Isabel Hardman

As expected, the government has just announced more areas of England are to move to Tier 4 from Boxing Day in an attempt to slow the spread of the new variant of coronavirus. But rather more unexpectedly, Health Secretary Matt Hancock told this afternoon's Downing Street press conference that a second, highly transmissible, new strain which 'appears to have mutated further' has been found in two people who were contacts of cases who had travelled from South Africa over the past few weeks. Hancock was at pains to seem apologetic to those affected by the new restrictions, telling people in those areas that the government was 'truly sorry'.

Tomorrow will see the next flashpoint in the row between Conservative MPs and the government over the tiered system, with the publication of new allocations today, following a review of the restrictions. Backbenchers have been led to believe by ministers that there will be a more localised approach to the tiers, which is something they called for in the recent rebellion on the vote reintroducing the system. In conversations with individual MPs, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has accepted that the decision this week to split parts of Essex and Hertfordshire in order to put the areas with high infection rates into Tier 3 set a precedent for the rest of the country.

Sir Keir Starmer has called on Boris Johnson to hold an emergency Cobra meeting, arguing that the current plans to ease coronavirus restrictions over Christmas should be reviewed. The Labour leader said this afternoon that his party would support the government if it decides that tougher measures are needed. He stops short of calling for the Christmas easing to be cancelled, presumably because he'd rather not be the political grinch in this case. But he is still pushing Johnson. In a letter to the Prime Minister, Starmer argues that the current tier system has not been working and that the government cannot ignore the rising cases.

Tonight's coronavirus press conference was very awkward for the government. It highlighted the bizarre tension between what is happening with the virus, and what ministers have decided is feasible in terms of measures to contain it. While Matt Hancock and the government scientists set out the 'exponential rises' in cases in London, the emergence of a new variant of the virus which seems to be spreading rapidly, and the risks for the NHS in January and February, they were all unable to follow these bleak lines with anything other than a plea for people to choose to do as little as possible over Christmas.

Sir Keir Starmer will start setting out his vision for the Labour party in the new year, Coffee House understands. The Labour leader will ‘move onto another level’, according to party sources, talking about what life under a Starmer government might look like, and encouraging his frontbenchers to make policy announcements. Up to this point, Starmer has had a strangely slow start as leader because he has been largely in reactive mode, responding to the government’s own response to the pandemic. This has made it easier for him to avoid awkward confrontations in his party over policy, with the stand-off over anti-Semitism being the only real ruction.

Matt Hancock sounded like a man who had just been rescued from a rapidly sinking ship when he welcomed the start of the vaccine programme in the Commons this afternoon. Almost visibly dripping with relief, the Health Secretary told MPs that it was an 'emotional' day, and paid tribute to his civil servants and team in the Department of Health for being 'amazing'. The Health Secretary has naturally had one of the most challenging years of anyone to hold that post, and he hasn't always had the back-up of his colleagues as he has tried to grapple with the pandemic.

The Covid wars in the Tory party aren’t going away any time soon, not least because MPs are expecting a change of policy on the tiered system later this month. But rebels aren't just demanding a more localised approach to the tier system. They also want a change of tone from ministers. There was fury in the party when the government used Public Health England analysis predicting 4,000 deaths a day by December to justify the second English lockdown. This model has become known among lockdown sceptics as the ‘dodgy dossier’ because of problems with the data used — yet it has still surfaced during presentations to backbenchers from officials.

Boris Johnson is wrong if he thinks this week's Tory rebellion on the tiered system marks the end of his party management problems. In fact, Tuesday night's rebels tell me that the main purpose of the vote was to increase the likelihood that a good number of areas will be moved down a tier when the current allocations are reviewed on 16 December.  'If there had just been 20 or 30 of us, the likelihood of getting lots of places moved would have been pretty small,' explains one senior rebel. 'But the fact that we surprised them with the strength of support makes it more likely, so those of us who rebelled have done our colleagues a favour.