Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The Spectator and author of Why We Get the Wrong Politicians. She also presents Radio 4’s Week in Westminster.
Brexit has left the three main parties that stand in England in an existential mess, split not just over the fundamental question of Leave vs Remain, but also over how to approach the deal that Theresa May has brought back from Europe. One of the odder splits tore open today, with Eastbourne MP Stephen Lloyd announcing he was resigning the Liberal Democrat whip so that he could back the government next week.
Theresa May is continuing her efforts today to persuade Tory MPs to back her Brexit deal. It is clear that she is not going to get Commons approval for that deal on Tuesday, and is too late to drop it beforehand without another vote. What’s unclear is whether the Prime Minister is actually making the situation any better. The tally of Tory MPs who have declared in public that they will vote against the deal isn’t falling, but rising, even as backbenchers are summoned into meetings in Number 10 and the Prime Minister appears in the Commons dining rooms to try to sweet talk her party.
One of the promises of Brexit campaigners, famously, was that parliament will ‘take back control’ of laws that affect Britain. Since the referendum result, it has seemed rather more that the government is taking back control, rather than MPs, with the executive (quite naturally) resisting any opportunity for Parliament to have a say in, well, any part of the Brexit deal. This evening, though, MPs handed the government its third defeat of the day on an amendment from former attorney general Dominic Grieve which would give the Commons a say on what happens if (or more probably when) Theresa May’s deal is defeated next week. The plan, which passed 321 to 299 votes, would allow MPs to amend the government’s plan B.
One of the promises of Brexit campaigners, famously, was that parliament will ‘take back control’ of laws that affect Britain. Since the referendum result, it has seemed rather more that the government is taking back control, rather than MPs, with the executive (quite naturally) resisting any opportunity for Parliament to have a say in, well, any part of the Brexit deal. This evening, though, MPs handed the government its third defeat of the day on an amendment from former attorney general Dominic Grieve which would give the Commons a say on what happens if (or more probably when) Theresa May’s deal is defeated next week. The plan, which passed 321 to 299 votes, would allow MPs to amend the government’s plan B.
Could the government have avoided this afternoon’s contempt motion? MPs have voted in favour of holding ministers in contempt of parliament for refusing to publish the Brexit legal advice, and the simple argument is that the only way to avoid this whole debacle would have been to publish the advice. This is, after all, what the Commons voted for, yet ministers chose instead to publish a summary. But a number of the speeches today hinted at a problem that goes far deeper than just the government ignoring the humble address demanding the publication.
Jeremy Corbyn has been clear for a while that Labour will vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal in the Commons. But it's worth keeping an eye on the reaction in his party to the development of a second line in the Labour position, which is that the party has a better plan for Brexit. Today the Labour leader urged the Prime Minister to 'prepare a Plan B', telling the Commons that 'there is a sensible deal that could win the support of this House based on a comprehensive customs union and strong single market deal that protects rights at work and environmental safeguards'.
It only took a few lines of Theresa May's statement to the House of Commons on her Brexit deal before MPs started making dissenting noises all around her. The Prime Minister started by listing the ways in which the deal 'takes back control' for the British people, telling MPs that this included control of Britain's borders, ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, an end to 'vast annual payments we send to Brussels', protecting jobs through a new Free Trade Area, protecting the country's security and maintaining 'the integrity of our United Kingdom, meeting our commitments in Northern Ireland and delivering for the whole UK family, including our Overseas Territories'.
Theresa May is back in the Commons this afternoon updating MPs on her Brexit deal. She’s in the middle of a frenzy of campaigning that makes her efforts during the referendum itself look quite lacklustre (admittedly not hard, given how little effort the then Home Secretary put into that campaign), with phone-ins, newspaper interviews and a bid for a live TV debate on Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn. Tomorrow, May is also going to tour the UK to sell her deal to the public. The Prime Minister’s strategy is to talk over the heads of her warring party and straight to the public, in the hope that at least some of those MPs will heed the real opinions of their constituents and switch to voting for the deal in Parliament.
Tory MPs offered a warmer reception to Theresa May's statement in the Commons this afternoon than they managed during yesterday's Prime Minister's Questions. The Prime Minister herself seemed very confident as she explained today's political declaration to MPs. That's about as far as you can go when looking for signs of success in this afternoon's Commons Brexit drama. For instance, straight after the statement, we received confirmation from Iain Duncan Smith that he and other Brexiteers do still find the Brexit deal unacceptable and will kill it in the Commons.
We found out this morning that The Spectator's Evening Blend email briefing has just passed 50,000 subscribers, making it the best-read email in Westminster. When I set it up shortly after arriving at The Spectator, six years ago, we expected it might be read by a few thousand. It turns out to be rather more popular, its size having almost doubled in a year, and seems to have become essential reading for everyone from the Prime Minister down. We regularly break stories, provide exclusive gossip and - perhaps most importantly in these rather bewildering times - explain what on earth has happened that day in Westminster.
