Isabel Hardman

As the country approaches a general election, a party leader, desperate to reassure a key group of voters, makes a very silly pledge. He is as unequivocal as possible that, in spite of the big spending implications in a time of economic crisis, he will stick to this silly pledge to keep his target voters happy. Months later, a Coalition has formed, and those target voters are enraged because that promise turned out to be worth little more than the paper it was written on. We all know that this is what happened with the Lib Dems and their extraordinarily stupid pledge to block rises in tuition fees.

This week's developments over gay marriage have left a febrile atmosphere in the Conservative party. As Fraser wrote yesterday, David Cameron seems to have driven his party 'quite mad' by pursuing the policy, and the mood in the tearoom after Maria Miller's statement on Tuesday certainly seems to have underlined that. I understand from a number of MPs that there was an 'excitable' confrontation between a member of the 2010 intake and one of the members of the Freedom to Marry group. The new MP was irritated by the position that his colleague had taken and was jabbing his finger angrily as he spoke.

The debate over benefit uprating will run and run because both sides think they are winning. George Osborne thinks the public resent generous benefits rises. Liam Byrne and Ed Balls want to call this a 'strivers tax' and think blue collar workers will fall into their arms. Byrne told Coffee House yesterday that Labour will be hurt opposing to the Welfare Uprating Bill. I understand that the Shadow Cabinet reached its decision after YouGov's polling showing C2DE  voters  - the three lowest socio-economic groups - saying benefits should have been increased in line with inflation. Osborne's Bill would increase welfare by 1pc, behind expected inflation.

By this stage in the Coalition, everyone would have expected at least one major bust-up between George Osborne and Vince Cable. But his evidence to today's Treasury Select Committee suggested that the Chancellor isn't so much involved in a stand-off with the Business Secretary as he is taking on his point of view. It was significant how many times Osborne had to explain a softening in what were previously hard-and-fast economic rules, and hard-and-fast policies. His refusal to rule out replacing the Bank of England's inflation target with a growth target is the most significant sign of a coalescing between the two men.

After giving her statement to the House of Commons on the government's plans for gay marriage, Maria Miller held a meeting with Tory MPs. I understand that the meeting was a question-and-answer session designed to help reassure Tories about the 'quadruple lock'. It was well-attended, although apparently the Secretary of State was around 25 minutes late, which meant Peter Bone left early to make another appointment. This was immediately interpreted as a walkout in protest from Bone, who is one of the more vocal opponents of the legislation. I spoke to Bone this evening, who said 'I wasn't storming out: it was a private Q&A meeting with Maria Miller who was 25 minutes late'. But even though he didn't storm out, Bone is still not happy or reassured by today's announcements.

David Cameron paid a rare visit to those hacks that lurk in the Commons press gallery for lunch today. In between cracking jokes about how 'as you know, I have very little control over what Boris does', and tantalising us with references to his EU speech, which is coming 'soon', the Prime Minister made an interesting admission about the way his government is communicating with voters about the difficulties in the economy: 'They are not expecting miracles. I think what people hear is a rather hard, technocratic message. They are not hearing - in fact, this is our fault - they are not hearing enough about why this matters and who this is for.' He did say that the Autumn Statement did demonstrate that the government was on voters' side, with its measures on fuel and personal tax allowances.