Alistair Haimes

Alistair Haimes is an independent data analyst.

Lockdown sceptics should support this lockdown

From our UK edition

Scepticism is supposed to be the bedrock of science. But where scepticism shades into cynicism it can be as blind to changing events as the unexamined credence it claims to displace. Scientific belief should be based on informed supposition which is then rigorously tested against the evidence — that is the basis of the scientific method. There should be no shame in changing opinions and assumptions when facts change. We start with assumptions, test them against the evidence (which itself changes) and then use that conclusion to repeat the process, ad infinitum. So if conclusions don’t change when facts change, something might have gone awry. As an example: your view on the merits of the current winter lockdown versus the Halloween lockdown.

Lockdown and the R-number: is Neil Ferguson right?

From our UK edition

Earlier today, Prof Neil Ferguson told a parliamentary committee that the UK death toll would have been halved if the UK had locked down a week earlier. A claim certain to generate headlines – but how confident can we be in his figures? I’m a financial strategist, and like many people whose day-job is analysing complicated data I have been watching – open-mouthed – at how estimates have been dressed up as fact during this epidemic. Imperial College's hypothesis is not difficult to explain. Before lockdown, Covid was growing with a reproduction number of about 4. So: every infected person gave it to four others, each of whom gave it to four others etc.