James Forsyth

David Cameron has just delivered his end of term address to the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. The Prime Minister made little news apart from going out of his way to praise Maria Hutchings, making clear he had no truck with efforts to blame her for the party’s poor performance in the Eastleigh by-election. He stuck to the same messages that he had when addressing the parliamentary party the other week, one backbencher left complaining ‘we’ve heard it all before.’ But what should cause some concern Number 10 is how few MPs turned up to hear the Prime Minister. The audience was estimated at between 80 and 100, less than a third of the parliamentary party.

I’ve just watched the Boris interview with Eddie Mair and I have to say, these dogs won’t hunt. Mair threw three accusations at Johnson and I think all three of them are dealable with. The first was an allegation that Boris had made up a quote, something that he lost his job at The Times for. Now, I suspect that anything in which Boris can claim the defence that he had only moved something from ‘before Piers Gaveston’s death’ to after it isn’t going to end a political career. Also considering that Boris rose to journalistic prominence after this incident, it is hard to claim that it is disqualifying. The second was about his affair with Petronella Wyatt. Again, I don’t think this is career ending stuff.

Ed Miliband’s interview with The Times today is striking for the language he uses about the Liberal Democrats. There’s no attempt to follow up last week’s Clegg, Miliband outflanking of Cameron with a love bombing of the deputy Prime Minister. Instead, there’s an emphasis that it would be ‘very difficult to work in a future Labour government with somebody who has taken the opposite position in a Tory government’. There are no warm words for Vince Cable either: “He flirts with the right position but doesn’t consummate it." I think this reveals two things. First, Miliband knows that the coalition is surprisingly solid; it is not going to collapse anytime soon whatever the differences over press regulation.

This time last week, Westminster was full of speculation about alternative coalitions. Politics-watchers, myself included, all started speculating about what the Clegg Miliband alternative coalition on press regulation meant. But the Budget was a reminder of how solid the coalition actually is. The Quad still agrees on the government’s economic strategy. Vince Cable — as his recent essay demonstrated — may have his doubts. But it would be hard to find much distance between Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander. Indeed, it was striking the relish with which Danny Alexander tore into Labour’s Chris Leslie on Newsnight last night. Going through the whole Budget, it is — unlike last year — quite hard to find the coalition trade-offs.

For the opening half of George Osborne’s Budget speech, the Labour front bench was busy waving around copies of the Evening Standard’s front page. This was visibly putting Osborne off; he wouldn’t be human if the fear that another of his Budgets was going to be dashed on the media rocks hadn’t crossed his mind. But by the time he sat down, the storm over the Standard front had died down thanks to a quick and dignified apology from the paper itself. Osborne will also have been pleased by the cheers of his own side as he returned to his seat. For all the speculation got up by the irreconcilables, most Tory backbenchers seemed as pleased as could be expected with a Budget that was delivered against such a grim fiscal backdrop.

The three party leaders have just opened the debate on the Royal Charter. David Cameron was at pains to stress that this is not a ‘statutory approach’. But this was undermined by the deputy Prime Minister describing the approach as ‘a mix of Royal Charter and Statute.’ It was Miliband, though, who looked most satisfied with the deal. He dished out praise to those involved in securing agreement as if he was the Prime Minister. Labour are still in shock about how Letwin wandered into Ed Miliband’s office to negotiate last night without a political adviser or the backing of any other minister. One of the things that worries me most is the fact that all three leaders referred to having a deal that the victims could accept.

Reading the Hacked Off memo on how to lobby Tory MPs is to be inducted into a wholly cynical world view. It declares, ‘These people are likely to be people you instinctively distrust, dislike and despair of. If they are what we need to win, however, we must understand their value and not confuse our values with their intentions’. The memo, leaked to the Mail on Sunday, reveals that Hacked Off think that the Tory MPs who support them are likely to be ‘social authoritarians’, those ‘who have suffered at the hands of the press themselves’ or those who ‘simply want to bring David Cameron down’. This memo is also explicit that Hacked Off’s aim is ‘an independent statutory regulator with punitive powers’.

The Tories know that if the next election is a referendum on the current government, it’ll be very difficult for them to win. But if it is a choice between them and a Labour government, then they are in with a good chance. David Cameron’s speech to his party’s Spring Forum today ends with a list of what a Labour government would do in its first 100 days in office. It shows how keen the Tories are to frame the next election as a choice, not a referendum, that Cameron is prepared to publicly contemplate defeat to do this. Interestingly, there's no mnetion of the Liberal Democrats or the coalition in the speech.

David Cameron’s decision to go it alone and call a vote on a press Royal Charter on Monday is a reminder both of how fundamental the differences between the coalition partners are on press regulation and that the next election is less than 25 months away. Cameron’s statement that if he loses next week and statutory regulation passes, then a majority Conservative government would repeal it shows that he’s prepared to make this an election issue. The coalition won’t fall over Monday’s vote. But it will be a moment of high parliamentary drama.

George Osborne yesterday set the date for completion of the 2015-16 spending review as 26 June. But it is hard to see how an agreement between the Treasury and the un-protected spending departments will be reached in the next 105 days. The Tory branch of the National Union of Ministers want the welfare settlement reopened before their budgets are cut further. For their part, the Liberal Democrats remain resolutely opposed to more welfare reductions. But I understand that the departing head of the Number 10 policy unit Paul Kirby has drawn up an alternative spending review plan which would break this log-jam.

Lynton Crosby spoke to Tory MPs this evening about the imporance of party discipline. With the Chief Whip in the chair, meetings of the Tory parliamentary party are normally fairly loyalist events. Tonight’s was no exception and with David Cameron and Lynton Crosby in attendance there was an even greater incentive to good behaviour. I’m told that James Morris, who sits for a West Midlands marginal, earned cheers when he implored colleagues to remember that when they sound off, they hurt those like him who are trying to cling on to their majorities. Kris Hopkins, the no nonsense leader of the 301 Group, complained about ‘self indulgent buffoons’ who keep popping up to tout themselves as alternative leaders.

The last few weeks have, to put it mildly, not been encouraging for those working on the Tories’ 2015 campaign. But today brings news to gladden their hearts. For the FT’s Kiran Stacey reports that Nick Clegg is so opposed to David Cameron’s plan for renegotiation followed by a referendum that he’s considering making it a red line for any future coalition negotiation. This is good news for Tory campaigners as it indicates that the Liberal Democrats will go into the next election opposed to giving the people a say on Europe. Now, to most voters Europe is not the deciding issue when they cast their ballot.

If you want to know what the Liberal Democrat’s message at the next election will be, read Nick Clegg’s speech to the party’s Spring Conference today. He kept to the refrain that the Liberal Democrats are for a stronger economy and a fairer society and you can’t trust the Tories with society or Labour with the economy. In a sign of the new, more disciplined Lib Dem machine there were no detours from this core theme. Listening to Clegg, you would have had no idea that the leadership had lost a vote on secret courts this morning. Clegg knows that his internal position hasn’t been this strong since the Liberal Democrats entered coalition.

The question about Theresa May has always been what does she believe? Well, today in the widest-ranging speech of her political career she went a long way to answering that. You can read the speech, delivered at the Conservative Home conference, here. Several things struck me about the speech. First, on economics May is not a classical liberal or a Lawsonian. Instead, she is more in the Michael Heseltine camp. She made the case for a buy British government procurement programme that strikes a ‘better balance between short-term value for the taxpayer and long-term benefits to the economy’. But, in other areas, May is prepared to be more free market than the Tory party has been to date.