Henry Newman

Tony Abbott claims in The Spectator this week that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the “difficulties would quickly pass”. Perhaps. I should start by saying that I am relatively sanguine about the medium-term economic effects of leaving without an agreement. But I think it is pretty absurd to suggest that “no deal would be no problem”.  The most immediate political issue would be a certain collapse of the current Government. I know that these days they are no strangers to political chaos down under and Aussie prime ministers come and go with frightening speed, but how could you make a success of Brexit with no majority for the governing party at all?

One of the more interesting developments over the last year is the attempted transformation of John McDonnell from a hard-left activist who joked about “lynching” a female Conservative MP, towards a softer, more jovial, chancellor-in-waiting. It seemed to be going quite well. I appeared with McDonnell on Politics Live last year and he laughed heartily as I teased him about coveting the Labour leadership. SW1’s water-cooler chat is that McDonnell is a far more effective advocate of a Corbynite Labour position than Jeremy Corbyn himself, particularly because the Labour leader often looks so irritated at being asked relatively normal questions on television. But could that be about to change?

Earlier this morning, I pitched up at Good Morning Britain’s studios for what was billed as a Brexit debate with Dr Victoria Bateman A.K.A. the naked academic. I’d been warned in advance that she would be naked. And when I was shown into the studio, she was – totally. We hadn’t met backstage in the green room, as Dr Bateman was in her own dressing room. Presumably she was busy writing her slogan across her torso (she kindly offered later to allow ITV to film this process). So, we were only introduced under the studio lights. We had a brief chat during the commercial break, as Dr Bateman handed her shoes to one of the crew. She seemed a perfectly nice person – just naked. https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1095273776537878528?

I’ve got sympathy with those tempted to tell the Brussels elite to stuff their Brexit deal. Quite a few of my relatives and friends feel a two-fingered salute is the appropriate response to demands for £39 billion and what they see as the naked instrumentalisation of the Irish border. They listen to Emmanuel Macron and European leaders drip disdain on the British electorate for exercising a right to leave the Union afforded to all member states in EU law, watch Jean-Claude Juncker’s weird hair-fluffing antics, and read about top German MEP Elmar Brok’s dodgy scheme to profit from European Parliament tours. They think Theresa May has made a pig’s ear of the negotiations, and watch her struggle to explain her own flagship policy.

Several cabinet ministers have publicly backed a series of indicative votes in the Commons on the various Brexit options. I understand why, but they're wrong: this approach is both messy and misguided. The best thing for MPs is to spend their Christmas break thinking carefully. Those who have criticised Theresa May's Brexit deal should carefully think through their opposition. It's my view that reports of the death of May's deal are greatly exaggerated. It's obvious there are only now three real options when it comes to Brexit: Leave with no deal; Leave with May's deal; or, don't Leave. Every possible path falls into one of these three boxes. Managed no deal (whatever that is or isn't) is a way of dressing up no deal with a nice bow.

What has just happened with Gibraltar? The Prime Minister of Spain had threatened to “veto” Brexit but now says he has received assurances - suggesting that something happened this weekend. It did, but it was more about politics than substance. Spain’s PM, Pedro Sanchez, leads a minority government facing important elections next month. His position is weaker than Theresa May’s and his confidence and supply relationships much more complex. Sanchez's government has been under pressure to call a General Election even since they took over around half a year ago. Which makes a political row over Spain’s national obsession – the status of Gibraltar – the perfect distraction.

Is Italy descending into political chaos? Some may shrug their shoulders and say well, it is Italy. Yes, Italy has had messy politics before. But that doesn’t make the current row any less high stakes. We don’t yet know if the League backs the demands of the Five Star - and the small Brothers of Italy party - to impeach the President. If they do then there will be a majority in both houses. The Five Star and the League are also calling for fresh elections – but could a president dissolve parliament while facing impeachment demands? Meanwhile the President has put forward a new figure as Prime Minister, who seems almost designed to offend the parties who actually won the recent elections. How did we get here? The recent elections produced a shock result.

This never-ending circular discussion on customs unions is painful, particularly because the question should have been settled during the referendum. It’s now nearly two years since the vote to Leave the EU in June 2016. But we’ve spent months and months rehashing endlessly the exact same points. That’s profoundly damaging. Rewind back to this time two years ago. The leaders of the Leave campaign were talking about the possibility of the UK signing new trade deals after Brexit with the US, Japan, China, Australia and New Zealand – they were talking of life outside a Customs Union. The other side said we would have more negotiating weight as a big bloc of countries.

So we have the first sight of the European Council’s draft negotiating guidelines. They’re much more constructive that we would have been lead to believe. And there are no big surprises. The first headline point is that there is no mention of the €60 billion figure which Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Commission have loved to go on about. In fact no figure is mentioned at all. The section on money is restricted to saying that debts will need to be settled – something Theresa May has already acknowledged. It does not say when the cheque needs to be signed: A single financial settlement should ensure that the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations undertaken before the date of withdrawal.

A potentially significant moment in the travails of the EU was lost in the drama of John Major’s (re-)intervention into the Brexit debate on Monday. Over in Italy, another former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, also made an intervention. He called for Italy to introduce a separate currency alongside the euro which would allow it to 'recover monetary sovereignty'. Berlusconi half floated a suggestion along these lines back in 2014. But now he says he is 'completely convinced' by it. He suggests that Italy should keep the euro for imports and exports, while using a different currency – a new domestic money supply – for state payments to 'help the left behind'.