Us politics

American hacks have been mystified by what seems to be a ‘non-aggression pact’ between Republican presidential candidates Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. The two men are in many ways opposites. Paul is the favourite of anti-establishment conservatives — principled, dismissed by the media as too radical, critical of the Grand Old Party machine and US foreign policy. Romney, on the other hand, is a typical American politician — rich, lacking clear convictions, happy to talk about bombing the enemies of freedom. And yet — as Jonathan noted a few weeks ago — Paul, though he has repeatedly attacked Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, has been strangely mute when it comes to Mitt. Has a deal been struck?

Barack Obama’s re-election has been looking more and more likely in recent weeks. His approval rating has risen fairly steadily, economic forecasts have improved and he’s opened a nice lead in head-to-head polling against Mitt Romney, as the Republican primaries have taken their toll on his most likely opponent. But the latest polls show things moving dramatically in the other direction, for the first time since early October. A Washington Post-ABC poll conducted last week shows Obama’s approval rating dropping from a healthy 50 per cent last month to 46 per cent now. It also shows Romney leading Obama 49 to 47, compared to 51-45 to Obama last month.

After regaining the momentum with victories in Michigan and Arizona last week — and another in Washington State at the weekend — Mitt Romney looks set to enjoy a pretty good Super Tuesday. He’s very unlikely to win all ten states voting today, but will probably substantially strengthen his position in the all-important delegate race nonetheless. Much of the focus has been on the two biggest states: Georgia and Ohio. Georgia should provide Newt Gingrich with a much-needed and fairly comfortable victory — it is the state he represented in Congress, after all, and he’s focused a lot of his efforts there. The polls suggest a 20-point or so win for Gingrich in Georgia, but Romney looks likely to beat Rick Santorum for second place.

Tonight’s another very important night for the Republican presidential hopefuls, with primaries in Arizona and Michigan. Mitt Romney seems assured of a decent win in the former, where the latest two polls put him 16-17 points ahead of Rick Santorum. But Michigan is looking incredibly close — with the poll results of the last two days ranging from a four-point lead for Romney to a five-point lead for Santorum. It could go either way: Nate Silver’s model gives Romney a 55 per cent chance of victory to Santorum’s 45 per cent chance. With the polls this narrow, it will all come down to who’s best at getting their voters out — and even that is tough to predict here.

The rejuvenation of Barack Obama’s re-election hopes continues apace. He’s added seven points to his approval rating since November, improving it from the low 40s to around 50 per cent now. After months of polling neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney, he now boasts a six point lead. Just four months ago, the bookies thought he was more likely to lose the election than win it. Now Intrade gives him a 60 per cent chance of victory. Nate Silver has a great article on Obama’s chances in this week’s New York Times Magazine. He’s built a model to forecast the election results based on the three most important factors at this stage: Obama’s approval rating, his opponent’s ideology and economic growth.

Having reclaimed the mantle of ‘Anti-Romney in Chief’, Rick Santorum is now surging in the polls. He’s moved into a narrow lead at the national level and – more importantly – looks likely to win two of the next big states on the primary calendar: Michigan and Ohio. Of course, that makes him the new target of Romney attack ads. Restore Our Future – the pro-Romney Super PAC – has already released a video slamming Santorum as a ‘big spender’ and ‘Washington insider’, which it will air in Michigan, Ohio and Arizona.

Some well-informed people — Rupert Murdoch among them — have suggested that Mitt Romney could exploit Obama’s increasingly fractious relationship with America’s Catholics to win the presidential elections in November. The so-called 'Catholic vote' is often said to be the crucial swing factor in American democracy. Romney, however, may be facing a bigger socio-religious stumbling block than Obama's: evangelicals. They don’t like him. Mainstream Protestant Republicans in the north have plumped for Mitt, generally speaking, but he has been far less successful in the evangelical south. ‘As a county’s evangelical population expands,' says Real Clear Politics analyst Sean Trende, 'Romney’s vote share declines.