Isabel Hardman

Will David Cameron really consider staying on as Prime Minister for the 2020 election as well? Ever since the Sun on Sunday reported that some of the Tory leader’s colleagues were agitating for him to continue, there has been feverish speculation about whether he will. Those MPs in favour of a longer reign from Cameron claim that he made his commitment to go before the next election while chopping vegetables in his kitchen and that he wasn’t really thinking. But he has reiterated that commitment since the election, and so clearly doesn’t think it was a mistake worth correcting. But the chatter about the PM going ‘on and on’, as he puts it, does raise a question that Cameron will have to answer at some point, which is his departure date.

Jeremy Corbyn is ahead in the Labour leadership race to the extent that it will now be something of a surprise if he doesn’t win. YouGov has published a poll putting Corbyn 32 points ahead of Andy Burnham on first preferences on 53 per cent and 21 per cent respectively, and 24 points ahead of Yvette Cooper in the final round voting on 62 per cent to 38 per cent. Corbyn is now the 1/2 favourite to win the contest according to Ladbrokes. He has had the Big Mo for weeks, and as ballots go out this week, he is sustaining that momentum at just the right time.

If you’re at all ambitious in Westminster these days, the most important thing is to show that you’re not a professional politician. Generally, the accepted definition of ‘professional politician’ is someone who has done something normal as far away from Westminster as possible before entering Parliament. But some alter the standard definition at their convenience to also mean ‘has a northern accent’ or ‘isn’t from a posh family or school’. That second may make someone stand out in Parliament: given how expensive it is to stand in an election, it helps if you’ve got wealth of some kind, and private schools are disproportionately represented in Parliament.

Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters and spokespeople are fiercely debating whether or not he told the Independent on Sunday’s Jane Merrick that he wants to bring back clause IV. His quote to the journalist seems pretty clear: ‘I think we should talk about what the objectives of the party are, whether that’s restoring Clause Four as it was originally written or it’s a different one. But we shouldn’t shy away from public participation, public investment in industry and public control of the railways. ‘I’m interested in the idea that we have a more inclusive, clearer set of objectives. I would want us to have a set of objectives which does include public ownership of some necessary things such as rail.

How do the Tories win over low-income workers for good? That’s the question occupying the mind of anyone seriously thinking about the 2020 election, rather than assuming that Jeremy Corbyn will win it for them. Today Boris Johnson turned his hand to answering that question in an eloquent and detailed speech which set out his stall on social mobility. Of course, every speech at the moment is viewed as part of the leadership contest, and given Boris hasn’t had a particularly stellar first term in the Commons, this speech did appear to be partly a reminder that he hasn’t gone away at all. In fact, it was a fine speech which reminded us that Boris is far more than just a funny man.

Without wanting to dispel the utter euphoria that Tories are feeling at the current state of the Labour party, they do have a tricky autumn to get through which they don’t seem to be thinking much about. In today’s Times I set out some of the looming Tory rebellions on a range of different policies due for Commons scrutiny this autumn. There is, of course, the possibility that the whips pull many of these votes, which means that there will be problems in Parliament, but not actual rebellions in the Commons. The Tories may be trying to pass various policies that aren’t particularly popular, but they’re being nimble about it, dropping votes as soon as it becomes clear they are either going to be lost or too close to call.

George Osborne is having a good summer. He got in first with wooing the new intake of Tory MPs, to the extent that many of them seem slightly besotted with the warm and friendly Chancellor who welcomes them cheerily to drinks events. He humiliated Boris Johnson with jokes about his ‘dilapidated’ campaign bunker - and was at the very least rather pleased that Theresa May ended up humiliating the Mayor by refusing to approve the use of water cannon in London. Now he’s top of the ConHome Tory leader survey for the first time. The Chancellor has risen nine points and got the support of 30.9 per cent of the 700 Tory members surveyed, ahead of Sajid Javid on 18.7 per cent and Johnson on 16.6 per cent.