Freddy Gray

‘I don’t think anyone knows,’ someone close to Donald Trump told me at the end of last week. ‘My guess is he does but that’s just a guess.’ My question, of course, was ‘Is Donald Trump still going to announce?’ — despite the mid-term disappointments for his movement and the increasing certainty among Republican analysts that the party cannot win with him as its public face? He's expected to announce at 9 pm Eastern Standard Time – 2 am tomorrow, BST – after he declared yesterday on his Truth Social media platform that ‘Hopefully, tomorrow will turn out to be one of the most important days in the history of our country!

Has the reputation of any American statesman been more effectively trashed than that of Richard Milhous Nixon? Donald Trump’s, perhaps – certainly the forty-fifth president inspires loathing on a scale matched only by the thirty-seventh. Nixon and Trump have a few other points in common. Both men built coalitions through appeals to forgotten voters. They spoke to Americans who were frightened by rapid and destructive social and economic change. Both were denounced as fascists and standard bearers of the most reactionary forces in American life, yet in fact both governed with substantial moderation. Nixon and Trump prove the truth of Marx’s quip that history repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce. Nixon is the tragedy; Trump the farce.

‘There are two things that are important in politics,’ said the 19th century senator Mark Hanna. ‘The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.’ The maxim remains true in 2022. Public polling is all well and good, and useful in its way. Yet in a country as sprawling and complex and bitterly divided as the United States of America, and with so much information available online at everyone’s fingertips, polls can easily be used to suggest whatever you want.  Political parties inevitably lie about their electoral prospects and hide their rather more sophisticated (and less biased) internal polling. But campaigns can’t altogether conceal their spending patterns.

Well, that round of party unity was fun, wasn’t it? Rishi Sunak, the pragmatist, ushered in an unfamiliar sense of calmness and competence as he entered Downing Street. It has lasted less than a week. Yet again the newspapers are chock full of ‘senior Conservatives’ gunning for each other: the target this time is Suella Braverman. The Tory cycle of violence continues. The question is: are the Tories just ‘ungovernable’ — as many said during Liz Truss’s collapse — or now fully addicted to self-destruction?  Braverman says there is a ‘witch-hunt’ against her: you just need to pick up a newspaper today to see what she’s getting at. So far this year 40,000 have entered Britain illegally: Braverman has said this amounts to ‘an invasion’.