Jacob Heilbrunn

Jacob Heilbrunn

Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest. He lives in Washington DC

There is no upside for Trump if he’s arrested

It’s getting Stormy for Donald Trump. In a lengthy message on his TruthSocial site on Saturday morning, Trump announced that he expects that the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, will indict and arrest him on Tuesday for his hush money payment scheme to his former, if brief, inamorata Stormy Daniels. “Protest, take our nation back,” he urged. But Trump’s urges may not be widely shared. It's hard to avoid the feeling that Trump misses the shock and awe of January 6, when his loyal followers stormed the Capitol to try to overturn the election of Joe Biden. That rebellion turned Trump into the ultimate Washington outsider, a revolt against the very government he was supposed to lead.

The contrast between Biden’s and Putin’s speeches

The contrast between the two presidents could hardly be starker. One is dwelling in his own dream palace, indulging fantasies about a return to superpower status while transforming his dismal fiefdom into a larger North Korea. The other is on a roll, creating a new grand alliance to prevent his foe from claiming suzerainty over Ukraine and engaging in further territorial predation. In his state of the nation address on Tuesday, Vladimir Putin served up his usual nauseating soup of anti-Western conspiracy theories, complete with references to Ukraine’s “neo-Nazi regime” and a Western “totalitarian” mission. If anyone knows anything about totalitarian impulses, it’s Putin himself.

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The FBI descends on Biden’s beach house

Search’s up at the Biden beach house. President Biden’s personal attorney Bob Bauer explains, “Today, with the President’s full support and cooperation, the DOJ is conducting a planned search of his home in Rehoboth, Delaware.” A bevy of black SUVs and sedans swarmed around the Biden property, once the site of happy days where the Biden clan congregated, now the target of the FBI. My heart goes out not to Biden, who was obviously lax in his handling of classified documents, but to the poor slobs in the FBI who have to tromp through his various homes in search of papers that he was supposed to have handed over to the National Archives in January 2017. It’s difficult to think of a more tedious task.

Biden is the war president Ukraine needs

Joe Biden is upping the ante in Ukraine. Even as Vladimir Putin directs a fresh barrage of missiles, Biden is apparently planning a trip to Europe next month to deliver a major address on the anniversary of the Russian invasion and announce a substantial military aid package for Kyiv. Good for him. A speech in Poland or Lithuania — both leaders in the struggle against Russian aggression — will strengthen NATO and demonstrate that a year into the conflict, unity, not dissension, prevails when it comes to confronting Putin’s revanchist ambitions. At every step, Biden has checked Putin, who assumed he could invade and occupy Ukraine in a thrice.

The Brooks Brothers riot comes to Brazil

So the Brooks Brothers riot has arrived in Brasilia. That riot, a precursor to January 6, took place in Miami-Dade County in November 2000 and was led by Republican staffers intent on disrupting the recount of votes. On Sunday, with Jair Bolsonaro hunkered down in Florida, his followers thought it would be a neat idea to follow suit, trashing the presidential palace, the National Congress and Supreme Federal Court. A motley crew of Americans helped stoke the madness. “The whole thing smells,” said one visitor to Steve Bannon’s podcast following the first round of voting in October. It was the very same farrago of lies that circulated after America’s presidential election took hold. There was the nonsense about a “stolen election.

The Republican party goes to war with itself

From our UK edition

Florida's governor Ron DeSantis declared as he was sworn in for a second time yesterday that, under his reign, Florida 'will never surrender to the woke mob'. Meanwhile, woke or not, a different mob was disrupting the proceedings in Washington, D.C. at the nation’s Capitol. The same lawmakers who plotted to disrupt Joe Biden’s inauguration as president are now training their firepower on Kevin McCarthy. Right now, no House of Representatives exists. No House speaker exists. No committees have been formed. Nada. To the delight of their political foes, Republicans aren’t battling Democrats; they are battling themselves. Three times McCarthy sent up his name. Three times he was rejected. A perfect whiff.

Could Joe Biden’s Ukraine support define his presidency?

