Ed Shackle

Mere months ago, the suggestion that Nigel Farage could step down as the leader of Reform would have felt absurd. The party was leading in the polls, had won the local elections, and Farage had an iron grip on the leadership. But now media scrutiny is growing and rumours are awash that he has at least considered throwing in the towel. The Clacton by-election circus has not gone down well. The idea of a post-Farage Reform might not be so far-fetched. But who would replace him? And what would his departure from frontline politics mean for the party? Speaking to these voters in northern working-class towns, ‘Rupert’ is raised in a way that is only similar to Nigel (Farage) or Boris (Johnson) New Public First polling suggests they would be far from enamoured by the options.

Kemi Badenoch has pledged to repeal the Climate Change Act 2008 – and made a lot of noise in the process. This marks the Tory party’s biggest step yet away from the establishment consensus on Net Zero. It also represents another significant step away from voters. Voters don’t choose Reform because of their policy position on net zero The leader of the opposition is in an unenviable position. Her dire poll ratings, in contrast to Nigel Farage in the ascendant, make the prospect of a Reform-lite policy platform alluring. The problem with this strategy though is that Badenoch and her advisers have fundamentally misread what voters care about and why they are attracted to Reform. Voters don’t choose Reform because of their policy position on net zero.

‘The policymakers that live in London and stuff, they don’t really care about a small town like Rochdale. I just feel as though, for many years it’s been one of those forgotten things, we live under the shadow of Manchester.’  This quote, from a teaching assistant in his 30s with young children, is from a recent focus group we ran in Rochdale. But in truth it could easily be from any focus group in any town across provincial Britain over the past ten years, such is the national feeling of malaise. The government is right to revive levelling up. Why it ever went away is baffling People in these communities have long felt that their towns, high streets and public spaces are in decline. They have aired their frustrations loudly in that time.

‘Reform are going to freshen things up’. Howard looks up from the candy crush-style game he is playing on his mobile. He, despite being a lifelong Tory, will be voting for Nigel Farage’s party today in the Greater Lincolnshire Mayoral election. We’re visiting areas of the mayoralty with the most Tory and Labour voters, places where people steadfastly voted Conservative while the party was being decimated in other parts of the country last summer. These are the voters that Reform are now focusing on. None of our conversations are pre-arranged, as we want to get as close to people in their natural environments as possible. A team goes door to door in the most Tory streets in Grantham while another interviews people in cafes and pubs across the more Labour leaning Lincoln.

'Can I just say, he’s a t***.' The taxi driver leans backwards and interjects into our conversation about one of Elon Musk’s latest forays into UK politics. Musk, he makes short shrift of explaining, should keep his beak out.  We’ve just arrived in a North-East coastal town, where we will be spending the next few days conducting dozens of in-depth interviews with locals to find out what they think about a range of topics. None of these are pre-arranged as we find it useful to speak to people in their natural environments: the pub, local coffee shop or workplace etc. What we found on this trip is an unexpected opportunity for Keir Starmer.