Jacob Heilbrunn

The real story about Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech today may not be what he says, but that Melania is showing up to attend it. Melania, left livid at reports claiming Trump paid porn star Stormy Daniels £90,000 ($130,000) in hush money on the eve of the 2016 election, skipped Davos and has stayed out of the public eye since. She tweeted a picture of herself with a Marine on her thirteenth wedding anniversary even as Daniels hosted a show at a nightclub entitled 'Making America Horny Again'. Daniels will be interviewed tonight by talk-show host Jimmy Kimmel after Trump delivers his speech.

Donald Trump is playing hard to get. Asked yesterday at the White House whether he would meet with Special Counsel Robert Mueller for an interview, Trump began back-pedalling on his previous and emphatic '100 per cent'. Now, Trump said, 'we’ll see what happens'. For good measure, he threw in a few of his favourite terms of opprobrium such as 'witch hunt’ and 'Democrat hoax'. And in a tweet he lambasted 'Sneaky Dianne Feinstein' and said it was high time for Republicans to 'take control’ of the Russia investigations.

How the mighty have fallen! Only a year ago, Steve Bannon was being feted as the power behind the Trump throne, the stubble-faced grey eminence who would start a trade, if not an actual, war with China and create a new Republican Party that was based on populist rather than corporate interests. Now all that is gone. After a very public defenestration by Trump, which has resulted in him being ousted from Breitbart, Bannon stands almost bereft on the right. Even his former protege and ally, Steve Miller, stuck the shiv into Bannon, declaring on CNN that he is an ‘angry, vindictive’ person whose ‘grotesque comments are so out of touch with reality’. Bannon has no publication, no financial benefactors, and no influence. Or does he?

Will the Trump presidency be replaced by the Winfrey one? The hunt is on for a celebrity to take on Donald Trump and right now America has been seized by feverish speculation that Oprah Winfrey is it. On Sunday night, Winfrey accepted the Cecil B. DeMille Award at the Golden Globes, where she delivered a speech that pointed to 'a time when no one will have to say “Me Too” ever again'. 'A new day', she said, 'is on the horizon'. The kudos keep pouring in. Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin, an inveterate Never Trumper, called it 'spine-tingling'. She’s certainly locked down the Hollywood contingent: Reese Witherspoon said: 'It sounds right'.

The most piquant part of Michael Wolff’s gossipy new book, Fire and Fury: Inside The Trump White House, is the ease with which he insinuated himself into the White House. Wolff explains that Trump initially thought he was interested in landing a job. When Wolff said he actually wanted to write a book about the administration, Trump expressed bafflement that anyone would want to write one but said it was OK for Wolff to talk with administration officials. Fox News is reporting that the communications team 'urged all of the senior advisors to cooperate. They thought this was going to be a positive book for the President'. So Wolff apparently hung out in the lobby of the West Wing and got great access.

Donald Trump is becoming increasingly unbuttoned. Last night, he tweeted referring to Kim Jong–un that: 'I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my button works!’ To Trump, size matters. Yesterday was a big—or bigly—day for Trump. He started it off by taking a swipe at Hillary Clinton’s former aide Huma Abedin, declaring that she should be locked up for email malfeasance, an old charge that he periodically resuscitates. For good measure, he fulminated about the 'Deep State' at the Justice Department that be believes, or purports to believe, is conniving to shield Hillary Clinton from prosecution and to undermine him.

It has not gone unnoticed that a number of commenters to my occasional Spectator blogs harbour keen, if not outright enthusiastic, views of the current occupant of the Oval Office – a touching display of faith that suggests there truly is something special about the relationship between America and the United Kingdom. So in the conciliatory Christmas spirit, I wish to offer five ways that the Donald could surprise his critics and come out on top in the new year. First, the stock market. The professional naysayers are almost unanimous in saying that the era of big gains is over. Then again, they said that last year. What if Trump’s audacious tax cut really works, propelling Reaganite growth? The stock market, in this case, would not have priced in all the forthcoming gains.

