Yougov

Are the polls beginning to swing consistently towards the Conservatives? Two polls out yesterday have the Tories ahead by four points. In its latest poll for The Sun, YouGov has the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 31 per cent, Ukip on 14 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight per cent and the Greens on six per cent. Out of YouGov’s six polls in March so far, Labour has been ahead in one of them. Another last week had the main parties neck and neck while the Tories have been ahead in the others. Lord Ashcroft reported similar results in his latest weekly poll. The Tory peer has the Conservatives on 34 per cent, Labour on 30 per cent, Ukip on 15 per cent, the Greens on eight per cent and the Lib Dems on five per cent.

Are the Conservatives beginning to pull ahead of Labour? Two polls out this week suggest this might be the case. Today's YouGov/The Sun poll puts the Tories on 36 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent — a two point lead for David Cameron's party and its highest poll rating since March 2012. Monday's Ashcroft poll had a similar result, putting the Conservatives on a three point lead ahead of Labour on 34 per cent. Both of these are within the margin of error. While Ukip remain steady on 14 per cent in both polls and the Greens are hovering on high single digits, the most shocking thing to report from the YouGov poll is that the Liberal Democrats are down to just five per cent -- their lowest poll rating in 25 years.

The dramatic rout of Scottish Labour continues. Polls suggest the SNP will take 55 out of 59 seats and of the 14 constituencies surveyed by Lord Ashcroft, only Glasgow North East is set to remain in Labour hands. Such political collapses are rare in UK politics - so what's going on? Prior to 2011, the dividing line of Scottish politics was ‘to be or not to be’ Labour. This was a huge advantage to a party which, faced with split opposition, managed to win 69% of Scottish seats in 2010 with just 42% of the vote.

Today marks 100 days till the election — so how is the race looking? Still very close, according to the most recent opinion polls. In three polls released over the last 24 hours, the Tories are ahead by one point — according to YouGov, Survation and ComRes (notably, the first time they’ve put the Tories ahead since 2011). Only Lord Ashcroft has the Tories level pegging with Labour. As the chart above shows, the two main parties are neck and neck. The Tories will be hoping these small leads will grow over the next few weeks while Labour will be pleased their opponents have yet to gain much traction.

What is going on with the opinion polls? In his first national poll of 2015, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour at 34 per cent — whereas Populus also have a new poll out today putting Labour five points ahead. And yesterday's YouGov poll put both on 32 per cent. As the chart above shows, three of the UK's most prominent pollsters all have completely different predictions on who will win the next election. This poll shows a significant jump in the Conservative position since Ashcroft’s last 2014 poll, which put the party on 40 per cent. So, the question is what’s going on — is this the beginning of the long awaited ‘crossover’ with Labour that Conservative HQ have been hoping for? Or is this an anomaly?

Mark Pritchard, the Conservative MP for The Wrekin, is no longer being investigated by the Met. In a statement, the Met said: ‘A 48-year-old man voluntarily attended a north London police station on Tuesday, 2 December where he was arrested, following an allegation of rape in central London. ‘He returned on bail on 6 January where he was informed he will face no further action as there was insufficient evidence.’ Pritchard gave a brief statement outside of Parliament this morning, where he argued that the law regarding the identity of rape suspects needs to be changed: 'Sadly as an MP sometimes you have a target on your back. Of course, she remains anonymous.

According to a recent YouGov poll, Nick Clegg has an overall rating of minus 54, making him more popular than the hapless Ed Miliband by just one point. While that wouldn't appear to be much to celebrate, the Deputy Prime Minister seems to actually be in denial about his own standing amongst the British public. In the first ever joint interview he has given with his wife Miriam, Clegg is asked whether his wife’s ‘huge fanbase’ ever causes an issue given that his own reputation has ‘taken a kicking over the past four years’. ‘I also have a great fanbase,’ Clegg replies, looking rather hurt.

No unionist should breathe easily after last night’s YouGov poll putting the ‘no’ team on a six-point lead. The race remains too close to call. And the poll also suggests a degree of volatility quite unlike that seen in general elections. Michael Sauders from Citi has dug deeper into the figures (pdf). You need to treat all Scottish polls with caution, due to the sample size and the fact that the turnout may be high enough to include people who polling companies don't know exist. But YouGov found that the under-25s (the ones more likely to vote on the day, rather than by post) have switched form a 20-point lead for ‘yes’ to a 6-point lead for ‘no’ in under a week.

I don't want to appear too immodest but, you know, I told you so. Back in February I wrote an article for this paper warning that Scotland's independence referendum would be a damn close run thing. That was true then and it remains true now. Today's YouGov poll reports that, once undecided voters have been removed from consideration, 47 percent of Scots intend to vote for independence while 53 percent will back the Unionist cause. If the odds remain against Alex Salmond it's also the case that the price on independence is shortening. Paddy Power's over/under calculation of a Yes vote now stands at 46.5 percent. A few weeks ago it was at 42.5 percent. It's a kind of quickening.

