Gray Sergeant

Since Trump's inauguration in January, not a day has gone by when supporters of a liberal international order have not sunk their heads deep into their hands. The global trade war that has erupted between the US and the rest of the world is just the latest episode in the American President's mission to overturn the old order (despite the unexpected 90-day pause announced on Wednesday for everyone but China). If this was not disturbing enough, liberal internationalists also need to contend with what will replace it. What rules and norms will prevail, or rather whose? Disconcertingly, some Europeans appear to be buying the charm offensive The People’s Republic of China is a prime contender.

Since Keir Starmer took office, Britain's approach to Taiwan seems to have changed little from that of the previous Tory government – but is that really the case? Beneath the surface, there are worrying signs that Starmer's government wants to dodge discussing the potential flashpoint of Taiwan's sovereignty, lest it disrupt their attempt to reset relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) The previous government, in the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh, committed the United Kingdom to supporting stability across the strait. Rishi Sunak, when asked about arms sales to the island, was unequivocal: ‘We stand ready to support Taiwan’.

Zhang Biao, Beijing’s man in Scotland, warned earlier this month that a proposed friendship agreement between Edinburgh City Council and Taiwan’s southern city of Kaohsiung would ‘hurt the feeling[s] of the Chinese people’. The people of China, from Shenzhen to Harbin – all 1.4 billion of them – can sleep easy tonight: the proposal has been pulled from the council's agenda. Whether it will reappear is unclear. The city’s leader, Cammy Day, has announced that ‘more discussion is required before taking this agreement forward’. Discussions which could presumably, if necessary, go on indefinitely.

When two Chinese fisherman died last month trying to flee Taiwan’s coastguard, Beijing laid the blame at Taipei’s feet and demanded an apology. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) also spied an opportunity to advance its territorial claims. China has been targeting Kinmen, an island controlled by Taiwan, more aggressively over the past few weeks. The CCP stated that ‘there is no such thing as “prohibited or restricted waters”’ – saying that the waters around the island had been used as traditional fishing grounds by both sides. On the morning of 19 February, four Chinese coast guard vessels patrolled around Kinmen’s restricted waters.

Why should we care that Beijing has suspended tariff relief for 12 Taiwanese petrochemical products? The move certainly lacks the fear factor which Chinese military manoeuvres around Taiwan generate – exercises which have become more routine and grander in scale during 2023. Yet China’s economic warfare against Taiwan is just as pernicious. It is also premeditated, with moves on this front aligning with key moments in Taiwan’s political calendar and developments in the country’s relationship with the United States. By targeting specific products with restrictions and sanctions, Beijing seeks to punish both the Taiwanese people and their government.

For more than 20 years the West ignored China’s militarisation of the South China Sea. Until, that is, it was too late. Now, after being artificially expanded and built out with sand, the islands of this crucial maritime space are dotted with Chinese missile systems and runways. The region's smaller nations, who also lay claim to sections of this sea, can only protest in vain.  Will the Free World learn from the mistakes of history? Beijing is now trying to redraw the map across the Himalayas, most recently in Arunachal Pradesh, a territory in North-eastern India that China claims as ‘South Tibet’.  Last week, Chinese and Indian troops clashed in the Tawang area of the region.