James Forsyth

Whenever the Parliamentary Labour Party meets, journalists gather outside the room in the hope that those leaving the meeting will reveal what went or that the argument will get so heated that they will be able to hear what is going on behind closed doors. Those of my colleagues who turned up to tonight’s PLP meeting were very much in luck. George Eaton reports that Ben Bradshaw, the former culture secretary, left declaring the meeting ‘a total f*** shambles’ and that Emily Thornberry could be heard loudly upbraiding MPs for texting journalists about what was going on inside this supposedly private meeting. So, why was his meeting so rowdy? Well, many MPs are still furious about having had a Jeremy Corbyn leadership imposed on them by the party membership.

For all the leadership positioning, one of the striking things about Tory conference in Manchester was the level of agreement about what the party’s strategy should be. There was almost no one calling for the party to move right. Instead, the emphasis was on how the party could expand its electoral coalition. Boris Johnson and George Osborne may have very different styles, but the argument of their speeches was essentially the same: the Tories have to show that they are the party for low paid workers. This determination to look for new converts, which was the defining feature of David Cameron’s speech too, is a product of the election campaign.

The Tories had a good few days in Manchester. But one Tory had a particularly good week, Boris Johnson. A week ago, Boris looked becalmed. As we said in the Spectator, he was struggling to make the transition from being Mayor of London to being both the Mayor and an MP. But this week, he has delivered the best speech of his political life, shown new Tory MPs his talents, and renewed his relationship with Tory activists. It was telling that when Cameron paid tribute to Boris during the leader’s speech, the hall gave him a standing ovation. Now, the tricky thing for Boris will be coming up with a follow up to this and he still has several months where he has to be in two places at once, City Hall and the Commons. But he finds himself in a far better position than he did a week ago.

This speech was authentic Cameron. It was the most modernising speech that he has given since becoming Prime Minister and an attempt to reposition the Tories as the party of ‘true equality’. It was a return to the approach that characterised his leadership before the financial crash of 2008. Traditional Tory thinking has always been that if you work hard you get on, that you can pull yourselves up by your bootstraps. But this speech argued that for some people in society this simply isn’t true, that they find their opportunities blocked at every turn. Cameron cited the example of a black girl who had to change her name to Elizabeth before she got any job interviews.

Boris Johnson’s speech today was the best that I have ever heard him give. It was a potent cocktail of political vision, humour and optimism. But the most significant line it was about Europe. He declared that: ‘It should be up to this parliament and this country – not to Jean-Claude Juncker – to decide if too many people are coming here’ It is impossible to read this as anything other than a demand that freedom of movement rules are fundamentally altered as part of the UK’s renegotiation with the EU.

As the Tory tribe prepares to gather in Manchester, the chatter is about two things: who will succeed David Cameron and what will happen in the EU referendum. These two issues are, obviously, inextricably linked. If Britain votes Out in the EU referendum, a prospect which while still unlikely has become more likely in recent weeks, Cameron is unlikely to be succeeded by someone who campaigned for In—as Fraser points out in the Telegraph today. But, so far, none of the expected leadership candidates have indicated that they will campaign for Out. George Osborne is one of the lead figures in the renegotiation and has always been clear that he thinks that there is a deal to be done.

When David Cameron announced that he wouldn’t serve a third term, he made it inevitable that Westminster would spend much of his second term wondering about who would succeed him. Well, in the new Spectator, Nicky Morgan becomes the first Cabinet Minister to make clear that she is interested in standing when Cameron steps down. She says that ‘A lot of it will depend on family’ but makes clear that she believes there needs to be a female candidate in the race and hopes ‘that, in the not too distant future, there will be another female leader of a main Westminster political party’. What I was most struck about when interviewing Morgan was how, when I asked her what her pitch for the top would be, she didn’t shy away from the question.

If Jeremy Corbyn’s speech yesterday was the musings of a left-wing activist, Tom Watson’s today was that of someone who is interested in winning elections. Watson made clear to the conference delegates that what matters is getting back into office and set about explaining how he thought Labour could do that. He told the hall, that if they weren’t interested in representing small business owners, then they wouldn’t be in government again. He said that after its ‘summer of introspection’, it was time for Labour to get back to making its case to the country again. It was a strikingly different tone to Corbyn’s yesterday. Watson clearly has no intention of practising the ‘kinder, gentler’ politics that Corbyn has called for this week.

Steve Hilton is, I understand, returning to help with David Cameron’s conference speech. Cameron’s one time political guru is now based in California, where he has launched the US political fundraising website Crowdpac. But he has made a point of returning each year to work on Cameron’s conference speech before heading back to the US. The decision to invite him to help out this year is particularly interesting given his view that Jeremy Corbyn is being underestimated. Hilton tweeted a few days ago that ‘cynical, pompous Westminster bubble trashes #Corbyn first week because he can't play their game. not a pretty sight’.

When the Liberal Democrats voted for Tim Farron as their next leader, they didn’t know that the Labour party was going to elect Jeremy Corbyn. If they had known that, they might have been more tempted to go for Norman Lamb, the more centrist candidate in the race and the one with ministerial experience. But Farron has adapted pretty well to the new, post-Corbyn landscape. His speech today contained plenty of pops at Labour for ‘abandoning serious politics, serious economics’ and choosing instead the ‘glory of self-indulgent opposition’. Farron, by contrast, tried to cast the Liberal Democrats as the party that is both competent and caring.

One Boris supporter asked me this week, 'How bad do you think things are?’ The thing under discussion, it quickly turned out, was Boris’s leadership prospects. Among his camp followers, there is growing concern that Boris is being left behind in the leadership race. The Mayor’s chances have certainly taken a knock in recent months. First, the Tories winning a majority exploded the argument that they needed someone with Boris’s 'beyond politics' appeal to win outright. Then, Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader changed the calculation about the 2020 election for the Tories. Suddenly, a safety first approach - eg a non-Boris one - seems much more appealing. But there are signs that Boris is preparing to strike some distinctive positions.