James Forsyth

Up until now, the fact that we know the date of the next general election has worked in Ed Miliband's favour. He has known the timetable to which he has to work and has been able to resist demands to produce policy early by pointing out that we know the next election will not be until May 2015. But in the present circumstances, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is not helping Miliband. Normally, in the fourth year of the parliament with the government receiving a bounce in the polls, the opposition would be wary of a snap election. This would create some internal discipline. But everyone on the Labour side now knows that there are still 14 months to go to polling day. This means that there is plenty of time to argue about what should be in the manifesto and the party's approach.

Both coalition parties remain scarred by the political potency of Ed Miliband's pledge to freeze energy prices. They are determined to do what they can to stop this issue gaining salience again. So, it is telling that Ed Davey and Michael Fallon have both personally signed up to The Big Deal, a new initiative designed to gets consumers cheaper energy bills through bulk buying. Their decision to sign up shows how it is politically imperative to be seen as on the side of the customer rather than the producer when it comes to energy. (It is also testament to how well connected the campaign is in Westminster.) No politician wants to look like they are defending the big six energy companies at the moment.

George Osborne was on Andrew Marr this morning announcing support for a new garden city at Ebbsfleet in Kent and the extension of Help to Buy on new build homes until 2020. The Tories hope that these policies will show both that they are planning for the long term and that they are supporting aspiration. But what struck me as most significant was Osborne’s response when told by Marr that he was sounding more like a Liberal Democrat than a Conservative. He instantly replied, ‘Conservatives believe in lower taxes, Liberal Democrats want to put taxes up.’ We already know that Osborne believes that the rest of the deficit can be cleared without any more tax increases and this reply suggests that the Tories will run in 2015 as the only party that won’t put up taxes.

With David Cameron in Israel today, it was the deputies’ turn at PMQs. These Clegg/Harman sessions are, by now, thoroughly predictable. Harman attacks the Lib Dems as the Tories’ accomplices while Clegg gets stuck into some spirited Labour-bashing.

The longer the Scottish referendum campaign goes on, the more I fear for the long-term future of the Union. I suspect that the pro-Union campaign will win this September, but the way in which they will do this is storing up problems for the future. The pro-Union campaign has, so far, concentrated on two messages: the dangers of independence and the fact that there'll be more devolution if the Scots vote no to independence. These tactics will help with this September's referendum—indeed Hamish Macdonell argues persuasively that a ‘devo plus’ offer would deliver victory. But strategically they are storing up problems for the future. Gordon Brown is today proposing a whole slew of extra powers for the Scottish parliament.

The Tory leadership is not best pleased with James Brokenshire, the Immigration Minister whose ill-judged speech turned a media spotlight onto the Cameron’s nanny. There are mutterings in Downing Street about the speech having being submitted for clearance very late. But Number 10 can’t escape its share of the blame for this fiasco. First, the speech should never have been cleared. The problems it would cause were obvious, which is why one Lib Dem tells me ‘we all fell out about laughing when we read it.’ Second, Brokenshire should never have been appointed to this job.

As Patrick McLoughlin makes clear in his interview with The Spectator, Sir Howard Davies's report on where in the south east new runways should be built will be published soon after the next election. The plan is that the new runways will then be approved and construction under way by 2020; meaning that there'll be no chance for people to vote against them at a general election. Strikingly, the Heathrow Hub option — which would extend the northern runway and then turn it into two runways — is rapidly gaining support in Westminster. Part of its attraction of is that the scheme would also enable you to extend the southern runway and turn that into two runways, creating — in effect — a four runway airport.

It was, perhaps, inevitable that heading to interview the Transport Secretary I would end up stuck in traffic — so by the time I reached Patrick McLoughlin’s office, I was running a few minutes late. The normal punishment for tardiness is to be left languishing outside a minister’s office. But McLoughlin does things differently. When I arrive, his door is open and he urges me to come straight in. As befits a man who used to earn his crust as a miner, McLoughlin has a big physical presence. He is broad-shouldered and the buttons on his shirt sleeves look close to bursting as they try to contain his large forearms. His physical appearance is just the most obvious of the many traits that make McLoughlin stand out in a cabinet dominated by Oxbridge graduates.

Six questions from Ed Miliband on Ukraine resulted in a calmer, more discursive PMQs than normal. Though I suspect that the headlines will be grabbed by Samantha Cameron's presence in the chamber. In response to Miliband's questions, Cameron indicated that he expected to boycott the G8 meeting in Russia saying that it was ‘hard to see how a G8 meeting could take place in these circumstances.’ Miliband tried to move Cameron towards a tougher line on travel restrictions on the Russian elite, but Cameron side-stepped the question.

A dramatic Cabinet this morning as the Tories ambushed the Lib Dems over the contents of the Queen’s Speech. First, Cameron took them by surprise by demanding that a recall bill be included in the speech. This was quite a slap to the Liberal Democrats seeing as just last month they were publicly blaming Cameron and Osborne for the fact that a recall bill was not going to be included in the Queen’s Speech. But this wasn’t the only bit of Tory aggression this morning. For Osborne then took up the baton, pushing for the inclusion of an EU referendum bill in the coalition’s legislative agenda. David Laws and Nick Clegg dismissed this idea. But IDS then pointed out that the Liberal Democrats used to boast of being in favour of an In / Out referendum.

Jaw-dropping news tonight: the Daily Mail’s James Chapman reveals that Patrick Rock, the deputy director of the Number 10 policy unit and a long-serving political ally of David Cameron, has resigned after being arrested on child porn charges. Rock was one of Cameron’s Downing Street fixers. The two had worked together as SPADs to Michael Howard and Rock was very much part of the old special adviser network. So, when Cameron and Ed Llewellyn, Cameron’s chief of staff, were looking for a trusted hand to beef up the domestic side of the Downing Street operation they turned to their old colleague, Rock. Rock’s influence in Downing Street had ebbed slightly in recent months. Jo Johnson had been brought in over his head to run the Policy Unit.