With his whirlwind visit to Washington, Volodymyr Zelensky cemented his bromance with Joe Biden. Even as MAGA Republicans have been sniping at Ukraine — Donald Trump, Jr. derided Zelensky on Wednesday as an “ungrateful welfare queen” — Biden declared that he will support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” Welcoming his Ukrainian counterpart to the White House, he went out of his way to depict support for Ukraine as bipartisan and unflinching. Like Herman Melville in his novel White-Jacket, Biden believes that “we bear the ark of the liberties of the world.” The Russian invasion and Ukrainian defiance are the making of Joe Biden’s presidency. Biden may well go down in history as the man who finally drove the stake through the heart of the Russian empire.

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January 6 Committee turns Trump from predator to prey

From our UK edition

With the January 6 Committee’s recommendation to the Justice Department last night to prosecute Donald Trump on four counts of insurrection, obstruction and conspiracy, he has gone from predator to prey. Like Jay Gatsby, who believed in the ‘orgastic future that recedes before us year by year’, he has never doubted in his abilities to gull the gullible, to fool the foolish. But his green light has now turned red as the greatest show on earth, or at least America, is about to come to an abrupt terminus.

Herschel Walker’s loss shows Trump’s fortunes have gone south

Have Donald Trump’s presidential aspirations gone south? The failure of Herschel Walker to become the next senator from Georgia has further dented Trump’s image as the omniscient grandmaster of the GOP. One after another, his candidates in the midterm elections, ranging from Kari Lake to Doug Mastriano, from Dr. Oz to Blake Masters, have proved to be losers. The indictment of the Trump Organization on no less than 17 counts on Tuesday does not help Trump’s image either. Nor does Special Counsel Jack Smith who is relentlessly amassing evidence about Trump’s serial crimes as the leader of the January 6 failed coup and his illegal retention of top secret documents.

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Why Trump’s antisemite controversy just won’t die

Donald Trump has caused something of a hugger-mugger over his last supper with Kanye West, or Ye, and Nick Fuentes. A variety of Jewish organizations are either wringing their collective hands (if they’ve been supporters of Trump) or outright denouncing him (if they’ve long viewed him as an odious figure). A few Republican leaders, including former vice president Mike Pence, who said it was “wrong” for Trump to break bread with the duo, are voicing their disapprobation. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie tweeted on Saturday: “This is just awful, unacceptable conduct from anyone, but most particularly from a former President and current candidate.” Unlike previous Trump controversies, this one does not appear to be subsiding after a 24-hour news cycle.

Donald Trump, accidental Paul Revere

Is he a stone cold loser? The Wall Street Journal editorial page, not to mention its owner Rupert Murdoch, certainly appear to think so. The verdict on Thursday was crushing: “He has now flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.” The “he” in question is, of course, Donald J. Trump, or, as President Joe Biden likes to put it, the former guy. Except that he isn’t really. So far, the Trump balloon has failed to pop, at least in the GOP, propelled ever upwards by fresh injections of helium, or, more prosaically, cash from an obedient base. The conundrum that Trump presents has long been that the only thing worse than him serving as leader of the GOP might be him not heading it.

Steve Bannon is off to the slammer

Tabloid conservatism is the felicitous phrase that Sam Tanenhaus, one of our most astute analysts of the modern right, gave to the approach that Donald Trump, who faces various possible indictments, and Steve Bannon, who has just been sentenced to four months in prison and a measly $6,500 fine for failing to testify before Congress’s January 6 Committee, concocted as an alternative to the stuffy establishment mode that had prevailed in the GOP. A self-proclaimed populist, Bannon turned the website Breitbart.com into a juggernaut on the right and propelled the Trump campaign to victory. Absent his hard-edged approach, which included bringing various former Bill Clinton inamoratas to a debate with Hillary, it seems doubtful that Trump would have won in 2016.

What does the 6 January subpoena mean for Trump?

From our UK edition

Poor Donald Trump. The 6 January committee has subpoenaed him. The New York attorney general is seeking to put the kibosh on his new Trump II organisation. The Supreme Court has rejected his bid to stymie the Mar-a-Lago investigation. What next? Will it turn out that Jared or even — gasp! — Ivanka has been ratting him out to the feds about his hoarding of secret documents at Mar-a-Lago? Far from ending with his ousting from the White House, the Trump show has become an unending pageant of new plot twists. The central actor remains Trump and Trump alone, intent on hogging the spotlight in one way or another.

