Isabel Hardman

Presuming that George Osborne isn't sitting in the Treasury, perspiring slightly as he tries to work out what on earth he could offer as a big surprise in the Budget, here are some suggestions on what that surprise rabbit from the hat could be*. A lower AME welfare cap funds a higher personal allowanceThe Chancellor is due to set the level of the spending cap for welfare in today's Budget. Could he set it much lower than expected, and use the extra money saved to raise the personal allowance much higher than expected? This would mean he can tie welfare spending to taxpayers' money in an even more explicit way than he has done previously, and challenge Labour to vote against the cap by saying that they'd be denying taxpayers more of their hard-earned cash during a cost-of-living crisis.

Lynton Crosby addressed the Conservative parliamentary party last night about the party's messaging for the European elections. Amusingly, I hear he told those gathered to watch one of his powerpoint presentations that while Jesus only had 12 disciples, David Cameron has 305 to spread his message. Perhaps the next Downing Street wooing event will see the Prime Minister handing out loaves and fishes to his backbenchers. After a rather off-message week, the Conservatives need their MPs to get into line and start talking about that long-term economic plan today as George Osborne unveils his Budget. One of the key words to look out for is 'resilience', which the Chancellor has already dropped into his tweets about the exciting new pound coin.

One of the more remarkable exchanges of today's PMQs was the intervention by John Woodcock towards the end of the session. He surprised colleagues by calling the failure to intervene in Syria 'shameful': 'This week marks three years since the bloodshed began in Syria. More than two and a half million people have fled the country and the dead can no longer even be counted. We must all bear responsibility for our shameful failure to intervene. But they are supposed to be the ones - they are supposed to be the ones running the country. So what renewed effort will his government make to end the slaughter before all hope fails?' It's worth noting that Woodcock supported Labour's amendment but did not vote on the government motion on Syria.

Unsurprisingly, Douglas Alexander's Today interview about Ed Miliband's pledge to not give the British people a referendum without saying he's not giving you a referendum wasn't the most edifying performance. Alexander admitted that what Miliband is promising is an 'unlikely' referendum, saying: 'He will say that our priority in government would be tackling the cost-of-living crisis and getting the economy back on track, not getting Britain out of Europe. He’ll set out some very practical and I think needed changes to make Europe work better for the United Kingdom. And he’ll also be open that we are not, as a prospective Labour government, proposing a further transfer of powers to Brussels.

Awkward rows about who employs 'cheap foreign labour' aside, the immigration issue is going to blow up again in the next couple of weeks when the Immigration Bill reaches report stage in the House of Lords. There are two main problems with the legislation which could lead to some very awkward votes at this stage - and both are being highlighted in the current committee stage. The first relates to fines for private landlords who do not make adequate checks on tenants who then turn out to be illegal immigrants.

Danny Alexander managed to please Ed Balls at Treasury Questions today by revealing that he wasn't opposed to the Shadow Chancellor's call for the Office for Budget Responsibility to audit the spending pledges made in an opposition party's manifesto. He told the Commons: 'I think this is an idea well worth further consideration, Mr Speaker. What I'd be worried about in taking it forward is the pressure it would place on the Office for Budget Responsibility, which is a new organisation that's only recently taken on responsibility for forecasting the public finances.