Isabel Hardman

Who will be relieved and reassured when they read this weekend's polls on how Thursday's independence referendum will go? Well, it looks like neither camp has much to celebrate as the polls are all over the place - which means that anything could happen in just a few days' time. So here's what we know so far. Opinium has 'No' with a six point lead at 53 per cent, with 'Yes' on 47 per cent. Meanwhile an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph puts 'Yes' eight points ahead. A Panelbase poll comes out later tonight. It's also worth noting this post from John Curtice, which says the ICM finding 'while not wholly disregarded, should clearly be viewed with caution' because of a smaller sample size.

Anyone who thinks that the latest YouGov poll on Scottish independence, which shows the 'No' camp with a six-point lead over 'Yes' at 52 per cent to 48 per cent (once don't-knows are excluded) is getting a little ahead of themselves. It is significant that this is the same pollster who sent Westminster into panic on Sunday with its poll putting 'Yes' in the lead. But the only effect this poll should have on the 'No' campaign in the final days is to stop a blind, useless sort of panic where bad decisions are made and colleagues brief against one another before the final result.

Even when it is at peace, the Conservative party deals in hypotheticals all of which involve David Cameron being ousted in one way or another. That's why backbenchers have been wargaming what will happen to David Cameron if Scotland votes 'Yes' next week. It's why 1922 Committee executive members have been calling fellow MPs, or pouncing on them in the corridors (one spent a good long time lurking in one particular corridor in Parliament yesterday, snaring backbenchers) to find out what they would do if the worst happens in the referendum. Everyone agrees that a 'Yes' vote would be seriously damaging to the Prime Minister and that it would lead to a vote of no confidence. Serial troublemakers are making detailed plans for this to happen.

It is very difficult to see how David Cameron would survive a 'Yes' vote in the Scottish referendum. There are certainly Conservatives who are making detailed plans to oust the Prime Minister if Scotland does vote to leave. But it is also worth noting that a 'No' vote would not ensure an easy ride for the Conservative leader with his party. A number of Tory backbenchers are unsettled by the speed at which the parties have moved to promise devo-more. They say they can't see the point at which the government moved from resisting devo-max to all three Westminster parties promising a significant transfer of powers. And they will cause trouble on the English question.

Here are a number of things that the Westminster parties' response to the narrowing Scottish independence polls have definitely not been. Absolutely definitely not. 1. A cobbled-together response The three parties deciding to announce the new powers for Scotland and timetable for the handover of those powers in the event of a 'No' vote may, to the untrained eye, have looked like a last-minute, last-ditch attempt to reverse the fortunes of the Better Together campaign. But no, argued Nick Clegg today when he sat before the the Political and Constitutional Reform Committee. 'I don't accept the characterisation this has all been sort of cobbled together at the last minute.

Is Gordon Brown going on a freelancing operation with his timetable for new powers for a Scotland that votes 'No'? The former Prime Minister has this afternoon released the timetable for further devolution, with the formal process beginning the day after the result, leading to a draft Scotland Bill being published by Burns Night in January 2015.

Tomorrow's Sunday Times poll by YouGov puts the Yes campaign ahead at 51 per cent, with No on 49 per cent when undecided voters are excluded (even when they're included, 'yes' are still ahead by two points: 47-45). In the space of four weeks, 'No' has blown a 22-point lead. It was only recently that the No campaign started to wonder whether this could happen: previously there was an acceptance that the polls could narrow in the last few weeks, but the narrative was that the SNP were behind and were simply trying to engineer a close enough defeat for them to argue for a significant new settlement for Scotland. Now the Yes campaign has every opportunity to gain sufficient momentum not just to get a narrow defeat, but a victory.

The government has just lost a vote in the House of Commons on the 'bedroom tax'/removal of the spare-room subsidy/underoccupancy penalty/Size Criteria for People Renting in the Social Rented Sector (the correct, if rather clunky, name). There was a three-line whip from the Tories on the vote, but the Lib Dems had decided they would support their colleague Andrew George's bill to exempt those who cannot move to a smaller home, or who are disabled and live in an adapted property. The Bill had its second reading in the House of Commons today, and passed 306 votes to 231. Jacob Rees-Mogg moved an amendment that the Bill should be considered by a select committee, in an attempt to slow it up, but it was also defeated.

Ukip have been approaching potential defectors and offering to pay for a poll in their constituency that shows how well they'd do as a Ukip candidate, Coffee House has learned. Since boasting last week that they had a few more MPs who might defect to the party, Ukip have been trying again with some Conservatives they believe to be vulnerable. They approached one with what the MP describes as a 'carrot-and-stick' approach. 'The pitch was you're a great guy and we'll pay for a poll with you as hypothetical Ukip candidate if you defect,' said the MP, who didn't want to be named. 'The stick was we'll soon select a good Ukip candidate who might cost you the seat.