Uk politics

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Darling’s Budget takes shape

From our UK edition

Yep, it's that time of the year again – when the government starts briefing about the contents of the Budget.  First up, there's the news that Alistair Darling may cut projected borrowing figures by £5-10 billion, thanks to higher-than-expected tax receipts.  And then there's Peter Mandelson's claim that new tax rises would have to be considered a year from now – implying, perhaps, that there won't many in this year's Budget. Many folk around Westminister were surprised that the government was putting out a pre-election Budget – especially given the sorry state of the public finances.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Age doesn’t matter on Coffee House

From our UK edition

I've just come back from the Guardian's "changing media" conference, speaking about the future of our industry and The Spectator's intrepid adventures into cyberspace. I had a few gags in my wee speech, but the biggest laugh was when I said that the average reader of Spectator.co.uk is pushing 50 years old. That took me aback - is it so funny? The average age of the magazine reader is higher still, I said - more laughter.     It seemed deeply unfashionable to the trendies who made up (part of) the audience - surely the future lies in twenty-somethings? I have never bought this, for many reasons. First, The Spectator's pitch is to a set of values: quality of writing, elegance of thought, independence of opinion. That appeal cuts across all age groups.

David Blackburn

It’s turning into an extremely good week for Osborne

From our UK edition

The gods are smiling on George Osborne. On Monday, he wrote an excellent article in the FT, explaining why he opposed the government’s fiscal plans and giving a brief sketch of his alternative vision. It was a short, sharp, shock article that contrasted with the tentative and nebulous announcements that characterised the Tory post-New Year slump. They were immediate benefits. On Tuesday, the EU Commission broadly supported the Conservative position on reducing public spending, and today a City AM poll indicated that 77 percent of a panel of City experts think that cuts must be made this year. Indeed, many panellists rejected Samuel Brittan’s contention, elucidated in last week’s Spectator, that the markets expect the continuation of current strategy.

Peter Hoskin

When does reputational damage become real damage?

From our UK edition

So has the Lord Ashcraft saga fouled the Tories' reputation?  Well, looking at this One Poll survey in PR Week it would seem it has.  52 percent of respondents feel that the party's reputation hasn't improved since the start of the year – and 37 percent think that the Ashcroft revelations are the biggest contributing factor to that. But what does all that really mean?  After all, another finding is that 20 percent of respondents believe that the 2006 story about a bike-riding Cameron being trailed by his chauffeur is "still damaging" to the Tories.  That may be so.  But will that kind of reputational "damage" really stop people voting for the Tories come the election?  Similarly, will the Ashcroft story actually sway hearts and minds?

Peter Hoskin

The Tories try to plug a leak

From our UK edition

What a difference two weeks make.  When the Ashcroft story first broke, the Tory response was equal parts sloppy and defensive.  Now, their operation seems altogether more incisive.  William Hague kicked off his Today programme interview by saying that leak of Cabinet Office papers to the BBC was proof of Labour's "culture of leak, half-truth and spin".  And Sir George Young has just written to the Cabinet Secretary asking him to hold an inquiry into the matter.  Here's a copy of the letter: Sir Gus O'Donnell KCB Cabinet Secretary Cabinet Office 70 Whitehall London SW1A 2AS   Sensitive papers prepared by the Cabinet Office for a Select Committee inquiry have been leaked to the BBC. You will be aware that this is a serious matter.

Peter Hoskin

The Lib Dems keep ’em guessing

From our UK edition

Last week, Nick Clegg was singing the blues.  But, this week, it's clear that he's doing as much as possible to distinguish his party from the others.  Indeed, his performance in PMQs yesterday was a case in point: he went out of his way to attack both Brown and Cameron, and positioned his side as the non-Unite, non-Ashcroft choice.  Given the Lib Dem's recent history with dodgy donors, that's a move which - at the very least - is going to ruffle a few red and blue feathers. So it's striking, today, that the Lib Dems are probably going even heavier on the Ashcroft story than Labour.

