Isabel Hardman

So Nigel, where's your flood? You know, the one involving Bulgarians and Romanians that you predicted last year. That deluge? You got it wrong, didn't you? Ner-ner-di-ner-ner. It must be very tempting for people who don't like Nigel Farage to spend today chuckling, scrolling through the ONS website and waving their mouse with a satisfied flourish at the finding that the number of people from these countries who are employed in the UK has risen by 13,000 from the same period last year, when transitional controls were still in place. The Ukip leader had predicted 5,000 a week, but his forecasts look as good as David Silvester's attempts at dabbling in meteorology. It has given Farage's critics another opportunity to accuse him of 'scaremongering'.

Downing Street remains resolute that there will not be a recall of Parliament over the situation in Iraq. But Conor Burns, a Tory backbencher who resigned as a ministerial aide over Lords reform, has just joined calls for a recall by writing to David Cameron warning that helping to evacuate the religious minorities at risk is not enough. His letter, seen first by Coffee House, is pretty strong stuff. Burns tells Cameron that 'these people want a holocaust of everyone who does not share their brutal ideology. It simply cannot be enough to try and evacuate those [ISIS] want to kill and then leave them, as the Pentagon admitted last night, undiminished to continue their terror' and that 'there is more that we could be exploring to deal with the problem's source'.

What is the extent of British involvement in Iraq? Philip Hammond today said it was simply to provide humanitarian assistance, but the suggestion that ministers could send Tornado jets to help with the relief operation has confused some. Even though sources have told the BBC that the jets will not be involved in air strikes, Jack Straw has immediately read the report as a sign that the UK could be heading towards 'more active intervention'. He told ITV: 'That's a start. If you're going to have more active intervention with aeroplanes striking at ISIS columns or drones, you need a lot of intelligence and the next stage is to send Tornados. I'm actually pleased to hear that because Tornados are not machines that can deliver humanitarian assistance.

Baroness Warsi's interview with the Sunday Times and Independent on Sunday is, unsurprisingly, not just about her discomfort with the government's policy in the Middle East. The Independent on Sunday uses her jibe at public school Tories as its top line, while the Sunday Times splashes on the peer's warning that the Tories have left it a 'little too late' to attract more votes from ethnic minorities. Her criticisms, aimed as a parting shot at her colleagues, may be discounted for being just that: nothing more than a sour parting shot from someone who found that a number of people who worked with her were only too pleased to see her out when she resigned last week. But just because they come from Warsi, hardly flavour of the month, doesn't mean they're not true.

That Nigel Farage was planning to stand in South Thanet was one of the worst kept secrets in politics. But Ukip turns out to be the worst secret keeper in politics, too, with confirmation of the party leader's intentions dribbling out on a Friday afternoon at the end of a rather newsy week. The meticulously well-sourced Jim Pickard at the FT reports local Ukip activists confirming that Farage is on their shortlist of candidates to run under the party's banner. But the party's spokeswoman has been stonewalling him, presumably because the Friday afternoon of an unusually newsy August week isn't quite the right time for exciting Ukip constituency fireworks.

FOB, FOG or FOT? Which one are you? In this week's Spectator, Harry Mount examines the machinations of the Friends of Boris as they set their star man up for a return to Parliament and a future Tory leadership bid against the Friends of George and the Friends of Theresa. It's worth reminding all three contenders, though, that these long-drawn out contests between party big beasts rarely lead to those big beasts actually taking the leadership. David Davis, Michael Portillo, Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine could all tell a few tales on that front.

So what now for Boris? He's got to go through the selection process for a constituency, which he hasn't yet settled upon, although I've outlined some of the options that might work for this week's magazine. The favourite is Uxbridge; but his camp today are adamant that other seats are in play. One source tells me: 'He is not expecting to get any special treatment at all, and he is prepared to go through the selection process like any other candidate.' But the important thing for Boris is that he's answered the big question before the Scottish independence referendum and party conference season, which were the two deadlines his secret campaign team had set for him. Move too close to 18 September and he'd look self-obsessed.