James Forsyth

It is hard to overstate the level of shock in moderate Labour circles at last night’s YouGov poll showing Jeremy Corbyn heading for victory in the Labour leadership race. Regardless of whether the poll is accurate, they fear that it will damage Labour in two ways. First, it will skew the contest further to the left as Burnham and Cooper both seek to halt the Corbyn advance and to position themselves to pick up second preferences. Secondly, the idea that Corbyn could win is hardly going to reassure those voters who worry about Labour’s economic competence. https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/623619130680320001 Another worry is that the hard left could, seeing how close Corbyn is to victory, sign up en masse to vote in the contest.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/workingwithal-qa-eda/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and George Eaton discuss the rise of Jeremy Corbyn" startat=754] Listen [/audioplayer]It wasn’t meant to work out this way. A month ago, Westminster watched to see if Jeremy Corbyn could get the support of the 35 MPs he needed to enter the Labour leadership race. At the time, it seemed a sort of joke. After all, the people who were lending him their backing weren’t doing so for any great love of Corbyn. As a rule, they either wanted a ‘broad debate’ or thought that the ritual slaughter of the left-wing candidate would make it easier for the new leader to move the party to the centre. A month on, things look very different.

It wasn’t meant to work out this way. A month ago, Westminster watched to see if Jeremy Corbyn could get the support of the 35 MPs he needed to enter the Labour leadership race. At the time, it seemed a sort of joke. After all, the people who were lending him their backing weren’t doing so for any great love of Corbyn. As a rule, they either wanted a ‘broad debate’ or thought that the ritual slaughter of the left-wing candidate would make it easier for the new leader to move the party to the centre. A month on, things look very different. Corbyn now has the endorsement of Unite, the most powerful union in the country, and several others.

The government has confirmed that it is pulling tomorrow’s vote on the relaxation of the hunting ban. A Downing Street source is frank about why they are doing this, the vote would be lost with the SNP voting against and so there’s not much point in having it. Indeed, even the Countryside Alliance accepts that no good would come from pressing on. This brings to an end David Cameron’s attempt to allow a full pack of hounds to be used to flush out a fox, first revealed by Melissa Kite in The Spectator. What has done for it is the SNP’s opportunism in saying that it will vote against a measure that simply brings the law in England and Wales into line with that in Scotland.

The meeting of Eurozone leaders in Brussels has just broken up. There is still no agreement on a new deal for Greece. In these circumstances, the European Central Bank will not lend more to the Greek banks, so they will remain closed. What has been announced is a full summit of all 28 EU members for Sunday. Now, the significance of this is that Greece stops being an issue just for the Eurozone and becomes one for the whole of the EU when it leaves the Euro. The presence of all the EU leaders on Sunday will mean that the issue of a Greek exit from the single currency can be discussed. The Eurozone leaders struck different notes on how likely a deal was as they left.

Greece has voted No in the referendum and resoundingly so. With more than 90 percent of the votes counted, No is leading 61% to 39%. The result is a massive humiliation for Eurozone leaders who have spent the last few days telling the Greeks to vote Yes and warning them that this was really a referendum on whether the country should stay in the single currency or not. Tonight, Syriza have been making clear that the Greek government intends to remain within the Euro. However, the German government is making clear that it is not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal.

This time tomorrow, we’ll have had the first projections from the Greek referendum. We will have an idea as to whether the country has said Oxi or Nai. At the moment, the polls make the referendum too close to call. Whatever the result, there’ll be no quick deal between Greece and its creditors. But if the Greeks vote Oxi, then the country could be forced out of the Euro by the ECB cutting off assistance to its banks. If that were to happen, then the Eurozone would have to move to integrate very quickly to prevent Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France being pushed towards the Euro exit the next time there’s a fiscal crisis. This would almost certainly require a new EU treaty, which would provide Cameron with quite an opportunity.

Few European leaders have been luckier than David Cameron. First he was sent Ed Miliband. Now events in Greece may be about to present him with a solution to the thorniest problem of his second term: how to negotiate a new form of EU membership for Britain that the Tory party can rally behind come the referendum. The Prime Minister’s critics delight in claiming that his European problem is of his own making. Two years ago, he promised a referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017. But he couldn’t have survived without making such a pledge. It was his way of stopping his party arguing about Europe; without it, he could not have gone into the election claiming that he led a united party.

Good news for those who value the Michael Gove education agenda, Rachel Wolf — the founder of the New Schools Network — is joining the Number 10 policy unit. Wolf, who has spent the last few years in the States working on education technology, will be covering tech, innovation and education. As her work at the New Schools Network demonstrated, where she helped get the first wave of free schools up and running, Wolf gets things done. The fact that Camilla Cavendish, the former Sunday Times columnist who is now in Number 10, has hired her, suggests that Cavendish wants a series of practical ideas from the Policy Unit rather than just blue sky thinking.