From our UK edition
A Populus poll for The Times shows that the Conservatives are more trusted to run vital services than Labour. Here are the details: ‘The Tories are now in a strong position on most public services, which have traditionally been vote-winners for Labour. On doing the best job of improving the NHS, the Tories are on 37 per cent (up 10 points since last March) against 34 per cent for Labour (down 1 point).
From our UK edition
Spot the difference: 5 September, 2009: Gordon Brown warns G20 countries against reining in spending, The Telegraph "Britain is resisting pressure from Germany and other Euro-currency countries who are planning to moves towards an 'exit strategy' that would see some of the planned anti-recessionary spending programmes being scaled back to cut rising national debts." 18 September, 2009: Gordon Brown to call for international agreement to cut public spending, The Telegraph "Mr Brown says 'exit strategies' from the emergency fiscal measures that were introduced to stave off the worst excesses of the recession need to be agreed by all the leading nations.
From our UK edition
With the Baroness Scotland housekeeper mini-scandal still in the air, I hear a delicious rumour. I'm told that in a surreal extension of Labour big tent policy, Gordon Brown approached Shami Chakrabarti about the job of Attorney-General. The hammer of the government's civil liberties turned down the offer. But the latest events provide the perfect opportunity for Gordon to offer it to her again. Of course he would have to ennoble her first. This would leave Shami in the Lords to act as a convenient thorn in the side of the Tory Party should it win the next election.
From our UK edition
A couple of weeks ago, Kevin Maguire told us that No.10 is thinking about a March or April general election. And now Steve Richards follows up by suggesting April is most likely: "Speaking to influential ministers and aides I get the impression that their favoured month for an election is next April. In theory they could hold out until June, but that would mean going to the country in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections when Labour is expected to do badly. This option is already ruled out. There will be no June election. Obviously a general election could be held on the same day as the May local elections and it is still a likely option. But that date is the equivalent of going right up against the buffers when the media and perhaps voters will be getting impatient.
From our UK edition
The news that the UK Border agency will launch an investigation into allegations that the Attorney General, Baroness Scotland, employed an illegal immigrant is, obviously, highly embarrassing for the government. With his customary lack of style, the Tories’ attack-dog Chris Grayling commented: "This is a Government that says all small employers should be prosecuted if they don't know the immigration status of their employees and yet we have senior ministers who can't be bothered to make the checks themselves. There is a real 'one rule for them, one rule for us' attitude at the heart of this Government and it is a disgrace." That overstates the case.
From our UK edition
Paul Waugh’s beaten us to it, but Ed Ball’s New Statesman article is a rallying cry to the left. He writes: ‘As we approach the most important general election for a generation, this is no time for introspection or defeatism. There's never been a moment when Labour's values and experience have been more relevant or necessary.’ And what are those values? Well, they’re not Blairite: ‘In public-service reform, we sometimes sounded as though private-sector solutions were always more efficient; and who can now doubt that, despite the tougher measures we brought in, financial regulation was not tough enough?
From our UK edition
For the Kremlinologists among us, Andrew Grice has an insightful article in today's Independent on the growing support for Ed Miliband in the Labour Party. He kicks it off by asking the pivotal question when it comes to the Brothers Miliband - "Will Ed Miliband eclipse brother David?" - and follows that up with some affirmative evidence: "...the word in Labour circles is that Ed is no longer trailing in his brother's wake. Indeed, some senior figures believe he has already overtaken him in the game that increasingly occupies Labour minds as the party appears to head for a general election defeat – its future leadership stakes... ...friends are quietly telling [Ed] that David will not be leader because he is seen as too Blairite.
From our UK edition
After Michael Fallon's claim last week that the shadow cabinet hasn't got "the faintest idea" of the commitment necessary to tackle the debt crisis, this anecdote from Benedict Brogan's column should act as another warning to David Cameron: "Whitehall is gripped by short-termism, yet in a world dominated by the targets culture introduced by Labour, is this any surprise? When ministers themselves prioritise short-term results that can be ready for the Six O'Clock News or the autumn conference, how can the Civil Service hold out for the long view?
From our UK edition
Did Bush or Paulson have a clue what they were doing? It’s an intriguing question. James flagged up the view of Bush’s speechwriter Matt Latimer that Paulson, not Bush, was to blame. But, in this month’s Vanity Fair, Todd.S. Purdum flips the coin. Based on interviews with Paulson, conducted as the bailout unfolded, the article’s a brilliant piece of long-form journalism: describing the chicanery on Capitol Hill as Paulson, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernancke sought desperately for a deal with Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank. Paulson was in no doubt that Congressional Republicans were responsible for the foul up.
From our UK edition
Nick Clegg joins the ‘progressive’ debate with a double of salvo in The Times and in a pamphlet, titled ‘The liberal moment’, published by Demos. The philosophically anachronistic Labour party is his target. He writes: ‘The contrast between Labour and liberals is starkest in their different approaches to power. While Labour hoards at the centre, liberals believe that power must be dispersed away from government - downwards to individuals and communities, and upwards to the international institutions needed to tackle our collective problems. State-centered, top-down solutions are wholly out of step with the demands of our age.