Peter Hoskin

The Tories and Lord Ashcroft – stupidity rather than wrongdoing?<br />

From our UK edition

So the Lord Ashcroft story is back on the airwaves, courtesy of a document leaked to the BBC.  That document shows William Hague was "satisfied" with the discussions about Ashcroft's undertakings in 2000 – so the Tories wheeled the shadow foreign secretary onto the Today programme to explain himself to Evan Davis.  Three things struck me: i) Stupidity rather than wrongdoing.  When the Ashcroft story first broke a couple of weeks ago, Labour seemed eager to turn it into one of Tory wrongdoing – they called for inquiries left, right and centre (indeed, there's one taking place today), in the apparent hope that they'd find something improper had gone on.   But the more that's emerged, the less likely that has become.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

The cost of Brown’s propaganda splurge

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown has been shameless in using the tools of state to advance his party political objectives – to him, government is electoral war by other means. Anyone who has turned on a commercial radio station recently will have worked out his latest trick: a mass propaganda splurge before an election campaign. Get on a bus, and it can be 100 percent state adverts – advising how Big Brother will help you get a job, buy a car, see off door-to-door salesmen, give you a job in the prison services – anything you want. We at The Spectator have tracked down the figures that show the extent of all this. State advertising was £13 million in December – yet surged to £34 million last month.

James Forsyth

The Tories’ growing mood of quiet confidence

From our UK edition

It is worth pointing out, because it is so different from what was happening a few weeks back, that the Tories are having another good day today. Gordon Brown has been forced to admit at PMQs that he had got his defence statistics wrong when addressing both the Commons and the Chilcot inquiry, the Unite story is rumbling on and there are various rows breaking out over Labour’s process for selecting candidates. All of this has led to a distinct improvement in Tory morale. A few weeks ago, Tory MPs were irritated and despondent. Some had even started ruminating on the leadership challenge that would occur if the Tories were not returned as the largest party. But there is now a mood of quiet confidence among Tory MPs that the party will win a small but workable majority.

Peter Hoskin

Words fail me…

From our UK edition

...when it comes to the Lib Dem's offical election song, performed by the Liberal Democrat Community Choir: You can, er, buy it on iTunes if you like.

James Forsyth

The Chancellor’s debate is an opportunity for Osborne

From our UK edition

So, we have a date for the Chancellor’s debate. Channel 4 News will host Darling, Cable and Osborne on Monday the 29th of March at 8pm.   I have a suspicion that George Osborne will come out of this debate rather well. He doesn’t have an expectations problem, unlike Cable, and is quick on his feet. Most importantly, the facts are on his side. It is also worth remembering, as one Tory MP reminded me earlier this week, that since becoming shadow Chancellor Osborne has never failed on a set-piece occasion.   One thing that Osborne must do in the debates is make sure he takes on Cable as well as Darling. Cable’s reputation is over-inflated and Osborne has an opportunity to score some points by highlighting the contradictions in Cable’s record.

Peter Hoskin

Will Nick Griffin become a victim of his own expense claims?

From our UK edition

If two things fuelled the rise of the BNP last year, then they were probably the mainstream parties' reluctance to talk about immigration and a general disillusionment with Westminster politicians in the wake of the expenses scandal.  There are tentative signs that the parties are getting their act together on the first.  And, now, Nick Griffin  may have undermined his own party when it comes to the second. After coming under fire for not being transparent about expenses since becoming an MEP, Griffin has now published a very loose account of them on his website.

David Blackburn

Two blasts from the past

From our UK edition

Michael Savage observes that Cameron’s denunciation of Brown’s 'weak' premiership recalled Tony Blair’s famous savaging of the ‘weak, weak, weak’ Major government . Here it is: After watching that, I chanced upon an exchange between Blair and Cameron, dated November 2006. Their subject? NHS budget cuts. The first two minutes of the clip reinforce just how complicit the Conservatives were in Brown and Blair’s free for all. Cameron was aghast that "budgets were being raided to solve financial deficits".

David Blackburn

The Tories’ Unite strategy is paying unimagined dividends

From our UK edition

The Tories Unite strategy has been so effective, even Peter Mandelson is peddling it. Led by Mandelson, Labour’s isolated right has questioned Unite’s influence over candidate selection. James Purnell’s preferred successor, Jonny Reynolds, was omitted from the Stalybridge and Hyde shortlist, compiled by the NEC, which has two Unite members on its board. Mandelson and Purnell have urged Downing Street to reopen the race. For its part, Unite responded. One of its preferred candidates for the seat, Glyn Ford, who failed to make the cut, demanded a right to appeal also. The Tories’ must be ecstatic. Their strategy, initially conceived to nullify the Ashcroft scandal, is paying unimagined dividends.