It's 100 years today since women were able to stand for Parliament, and the Women and Equalities Committee marked it with a hearing on the barriers to getting more female MPs. It has only been in the past few years that the total number of women ever elected into Parliament has passed the number of men currently sitting on the green benches, and 32 per cent of MPs are women. This puts the UK at 48 in the world rankings for gender representation in its Parliament, which isn't great. I was one of those giving evidence to the Committee this morning, using research I've conducted for my book, Why We Get The Wrong Politicians.
Is Theresa May about to face a vote of no confidence in her leadership? The Prime Minister is acting as though nothing has changed, to coin a phrase, focusing on selling her Brexit plan to business leaders at the CBI, rather than getting too bogged down with the internal problems with her party. But those trying to organise the move against her had been making noises all day that they may have the requisite number of letters calling for such a vote by this evening. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case. Indeed, today a number of Brexiteers including Owen Paterson and Iain Duncan Smith have been holding talks in Number 10 along with David Trimble about a proposed solution to the Brexit deal that might prevent a leadership contest.
Amber Rudd left the Home Office over the Windrush scandal and has joined the Work and Pensions department just as its flagship benefits reform is under fire from all angles. The new Secretary of State spent most of her first session at the dispatch box this afternoon answering questions on Universal Credit - and she had arrived determined to strike a rather different tone from her predecessor. Esther McVey, who resigned from the role last week, had garnered a reputation for being rather hardline when dealing with criticisms of the benefit roll-out, while also managing to give far more away about some of its problems than Number 10 would have liked.
One of the more surreal moments of Theresa May’s day so far has been the Prime Minister having to break off from the meltdown of her party to join Prince Charles's birthday celebrations at Buckingham Palace. The Prime Minister can’t have felt particularly like waving a champagne flute around to salute the heir to the throne while her own MPs plot to remove her crown as Tory leader. The announcement from Jacob Rees-Mogg that he is submitting a letter calling for a vote of no confidence suggests that the European Research Group believes there are the numbers in the wider Conservative Party for May to lose that vote.
It will be reasonably low down on Theresa May's agenda this morning, but replacing the ministers who have resigned so far is something she will have to think about soon. The Prime Minister has always tried to maintain a balance of Brexiteers and Remainers in cabinet in order to keep both wings of her party happy, but this is naturally going to be much harder given the Brexiteers are currently walking out. Then there’s the need to find new ministers who will stay loyal. This desire to maintain a Brexit balance and find loyalists isn’t necessarily that good for the job of actually governing, though. Esther McVey has left the Work and Pensions department at a critical time for its flagship policy.
Philip Hammond held the Budget today to avoid a bunch of Halloween jokes about a zombie economy and so on. To compensate, the Chancellor brought a bunch of random sentences in fancy dress as ‘jokes’. There were inexplicable quips about poaching rabbits, a medley of toilet puns accompanying funding for keeping public conveniences open, and the strangest of all: ‘fiscal Phil says fiscal rules, OK.’ What the Chancellor hadn't dressed up, though, were the series of announcements in this Budget. They weren’t fancy. Or radical. There was some political appropriation, with Hammond trying to deal with a few Labour threats by stealing their policies.
It's over a year since the #MeToo scandal of sexual harassment broke. It has shaken up our culture and relationships in so many ways over the past 12 months. It isn't going away, either, as the allegations about Sir Philip Green this week have shown. But it has now reached a point where it could either improve or severely damage the way in which serious allegations are dealt with justly. The whole movement has been extremely messy. This was inevitable, given the number of people, mostly women, who have had to put up with being ignored or belittled when they complain even about serious sexual assault, let alone more subtle harassment.
The consensus in the Conservative party is that Theresa May's visit to the 1922 Committee last night hasn't materially changed anything. Those who want her gone are still plotting her demise. A larger group of her MPs are very frustrated and unhappy. And there are still a good number of loyalists prepared to make supportive noises about the Prime Minister in the Chamber or 'crunch' meetings like the one last night. What this does suggest is that there won't be another flood of letters calling for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister, though the working theory remains that it is more likely that the threshold of 48 is reached by accident rather than as a result of a concerted campaign.
Richmond Park is an eerie place at this time of year. It’s not just that it’s the deer rutting season, when huge stags fight over their harems, charging heavily about the misty grassland and bellowing as they go. It’s also the herds of photographers looming out of that mist, as strange as the prehistoric cries of the deer. Deer rutting is one of the most spectacular sights of autumn, and if you’re an amateur wildlife photographer like me, it’s hard to resist the attraction of rising early to photograph a 200kg monster roaring into the dawn. I did just that last week, pedalling my way to the park in the morning gloaming, tripod on my back and a bag full of camera batteries. Shortly after I arrived, I heard my first stag.
Given relations with her own party, Theresa May will have been far more worried about the second half of Prime Minister's Questions than the first. On the basis of the backbench questions that were asked, the session went pretty well. Only one Tory MP raised Brexit at all, and that was Jacob Rees-Mogg, who asked for assurances that the European Court of Justice would not get the final say on cases arising from the Brexit withdrawal agreement. May was able to tell the Chamber that this wasn't true - though the Sun's report this morning on the matter was pretty strong - and that was all for Brexit. Instead, her MPs asked a range of constituency-based questions and didn't cause trouble, which bodes well for tonight's 1922 Committee meeting.