Who and what represents Britain today? Our country has changed significantly in the last few decades; but, a batch of YouGov polls published this weekend suggest that traditional notions of what is British remain remarkably unchanged. The public was asked to choose which prominent people they think reflect Britain today. Members of the Royal Family occupy four of the top five positions — the Queen, Prince William, Harry and the Duchess of Cambridge — while fifth spot is represented by the nouveau riche Richard Branson: David Beckham is the only mega celebrity to have made this list.

Do we trust our politicians to deal with Britain’s ties with Europe? The polar opposites on the matter, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage, will be making their case for reconfiguring Britain’s relationship this Wednesday, but it appears we have little faith in either of them. Ahead of the debate, YouGov and LBC have commissioned some polling on how each of the party leaders are trusted on Europe. The results aren’t particularly encouraging for any party leader — 31 per cent trust no-one on this matter, and all of the other party leaders rank below that: [datawrapper chart="http://charts.spectator.co.

Are voters really concerned about how many Old Etonians David Cameron surrounds himself with? Judging by the cutting remarks from Michael Gove and Sayeeda Warsi it matters a lot, but opinion polling tells a slightly different, more troubling tale about how people feel about the ‘political class’. On the Eton question, YouGov recently carried out a poll asking which characteristics they found most unsuitable for a ‘leading politician’.

It’s difficult to figure out exactly what’s going on in Ukraine and what it all means — as Freddy has pointed out there’s a lot of hyperbole at the moment— but where is public opinion on the current situation? There’s some interesting historic polling on where Ukrainians stand on more integration with Europe vs Russia. Ukraine’s ambassador to the European Union Kostyantyn Yeliseyev suggested in 2011 that business tycoons and politicians from the Russian-speaking Eastern regions are just as on board with more EU integration as those from western regions. Yeliseyev noted at the time ‘if any politician today in Ukraine declared himself to be against European integration, he would be politically dead’. The situation is no longer as clear.

The public still doesn’t trust Labour and Ed Miliband on immigration. His speech last year — admitting 'the last Labour government made mistakes’ — was aimed to draw a line under the past and start afresh. How helpful for him to have two key figures of the New Labour era popping up again to remind Britain of where Labour went wrong. First, David Blunkett told the BBC yesterday that an influx of Roma migrants could potentially lead to riots, akin to Oldham and Bradford in 2001: ‘We have got to change the behaviour and the culture of the incoming Roma community – because there’s going to be an explosion otherwise…if everything exploded, if things went wrong, the community would obviously be devastated.

On Sunday an opinion poll was just a poll. Nothing to be too excited by. Unreliable too. The real poll - the one that counts - is still a year away. So put not your faith in numbers. Disappointment that way lies. On Monday the mood in the Scottish nationalist camp changed. Opinion polls now offered a persuasive and necessary reminder that Scotland's on the march. A march that ends in freedom and liberty and whisky next September as an ancient country reasserts her prerogatives  and takes here rightful place in the family of nations once again. Polls are pure dead brilliant, don't you know? From which you will gather that two opinion polls have been released in Scotland these past few days and they cannot both be accurate.

Are those Home Office vans targeting illegal immigrants universally disliked? The outcry from when the vans first took to the streets — notably #racistvan on Twitter — would suggest so but new polling from YouGov shows a disconnect between what those in politics and media think and the rest of the country. Over half of those polled this week support the vans, up eight points when last questioned in July: Two thirds also stated they disagreed that the vans were racist, up five points since the last batch of polling, while only 34 per cent thought they were offensive and stupid. The campaign group Liberty were certainly offended; they were disgruntled enough to commission their own van.

As the House of Lords prepares to vote on gay marriage, a YouGov poll shows that the opinion of people who regard themselves as 'religious' is 48pc against and 44pc in favour of gay marriage. Given the margin of error, this can be seen as an even split. So why the acrimony? The answer, in my opinion, is the way that David Cameron has gone about this. He ought to have said something like: 'I'm in favour of religious freedom, and think it should be absolute. It's come to our attention that some liberal strands of Judaism and Unitarian churches want to conduct same-sex marriage ceremonies but are banned from doing so by the government. The state ought to have no role in religious affairs, so I'm lifting the ban.

Today’s Financial Times paints a poor picture for pro-Europeans: half of those polled want to leave the EU and just a third want to remain in. Plus, 41 per cent of those in favour of a Brexit will ‘definitely’ vote no even after a renegotiation, which suggests a tough challenge for the In campaign to swing some opinions. However, it’s also worth noting that the EU only ranks 15th on the FT’s list of important issues; healthcare and education are at the top of the list, with immigration coming in at eighth. YouGov has recently carried out some polling on immigration, with some interesting findings in the European context.