that the greatest terrorist threat to the British homeland come from Somalia, Pakistan and Afghanistan. But he argued that without intervention, the Sahel could become as dangerous to Britain. Those hoping for Hague to put flesh on the bones of the government’s European strategy will have been disappointed. The Tory leadership remains determined not to give out anything akin to a renegotiation scorecard. When pressed by Andrew Neil on whether he would advocate leaving if only the status quo was on offer, Hague said that the government would have to ‘use our judgment at the time.’ On gay marriage, Hague reiterated his support for it.

David Cameron arrived back in the UK this morning to newspapers full of talk of Conservative splits and plots. The moment of unity that followed his Europe speech has well and truly passed. There’s no doubt that the gay marriage is causing a ruckus in Conservative Associations up and down the country and that Conservative MPs will go through different lobbies on Tuesday night. To some extent, this division in the Conservative ranks was priced in. What was not is the continuing and increasingly frenzied leadership speculation. The Mail and The Independent this morning detail plans by allies of the Home Secretary Theresa May to position her for the leadership in the event of a vacancy.

The government’s position on defence spending is, to put it politely, confused. After the completion of the SDSR and the defence spending settlement, there was an expectation that the military budget would begin to rise again in real terms from 2015. There has long been talk in Whitehall that David Cameron assured senior military figures that this would be the case and, as James Kirkup notes, he told the Commons that he believed that this would happen. So, this morning when we woke to the news from the Prime Minister’s plane that the defence budget would rise in 2015-16, it seemed that Cameron had imposed his will on the bureaucracy. But then Philip Hammond took to the airwaves and said that the only thing that was guaranteed was that the equipment budget would increase.

The website of the new Centre for British Influence through Europe reveals just how far on the back foot the pro-Europeans are. Its introductory article states: ‘It is also wrong that the other extreme think that they own the European flag in their belief that the only future is full on in.’ This is a major concession by the pro-European forces. It is strikingly different from the Britain in Europe message that this country must join the single currency and be at the heart of Europe. Now pretty much everyone accepts that Britain isn’t going to join the Euro and isn’t going to pursue ever closer union with the rest of the European Union. The debate is about how much looser Britain’s relationship with the other EU member states should become.

The Adam Afriyie leadership stories this Sunday confirmed several things. First, there’ll be no shortage of candidates when David Cameron goes. A large tranche of backbenchers have become increasingly irritated at what they view as a magic circle of ministers, special advisers and journalists who, they claim, are deciding who is and isn’t considered a serious player in Westminster. A result of this will be a determined effort to bust this alleged cartel come the next leadership contest. The second, and more important, thing is that the whole issue of pay and rations for MPs is still shaping our politics. Many of those most hostile to Cameron are those who feel that he hung them — or their colleagues — out to dry during the expenses scandal.

There’s ‘no secret plot to get Britain out of the EU’ declared David Lidington on the Sunday Politics. In an interview with Andrew Neil, the Europe Minister was determinedly vague on the issue of what powers the next Conservative manifesto will seek a mandate to repatriate. But he made clear that the free movement of people is not going to be part of the renegotiation nor will Britain seek the right to strike its own trade deals with other countries. Having given the speech, David Cameron and his team don’t want to give a running commentary on what they might or might not seek to change about Britain’s terms of EU membership. Indeed, I suspect that they would like to go into the next election seeking as vague as possible a mandate.

Angela Merkel’s statement yesterday was a big fillip to David Cameron’s European strategy as it suggested renegotiation was possible. One senior government source called it ‘as good as we could have hoped for'. I understand that Merkel and her officials have indicated to the Cameron circle that they want Britain to stay in the EU and are prepared to consider Britain’s concerns. But Merkel does not wish to look like she is interfering in British domestic politics; she doesn’t want to appear to be endorsing the Cameron approach. Secondly, she does not yet know how much room for manoeuvre she has.

Last week at PMQs, Ed Miliband had great fun, mocking the wait for David Cameron’s Europe speech. He lampooned the Prime Minister as the weak leader of a divided party. It was a performance that disturbed even some normally calm Number 10 aides. But this week, it was Cameron who was relishing PMQs. By the end of the session, he was even telling Dennis Skinner — who normally brings out the Prime Minister’s irritable side — that he might agree with the speech Cameron is  giving in Davos tomorrow. Now that Cameron has set out his position, Miliband is under pressure to follow suit. Miliband appeared to rule out a referendum, responding to Cameron’s taunts with the line ‘No, I don’t want an In/Out referendum.

David Cameron’s Commons statement on Algeria just now was the most interventionist speech he has made since the one he delivered at the Foreign Policy Centre during his 2005 leadership bid. But this speech is far more important than that one because it is what he actually believes; the 2005 speech was written by Michael Gove and was given more to tick the leadership contest’s foreign policy box than anything else. Listening to Cameron today, it is clear that the events of recent days have led him to redouble his commitment to interventionism. Indeed, in his talk of the ‘generational challenge’ and the need to ‘beat them [the terrorists] militarily’ one could hear echoes of Blair and Bush post 9/11.

If the Tory party doesn’t improve its performance with ethnic minority voters, it’ll be nigh-on-impossible for it to win a general election in a generation’s time. The single biggest driver of not voting Tory is not being white and more than one in four under fives in Britain are non-white. This is the background to the Tories’ big push to increase their support among ethnic minority voters and David Cameron’s decision to devote Wednesday’s political Cabinet to the subject. Now, I’m always wary of parties talking about appealing to specific groups rather than individuals.