Peter Hoskin

For the workers?

From our UK edition

One of the defences that Labour types are mustering over Unite is, bascially, that it's better to be funded by a body which represents some two million workers than by Ashcroft type figures who may have their own personal agendas. In which case, the question is: do Charlie Whelan and his coterie really represent the views and interests of Unite's members?  And, in answer, it's worth pulling out two snippets from today's papers. EXHIBIT A, courtesy of Danny Finkelstein: "A Populus poll of Unite members last year showed the majority preferring David Cameron to Gordon Brown and opposing Unite donations to Labour.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

The Tory campaign is getting back on track

From our UK edition

Whisper it quietly, but there is a sense that the Tory campaign is getting back on track. The Tories have had three good days in a row, have Labour on the back foot over Unite and the polls appear to be moving in their favour. Certainly, Tory morale is better than at any point since the start of the year. One thing raising Tory spirits is Cameron’s own performance. As Iain Martin points out, on Sunday Brown met the voters and was incapable of finding the right tone. Cameron, by contrast, is at his best among ‘real’ people as Monday’s event demonstrated. Another thing bolstering Tory morale is their campaign against Unite’s influence. After taking a kicking over Ashcroft for more than a week, CCHQ staff are delighted to be the ones on the offensive.

David Blackburn

Clarke and Osborne are working well

From our UK edition

The Daily Politics featured a telling exchange between Stephen Timms and Ken Clarke. Their arguments were unclear and their hypotheticals relentless - they were debating deficit reduction. A football phone-in DJ had been invited onto the programme to adjudicate. After 7 minutes he broke his befuddled silence and declared, understandably, that Clarke and Timms were a turn-off to ordinary voters. Immediately, Clarke responded clearly and directly, making a case for reducing the deficit with reference to the chillingly close reality of Greece’s collapse. He avoided patronising, homespun economics; and simply delivered bald analysis and a statement of intent with his characteristic gusto. By contrast, Timms remained silent. Clarke is the Tories’ prize-fighter.

Daniel Korski

The EU has moved on from 1983

From our UK edition

A lot of things, you will agree, have changed since 1983 - even in the world of diplomacy. For one, the EU has moved from a loose federation of states towards a new kind of polity - never a United States of Europe, heaven forbid, but more than just a loose arrangement of member-states. But reading George Walden's comment about Europe's putative diplomatic service in the Times I can't help but feel that he is still living in the age when he left the Foreign Office - when David Cameron was 17. The EU diplomatic service is not the novelty that pro-Lisbon politicians claim. To a large extent, it already exists in the more than 120 European Commission delegations and the 11 high-level EU envoys.

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg pulls those fences down

From our UK edition

Continuing the current vogue for sensible economic debate, here's what Nick Clegg said on Radio 4 just now: 'We're not entering into this dutch auction about ringfencing. Good outcomes aren't determined by drawing a redline around government departmental budgets.' Given the current speculation about a hung parliament, you've got to wonder what this might mean for any potential Lib-Con partnership.  The common wisdom, almost certainly correct, is that the resulting political paralysis would sink the public finances.  But it would be intrigiuing to see if Clegg could get the Tories to tighten their fiscal plans, and perhaps even smash a few of their ringfences.

Daniel Korski

ECR’s record so far

From our UK edition

The decision by David Cameron to pull the Tories out of the EPP and form the ECR was a victory of principle and party politics over pragmatism. While many Tory grassroots howled with joy, it is worth examining the practical consequences on Tory influence in the European Parliament – not to reverse the decision, but validate or disprove the oft-made charge that the decision has made the Tories impotent.   Let us eschew any discussion about the views of key members of the ECR on Jews; let us also not dwell on whether the Tories have cut themselves off from other centre-right leaders. The first point is a matter of opinion and the second is uncontestable. Let us instead focus on how the ECR has done its work in the legislature.