Uk politics

If, as the Westminster rumour mill suggests, business minister Baroness Shriti Vadera is about to resign from the Government, it is a far greater blow to the beleaguered prime minister than the loss of a PPS no one's ever heard of over the Baroness Scotland affair, the potential loss of Lady Scotland herself, or even the refusal of Barack Obama to grant him a private audience ahead of the G20 summit. Vadera has been one of Brown's most loyal sidekicks for more than a decade, and unlike anyone else who fits that description, she is the very opposite of a spin doctor or political hack.

Financial Times research has revealed that Labour has lost its traditional northern strongholds under Gordon Brown. Here are the details: ‘The Tories have built a narrow four-point lead in the north, eradicating the 19-point Labour lead in the region that underpinned Tony Blair’s last general election victory, the research shows. The 11.5 percentage point swing from Labour to the Tories in the north since the May 2005 poll is the largest for any region of Britain. The FT analysis suggests Mr Cameron has yet to win over fully pivotal “Middle England” voters. He has built a convincing lead among the well-off AB upper and upper-middle socio-economic groups.

In his interview with the FT, Nick Clegg says that the Lib Dems have been too “reticent” about making Europe a dividing line with the Tories. There’s little doubt that Clegg, a former MEP is an ideological pro-European. But if he starts banging on about Europe he’ll cause his party problems. The Lib Dems have several seats in the South West, one of the most Euro-sceptic regions of the county. As the European elections results there showed, when Europe is the issue the Lib Dems do badly. If Clegg really does intend to make Europe a key campaign dividing line, then the Tories will fancy their chance of picking up a fair few of these South Western marginals.

Gordon Brown is expected to offer to decommission one of Britain’s four Trident submarines as part of nuclear non-proliferation discussions at the UN today. The Times has the details: ‘Mr Brown will signal tomorrow that he is ready to negotiate at a meeting of the UN Security Council on nuclear non-proliferation. It follows President Obama’s decision to ditch the US missile defence shield in Eastern Europe. That move, and Russia’s delighted response, has bolstered hopes that a new non-proliferation treaty could be agreed next spring. Officials travelling with the Prime Minister to New York insisted that there was no question of surrendering Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent.

This morning it emerged that Julia Goldsworth, the Lib Dems’ communities’ spokesman, who nominally supervises local taxation, knew nothing of the mansion tax until hearing it announced over the radio. The Guardian’s Allegra Stratton writes that Goldsworthy’s disclosure proves that Clegg and Cable run a ‘duopoly on leadership’. Cable is not as popular within his party and resentment is building on the frontbenches. Andrew Neil reports that a private meeting of Lib Dem MPs rounded on Cable and his “suicidal” mansion tax. Also, Stratton was informed by one frontbencher that “Clegg will have to sack Vince” after the election. Cable has begun to resemble the court’s jester rather than its grand vizier.

The Conservatives’ unrequited love for the Liberal Democrats receives attention this morning. The Times' Rachel Sylvetser points out that in reality, away from dreams of government and official opposition, the Lib Dems have everything to gain by giving in to David Cameron’s and Eric Pickles’ serenades: ‘They set themselves up as the party of honesty, who will tell the truth about fiscal restraint, but on the issue over which they have most control — the role they would play in a hung Parliament — they offer only obfuscation. They define themselves constantly in terms of the other two parties, then when it comes to the crunch they refuse to say what demands they would make in return for their co-operation.