Greg Rosen

As the UK approaches the end of the Brexit transition period, ministers have made it clear that businesses and Britain must ready themselves for ‘no deal’. But will Britain be ready? Almost every day, there are new concerns from the road haulage industry, not just about Kent and access permits for lorry drivers, but about the system’s operability and the viability of any back-up plans. The government does have an ‘oven ready’ response to the no deal naysayers – which Michael Gove used with evident relish against Theresa May in October – and can say that: ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’. Ultimately, however, the judgement about no deal will be made, as in the referendum itself, by the electorate.

Keir Starmer’s achievement is remarkable: ten months after Boris Johnson's resounding victory, he has transformed Labour from no-hopers into a force that is terrifying the Tories. As the Conservative tribe prepares to gather for its virtual party conference, the obvious question is whether defeat at the next election is a realistic prospect. The answer, unlike in January 2020 must be: yes. Its likelihood, however, is a different matter.  A wise Tory strategist would be looking at the contrasting elections of 1992 and 1997 and taking note.