Daniel Thorpe

President Erdogan’s political star rose when he won the local elections in Istanbul exactly 30 years ago. ‘The one who wins Istanbul wins the whole of Turkey,’ he once said. His famous sentence is now back to haunt him. People already talk about ‘the beginning of the end’ for Erdogan In Istanbul yesterday, tens of thousands of people gathered to celebrate not Erdogan but Ekrem Imamoglu, the opposition’s incumbent mayor, in municipal elections. Despite the fatigue from last year’s general elections, over 78 per cent of Turkey’s 61 million-strong electorate turned up to cast their votes yesterday. Their backing for Imamoglu was resounding: his Republican People’s Party (CHP) performed spectacularly, securing 37.

Hungary’s governing Fidesz party is in crisis over an issue it has staked its credibility on: the defence of the traditional family. One of the ministers who pioneered Viktor Orban’s family policy and served as president of Hungary, Katalin Novak, has been forced to resign over a paedophile scandal. Novak resigned on 10 February after a story revealed she had pardoned a man convicted of covering up sexual abuse cases of children at a state orphanage. Judit Varga, the former minister of justice, who signed off the pardon last April, was also forced out. Varga had been due to lead Fidesz's list in the upcoming European parliament election.

The results of yesterday’s election have come as a sobering shock for many in Turkey. Although president Erdogan fell just short in the first round of the 50 per cent he needed to automatically secure another term, a parliamentary majority remains within his grasp. Erdogan is now expected to comfortably win the run-off. Even before the counting was finished, he delivered a victory speech in Ankara on Sunday night. If Erdogan surpassed expectations, the opposition significantly underperformed. In the lead-up to the election, numerous polls suggested that the joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, held a lead of up to five points over his rival, giving him a good chance of winning in the first round.

The Turkish election is just hours away, and an opposition victory seems more likely than ever under president Erdogan's rule. Everywhere from cafés to the civil service, from social media to newspapers, the big question on everyone's lips is whether Erdogan will concede after 21 years in power. Fears of escalation and violence on the streets are high. As Turkey's electoral system is old-fashioned and analogue, irregularities and small-scale fraud are common, especially in rural areas. However, the system leaves little to no room for mass election fraud. Losing an election does not necessarily mean the end of a strongman In the 2019 local elections, the opposition Republican People's party (CHP) won in Istanbul by a small margin of a few thousand votes.

With only a few days to go until Turkey's election, the opposition continues to lead in most polls. But there is a growing feeling in Turkey that president Erdogan might defy the odds and win again. A striking image of a rally in Istanbul – Erdogan's biggest so far – shows Turkey's leader continues to enjoy popular support. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) claimed that 1.7 million people showed up at the decommissioned Atatürk airport for the event on Sunday; supporters were bused into the rally from across the country. While independent fact-checkers pointed out that the real number is likely less than half the number claimed, this rally showed that victory for the opposition is far from certain.

After months of negotiations and a week of drama, the Turkish opposition bloc has announced Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), as their joint presidential candidate. The general election in May looks set to be the biggest challenge president Erdoğan has faced since coming to power in 2002. An unusual scene unfolded in Ankara on Monday night. A huge portrait of Atatürk, the radically secular founding father of modern Turkey, fluttered in the breeze over the headquarters of an Islamist party. Outside, thousands gathered, chanting the name Kılıçdaroğlu, a politician from a religious minority, the Alevis, who have faced persecution for most of the Turkish Republic’s 100 year history.