'We ex-communists are the only people on your side who know what it’s all about', Arthur Koestler declared in The God That Failed, the volume of essays by lapsed communists that appeared in 1949, the year that the Soviet Union exploded an atomic bomb and China went communist. There’s a certain loftiness to Koestler’s statement that can be rather grating, as though the formal badge of entry to opposing the dark side requires having submitted to darkness in the first place. Indeed, at the outset of the cold war, the historian Hugh Trevor-Roper, who never flirted with the left (unlike many of his British contemporaries) expressed his qualms that more than a few of the ex-communists had retained their commissar-like qualities in opposing their former credo.

It’s starting to look as though the historic mission of Donald Trump, who was a registered member of the Democratic party as late as 2009, is to revive American liberalism. On Tuesday night, Trump, who earlier in the day had tweeted 'Roy Moore will always vote with us', accomplished his most improbable feat since winning the presidency. He helped hand over a Senate seat in Alabama, sweet home Alabama, the reddest of red states, to the Democratic candidate Doug Jones, a supporter of abortion rights and stricter gun controls. And so there was no sweetness for Trump last night. Instead, he had to eat bitterness, as the Chinese saying has it. A presidency that was already lurching unsteadily is now in danger of capsizing completely.

Here we go again. Donald Trump decertified the Iran nuclear deal in October. Now, in another audacious foray into Middle East diplomacy, Trump is waving goodbye to the waiver about moving the American embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. It appears that the former real estate mogul will embark upon one last construction project. If he couldn’t build in Moscow, why not give Jerusalem a go? Overnight, an international Nimby crowd has formed to decry the move. The Palestinians are announcing that it’s the 'kiss of death' to any negotiations about a two-state solution. The Saudis have voiced their firm opposition. Theresa May thinks that 'The status of Jerusalem should be determined in a negotiated settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

As I rode the metro to work this morning, an elderly gentleman holding a sign that read, `Manafort-Flynn. Who’s Next?’ boarded my car at the Judiciary Square stop. It’s a question the Trump administration may be pondering as well. Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has flipped former Trump administration national security adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty today to lying to the FBI, speculation is rife about whom he target next, with much of it centring on Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the president. Thus Bloomberg’s Eli Lake reports that Kushner is being fingered as the person who ordered Flynn to create a backchannel to Russia. For now the administration is trying to depict the day’s events as a rather humdrum affair.

Is the net closing in on Jared Kushner? It is now being reported that Trump's son-in-law received a 'Russian backdoor overture and dinner invite', which he also reportedly forwarded on. Both Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley and Dianne Feinstein are alleging that Kushner did not turn over several important documents to investigators despite numerous requests. If Kushner is engaging in these kind of shenanigans with special counsel Robert Mueller he will be in truly hot water. Kushner's lawyer has said he was 'open to responding to any additional requests'.

The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s press conference yesterday was moronic. Earlier this week, NBC News broke the story that Tillerson, exasperated by Donald Trump’s shenanigans, called him a `moron’ during a meeting in July at the Pentagon. It took the intervention of vice-president Mike Pence, in the role of Trump administration life coach, to counsel Tillerson to remain in his post. Now, months later, Tillerson appeared at the State Department, which he has been steadily working to denude of any remaining diplomats or civil servants, to engage in a self-rectification session, pledging his fealty to Trump as well as his devotion to making America great again. Even Tillerson, however, was unable to pull off the full Road to Canossa.

Beware the Moore. This is the doctrine that establishment Republicans such as the Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell, who poured in millions of dollars to try and defeat Judge Roy Moore’s bid for the Republican Senate primary nomination in Alabama, were preaching in recent months. For good measure, President Trump also backed the current Senator Luther Strange, who was crushed yesterday by Moore. Trump has hastily deleted his tweets supporting Strange, including one declaring that 'Big Luther,’ as Trump likes to call him, was 'shooting up' in the polls after he endorsed him. Now, Trump is tweeting that Moore 'sounds like a really great guy who ran a fantastic race. He will help to #MAGA!’ For Trump, this primary is a mere flesh wound.