A visit to Louis Armstrong’s old home

The New York Times recently started a new series about introducing a friend to jazz in five minutes with a tribute to Duke Ellington. In many ways, Ellington is a sound choice. He was the bandleader par excellence, a brilliantly inventive composer who formed much of the modern jazz vocabulary. But matters can’t rest there. In any assessment of jazz’s founding fathers, Louis Armstrong has to stand as the most influential figure. Both his trumpet and voice are simply inimitable. A recent visit to his modest home, which is now a museum, during a trip to New York with my family offered a reminder of the magnetic attraction Armstrong continues to exert.

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Biden goes nuclear

At a swanky fundraiser in Manhattan, President Joe Biden alluded to the prospect of “Armageddon.” The biblical reference was not intended to woo the Christian evangelicals who form part of the base of the Republican Party, but to alert bien-pensant liberal opinion that something a trifle more threatening than global warming looms large in world politics. For the “first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use [of a] nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue down the path they are going," Biden said. For anyone with lingering memories of the Cold War, his remarks about the prospect that Russian president Vladimir Putin might reach for the nuclear button was bound to stir alarm coupled with — dare I say it? — a smidgen of pleasure.

Did Russia sabotage its own pipelines?

From our UK edition

It almost seems worthy of the opening scene in a Bond film. Vital Russian gas pipelines running beneath the Baltic Sea close to Denmark and Sweden are the victims of sabotage. The two countries have warned of leaks from both Nord Stream 1 and 2 after seismologists suggested there had been underwater explosions. No one wants to claim credit for the deed – yet. Who is the Blofeld behind this dastardly scheme? Former Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski, no fan of Russia, sardonically declared on Twitter, ‘Thank you, USA’. That set the conspiracy theorists off. As has a video resurfacing of Joe Biden in February promising America would put an end to Nord Stream 2.  Who is the Blofeld behind this dastardly scheme?

Giorgia Meloni is no springtime for Italian fascism

Is it springtime for fascism in Europe? First, it was Sweden. Now, it’s Italy. To judge by the reaction to Giorgia Meloni’s victory in the Italian elections on Sunday, the moment to say arrivederci to democracy has arrived. “Giorgia Meloni will be a minister-president whose political examples will be Viktor Orbàn and Donald Trump,” Katharina Barley, the vice-president of the European Parliament, declared. Maybe so, but will she actually be able to transform her country? Fratelli d’Italia, the Brothers of Italy, is a nationalist party that traces its roots back to Mussolini and is led by the charismatic Meloni. It's about to play a starring role in the Italian political firmament.

Trump flails around for a lifeline

So the big guy wants a donnybrook then. It began with Lindsey Graham announcing on Fox News a day or so ago that there will — not may — be “riots in the streets” if Donald Trump is indicted by the Justice Department. Trump then reposted Graham’s remark on his badly failing social media outlet Truth Social, which, like most of his ventures, appears to be headed for bankruptcy, only this time there’s no Papa Trump to show up at the casino to buy a stack of chips to bail out the scapegrace son. Now, Trump has gone on something of an internet bender, indulging his thwarted Twitter impulses by posting over sixty times on Truth Social. If the venture goes belly up, it won’t be because Trump ignored it. As Trump tries to seize the spotlight, the GOP is squirming.

Pelosi is right to put China on notice

House speaker Nancy Pelosi has always had a flair for the dramatic. During the Trump presidency, for example, she ostentatiously tore up his State of the Union speech. But for sheer spectacle, it will be hard for Pelosi to top her “will she, won’t she” visit to Taiwan this week. In spite of the suspense, there was never really any doubt about it. For weeks China has issued dire warnings about the perils of her visit. So, as it happens, have several commentators, including The Spectator’s Freddy Gray, whom I debated on the Americano podcast, and who seems to have a bad case of the collywobbles about the Pelosi trip.

Is Nancy Pelosi about to cause world war three?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

Freddy Gray speaks with Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of The National Interest, ahead of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. They discuss if this is a turning point in US relations with Taiwan, whether we are heading for World War Three, or if Pelosi is calling China’s bluff.