Isabel Hardman

So the Conservative party's refusal to lurch to the right has, in the past few days, resulted in stories about the European Court of Human Rights, EU referendum legislation, limiting access to benefits for migrants, and NHS tourism. All of these issues preoccupy the right wing of the Conservative party. David Cameron yesterday said the Tories would remain in the Common ground (and Fraser wondered whether the PM had realised that he wasn't taking his own advice on this), but these briefings suggest Cameron is trying to find common ground with his own MPs as much as with the public. If these policies aren't about a lurch to the right, they are certainly about a lurch to the backbenches.

One of the lessons from last week's Eastleigh by-election - and indeed the Italian elections - is that voters don't like politicians at the moment. It's easy for those like Nigel Farage to mop up this anti-politics sentiment in the same way as Nick Clegg could say before the 2010 election 'the more they attack each other, the more they sound the same'. But how does the Conservative party try to appeal to those voters fed up with the Establishment of which it is so clearly a part? David Cameron can hardly start attacking himself, after all. There is one thing that the Tories could do - and which their backbenchers are pushing for - which would at least undermine a sense that the party is tied up in the cosy Establishment.

Don't panic, don't panic! But are the Tories actually panicking about the Eastleigh result? Coffee House readers will have seen Stewart Jackson's call on the government to get more robust on Romanian and Bulgarian migrants, and Gavin Barwell's plea to his colleagues to stay calm. But backbenchers aren't really flapping their arms in terror today, other than taking positions we've already heard them take. Even backbenchers who really don't like David Cameron are clear that even though coming third is 'deeply disappointing', it's not a catalyst for disaster right now. But that doesn't mean Cameron's opponents don't have some sort of vision of how the next few months could pan out.

So now that the polls have closed in Eastleigh, here are the likely scenarios for tonight's Eastleigh by-election result, and what each combination will mean: A) 1. Tories 2. Liberal Democrats 3. UKIP It's stating the obvious that this is the best outcome for David Cameron, showing that the Tories can win in those target Lib Dem seats, and that they can beat a confident UKIP, no matter what grumpy backbenchers say. But it's a disaster for Nick Clegg: in fact, any scenario other than victory is a disaster for Nick Clegg. For Nigel Farage, coming third when his party has been so confident, particularly in the last 24 hours, about a surge in support, will be a dampener, but it will also confirm that he was right to not have stood himself and face a second defeat in the same constituency.

So Nick Clegg is annoyed with those 'self-appointed detectives' who are 'trying to piece together events that happened many years ago' on the Lord Rennard allegations. It's not a surprise, really, that the Lib Dem leader is annoyed with journalists at the moment: after all, if it hadn't been for Cathy Newman's report last week, the Lib Dems wouldn't be in this awkward position of having to piece the allegations together themselves through an inquiry. Which says something interesting about the party's attitude towards the allegations themselves, does it not, given the women involved, irritated by the party's response to the complaints they say they tried to make, decided that only a journalist, not an HR officer or a party colleague, could improve the situation.

George Osborne was playing historian today as he responded to Ed Balls' urgent question on the credit rating downgrade, charting Labour's role in the UK's loss of the AAA rating; particularly the deficit it bequeathed the Coalition. But he was in revisionist mood when it came to his own stance. As Ed Balls repeatedly leant across the despatch box and tried to hand the Chancellor a copy of the Tory 2010 manifesto in which the party lists 'we will safeguard Britain's credit rating' as the first of its eight benchmarks, George Osborne told MPs that what he had always said was important was the confidence of the markets. MPs were largely in a tribal mood.