Isabel Hardman

Beyond the slew of amusing 'No man's hand' photos of the beleaguered François Hollande trying and failing to find support from other European leaders, there are a number of implications for the British political scene of the beleaguered French leader's latest crisis, in which he has been forced to admit that taxes have been too heavy while watching his country's manufacturing sector fall behind that of Greece and borrowing costs rise. The first is that David Cameron has a perfect case study of what happens when you stick your fingers in your ears and repeatedly say there is an alternative.

Ed Miliband did vow to 'relentlessly' focus on the cost of living crisis facing hardworking families up and down the country (hopefully someone will develop a shorthand outline for this rather lengthy saying to save the pens of journalists who have to write it down repeatedly at launch events over the next 12 months) in 2014. So we should have expected this relentless focus to see Miliband's shadow ministers pointing angrily at every expensive thing that they can find, regardless of whether it's particularly heart-rending. Today we heard Luciana Berger thundering that David Cameron is so evil that he's putting people off their new year's resolutions.

David Cameron's New Year message (and his accompanying Times op-ed) is an upbeat call to stick with the Tories to get the job done. He writes of his desire to 'turn Britain into the flagship post-Great Recession success story. A country that is on the rise'. And in his video message he focuses on the signs that the country is already rising. Downing Street is keen to stress that this message is no Blair/Brown-style relaunch of the government with a shiny new logo and a plan. It is the Prime Minister trying to encourage optimism about Britain's best days lying ahead of it, but that 'recovery is real, but it’s also fragile'.

In the autumn Nick Clegg annoyed some in the Labour party by telling his conference that 'Labour would wreck the recovery' and that 'the Conservatives would give us the wrong kind of recovery'. Some senior figures such as Lord Adonis said it suggested Clegg was predisposed to partnership with the Tories as wrecking is so much worse than a tendency to veer off in the wrong direction. But in his New Year message Clegg turns on all the parties, warning voters that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats in the European elections would wreck the recovery too. He says: 'In May you are going to choose who represents you in the European Union. Two of the parties on offer could help lead Britain out of Europe, the surest way to throw our recovery away.

The Sun on Sunday's story this morning that senior Tories have opened talks with Boris Johnson about a campaigning role for the Mayor follows some advice offered by James Forsyth in the pages of this magazine back in May. In his politics column, James argued that Boris needed a role in the 2015 campaign to reach voters who might otherwise be turned off by the Tories: 'Persuading the public that Labour can’t be trusted with office again is necessary but not sufficient. To achieve victory, the Tories must connect with the electorate in a way that they are currently not. That means Cameron finding a role for Boris; he’d be well suited to being the chief Cameron surrogate. 'Those around Cameron fret about whether Boris can be trusted or not.

It turns out that Alex Salmond needn't worry too much about the re-emergence of that pesky row about advice on an independent Scotland's membership of the European Union. He's got arguments that are far more powerful than all that to convince Scots of the value of independence. In the latest issue of Idea, a magazine produced by the Evangelical Alliance, two Christian MSPs set out their arguments in favour of and against independence. Both accept that there isn't one Christian position on the subject, but the SNP MSP for Glasgow Shettleston John Mason does suggest that the Bible might have some wisdom on the matter - and it's from as far back as the book of Genesis. He writes: 'But does the Bible have nothing to say on all this?

While Anna Soubry's short joke about Nigel Farage on Marr has been causing the biggest row, it was actually Vince Cable's interview earlier in the programme that was clearly intended to annoy. The Business Secretary has been quite quiet of late, particularly after a rather humiliating conference season. But today he went much, much further than his boss Nick Clegg in differentiating the Lib Dems from the Tories. While he repeatedly referred to his leader's work in blocking the 75,000 proposed by Theresa May in a leaked Home Office document, Cable repeated his fears about the Help to Buy scheme and, significantly, warned that cuts to public services were endangering 'the social fabric'.

In the latest episode of Tea at 22, I interviewed Conservative business and energy minister Michael Fallon on his work in two Whitehall departments, Tory EU policy, and the party's approach to Ukip. Fallon was the Spectator's Minister of the Year for 2013. He had some very interesting points about how the Business department in particular might look different under a Tory majority government, suggesting that the Lib Dems had held the Tories back in getting more young people into work.

David Cameron received a rapturous banging of desks at the final meeting of the year for the 1922 Committee this evening. My sources have given me a run-down of what was said. Backbenchers were, I hear, very cheered by some of his words, particularly on his 2015 strategy. The Prime Minister told his MPs that the important thing to avoid is fighting Labour on their own territory. That means resisting being dragged into ding-dongs about payday loans and other pet issues that Labour likes to raise (the problem with this is that it creates a vacuum for Labour to invent its own description of what the nasty Tories think when the reality is different, but at least this is a plan rather than a lack of awareness of the issues).

One thing that has been abundantly clear about the Tory plan for Ukip is that it will involve a long, slow 'squeeze message' (more on that here) that has already been deployed: the vote Ukip, get Miliband line. Naturally, Ukip is keen to counter that and argue that in fact this early squeeze message to encourage voters to think strategically is just wrong. To that end, party donor Alan Bown has taken out a full-page advertisement in the Telegraph today that argues 'UKIP stand poised for a major breakthrough in 2015, within reach of victory in many seats across the country'. He outlines the results of four polls: in the marginal seats of Crewe & Nantwich and Great Yarmouth, and the safe seats of Folkestone & Hythe and Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.