From our UK edition
The Independent's Hamish McRae writes a superb column today on just how far the next government will have to go to tackle Brown's debt crisis. His main point is that unless severe action is taken over the coming years, we'll be stuck in a perilous position by the time the next global downturn hits. But it's this passage which stands out: "To what extent will the deficit fix itself, and how much more needs to be done? We don't have to do the full 13 per cent of GDP and the present government proposed in the Budget that it should cut about half, 6.4 per cent of GDP, of that over an eight-year period. Vince Cable, who seems to have become the nation's favourite financial GP, suggests an eight per cent correction over five years.
From our UK edition
Iain Duncan Smith's Centre for Social Justice has released a very important report today, and one which should influence the welfare debate for years to come. At around 350 pages, it's a weighty enough tome, but I'd recommend that CoffeeHousers give it a flick through. Its subject is how to fix a benefits system which incentivises worklessness. At the moment, unemployed people are eligible for so many benefits – there are 51 in total – that they can accumulate an income which rivals, or sometimes even exceeds, the wage they'd get by taking a job. And even if they could get more money in work, the current benefits system still acts as a disincentive.
From our UK edition
At The Spectator, we’ve been so close to the spending debate that one worries about losing perspective. But this post from Faisal Islam gives one a sense of just how important today’s revelations are: “We have never seen this level of detail on a budget situation before. Much of what was implied or left out of the budget is stated in astonishing detail here. It is a total disaster for the treasury and the government, but some will argue the Tories have taken a big risk with financial confidence in publishing it.
From our UK edition
On July 2nd, Gordon Brown told the House of Commons: “I have always told the truth and I've always told people as it is...we don't want to have the 10 per cent cuts the Conservatives are talking about.” The Tories’ extremely destructive Treasury mole has leaked documents proving that Labour has been planning substantial cuts in front line services since before the budget. The DEL figures, printed below, are key: suggesting that a cumulative 9.3% cut was planned for 2011-2014, and Paul Waugh is right to point out that these revelations may explain why the government delayed its comprehensive spending review.
From our UK edition
One of David Cameron’s chief successes has been to marginalise Europe as an issue. But the expulsion of Edward McMillan-Scott MEP from the Conservative party, for refusing to withdraw allegations he made against Michal Kaminski, the leader of the controversial Eurosceptic grouping of which the Tories are members, has disinterred the fractious European problem. The Europhile McMillan-Scott launched a pointed attack on the Tory leadership and its European policy on this morning’s Today programme. He said: “I think David Cameron has got most things right on Europe, but this partnership (the grouping) matters...What we will see is the party becoming much more Eurosceptic than it seems now.
From our UK edition
Anticipate the demise of Gordon Brown. Imagine Labour’s search for a leader with voter-appeal. Picture a younger Shirley Williams, but with the experience and affection she already commands. Wouldn’t she be a powerful contender? Couldn’t a new Shirley Williams, updated for the 21st century and reinserted into the Labour Party, give the rest a run for their money? Lady Williams’s style of politics has weathered better than that of any of her erstwhile Labour contemporaries. She’s just the sort of thing they need. Climbing the Bookshelves is the story of the woman who forsook all that, and what made her. The story of what made her is much the more interesting half.
From our UK edition
One of the features of the coming general election campaign is going to be the use of video attacks ads by outside groups. The idea is that a sufficiently well-produced or controversial one will be able to drive the news agenda and, rather like Dan Hannan’s European Parliament speech, become a story in and of itself. Conservative Home’s response to Gordon Brown’s use of the word ‘cuts’ today is a preview of the kind of thing we can expect come the spring.
From our UK edition
James Purnell has just spoken at The Spectator’s Paths to Prosperity conference, with sideburns bushier than ever after the summer. He was doing an on-stage interview with Andrew Neil and was quite firm on the release of al-Megrahi. "He should have died in jail” said Purnell. “I would have left him in jail." I suspect the freedom to say such things is one of the reasons that Purnell quit government. He later took questions (quite often rude ones) from the floor. Sir Richard Sykes had been on earlier, talking about the dismal state of British education, and Purnell was asked why he couldn’t just agree that schools had gone downhill too. He drew the line at trashing Labour’s record on education. But I think we can see Purnell set off into his own orbit.
From our UK edition
Six months after a Politics Home/Spectator poll illustrated that ‘cuts’ was no longer a dirty word, Gordon Brown squared up and let slip the c-word. A new Politics Home ‘insider poll’ reveals that 86% of respondents believe Labour would be in a stronger position now if they had admitted the need for future cuts at the time of the Budget. That is almost certainly true: the obvious contrivance that was ‘Tory cuts versus Labour investment’, together with the invention of 0% rise economics, torpedoed the government’s credibility.
From our UK edition
Vince Cable has joined the cuts debate, arguing that the “time for generalities is over” and that “politicians must not shy away from explaining in detail how they will tackle the problem of deficits and debt”. He identified 9 areas for specific savings: public sector pay and pensions, centralised education, family tax credits, defence procurement, quangos, asset sales, ID cards and the NHS super computer. Crucially, he stated that no department should be “ring-fenced”, and proposed cutting fees paid to hospitals and scrapping the strategic health authority, a move backed by Michael Fallon in a Telegraph article last week.
