Uk politics

Sunday

James Forsyth

Why Ed Miliband shouldn’t be underestimated

From our UK edition

There is a feeling on the right that with the election of Ed Miliband it is back to the good old days. The thinking goes that Labour have elected a lefty as leader and it is time "to do ‘em over just like we did back in the day". But this is overly-simplistic. First of all, Ed Miliband is certainly to the left of Tony Blair but he’s nowhere near as far left, compared to the public, as Michael Foot or Tony Benn, or anyone like that. Second, the right in the ‘80s had three fronts on which to attack left-wing politicians: economics, culture and national defence. Now, it only really has one. The economic argument is, obviously, still live. But the cultural one is now gone.

Peter Hoskin

The Whelan factor

From our UK edition

Is Ed Miliband is in cahoots with the unions? My guess is that he will have to be – and perhaps is – more centrist than all that. But, in any case, this kind of testimony from Charlie Whelan, speaking to the Guardian's Jonathan Freedland, is hardly going to defuse the issue: "The former spokesman for Gordon Brown told me in the Radisson hotel how the 'Big Four' union leaders had sat together in the summer working out who was best placed to be the 'stop David' candidate. Their own personal preference would probably have been Ed Balls, but a lack of initial support among MPs suggested his chances were limited.

James Forsyth

Labour’s subdued response to Miliband’s victory

From our UK edition

There’s an odd mood in Manchester at the moment. The leadership election result has discombobulated the Labour establishment. In some circles, there is irritation that union votes delivered the leadership to Ed Miliband against the wishes of the MPs and party members. Others worry that this has all come too soon for Ed Miliband, that – in the words of one senior member of the last government – "he still doesn’t know what he thinks". While others are still getting their heads round the family dynamic. It was striking that when people arrived in the conference hotel bar from the Ed Miliband victory party they were not mobbed. But Ed Miliband’s performance on Marr this morning was steady, there were – as Pete notes – no mistakes.

Peter Hoskin

Ed Miliband tries to detoxify his brand

From our UK edition

The scrubbing job starts in earnest this morning, as Ed Miliband tries to erase that "Red" epithet from before his name. Exhibit A was his appearance on the Andrew Marr show, in which he took every opportunity to cast the manner of his victory in a favourable light. "If you look at this as one vote-one member, then I got more votes than anyone else," he assured us, before going on to say that he won the union vote because, "I spoke about things that matter to working people in this country." When asked whether he would sway under pressure from the union leadership, he averred, "I'm nobody's man, I'm my own man – and I'm very, very clear about that." And as a final flourish, "I'm certainly not Bob Crow's man.

Saturday

James Forsyth

The dignity of David Miliband

From our UK edition

We spend a lot of time criticising politicians so it behoves us to praise one when they behave with as much dignity as David Miliband has today. He has lost the Labour leadership election by the narrowest of margins and despite winning among both party members and MPs, but there has not been even a hint of bitterness or irriation in his behaviour. After the result, David addressed his team, telling them to rally around his brother. He told them their job was to ensure that Labour keeps the pressure on the coalition through the comprehensive spending review. Right now, David Miliband is touring the conference hotel, talking to conference delegates. On his face, there is no sign of the disappointment that he must be feeling.

James Forsyth

The aftermath of Labour’s contest

From our UK edition

As soon as the first round result popped up the screen, an expert on the Labour electoral college turned to me and said ‘Ed has won’. David was not far enough ahead on first preferences to win. But it was also clear that David was likely to win MPs and members — that Ed was going to win thanks to the union vote. Now, the union vote is no longer a bloc vote. But in terms of legitimacy it is widely perceived to trail the members and MPs sections. The nature of his victory will make Ed Miliband’s task harder over the next few weeks, the Red Ed tag is now more dangerous to him.

Fraser Nelson

Will Ed Miliband face facts?

From our UK edition

I knew that David Miliband had lost the moment I saw him walk in the room, smiling like Michael Portillo on election night 1997. And when I saw Ed Balls look of pure murder: his enemy had won. Time to destroy. We saw a tension in this result: the MPs and members leaned towards David, who had a tough message on the deficit, who defended the Iraq war, who basically had an agenda for government. Whereas Ed Miliband's agenda is for opposition: he'll be marching alongside the unions the day before Osborne's spending review. As I say in the News of the World tomorrow, Ed will ooze left wing morals and righteous anger and that will work well in opposition. But as Michael Foot found in 1983, it means you strike the country as being not quite serious about government.

Peter Hoskin

The unions deliver Ed Miliband to the throne

From our UK edition

In the end, it was all quite exciting. After four months of soporific campaigning, after a speech by Gordon Brown, after tribute video upon tribute video, it all came down to an astonishingly tense round of results. And Ed Miliband edged out his brother by just over 1 percentage point overall, 50.6 to 49.4. It may have been the outcome that most punters expected coming into today – but it is not one that many would have predicted, with any confidence, back in May. Looking at the full voting split, a less flattering picture emerges. David Miliband actually won two of the three voting blocks: the MPs turned out 53-47 in his favour, the members 54-46 likewise. But it was the unions wot won it for Ed: the brothers gave him their votes in a 60-40 ratio.

Peter Hoskin

Ed Miliband elected Labour leader: live blog

From our UK edition

1704, PH: We'll leave it there, although we'll have more reaction on Coffee House shortly. 1702, PH: I've already forgotten Miliband's final line, although it involved the phrase "new generation". Not a great speech, but some turnaround for him over the course of the contest. 1700, PH: Ooh, what does that mean for Ed Balls? Miliband says that, "I do believe we've got to reduce the deficit, but we've got to do more to help the country". 1700, JF: It is what Labour MPs were calling the Doomsday scenario, Ed loses MPs and Members but wins thanks to massive support in the union section. Tonight there will be those who will question the legitimacy of a leader who did not win the majority support of either his MPs or his party members.

James Forsyth

Cameron neglects to mention his tax cut for the middle classes

From our UK edition

David Cameron’s interview in the Telegraph this morning is striking for three reasons. First, despite the interview appearing on the day of the Labour leadership declaration, there’s no attempt to bring the hammer down on the new Labour leader. All we get is some framing on the deficit. Next, as Paul Goodman notes, it is an attempt to reassure the Tory faithful after the Lib Dem conference Vince Cable is gently put back in his box with the line ‘Vince is Vince’. Cameron also stresses that he ‘will always safeguard our nuclear deterrent’; a line that is very different from the nakedly political discussions of Trident in Liverpool, where what seemed matter to most was making life difficult for Labour.

Peter Hoskin

The real battle begins tomorrow

From our UK edition

So what's all the fuss about today, then? Ah, yes, the election of the new Labour leader. We should know the result around 1640 this afternoon – but, this morning, most commentators are indulging in the idea that Ed has won it. The younger Miliband and his team said to be optimistic, his elder brother less so. At the very least, a remarkable turnaround has taken place. Just before the contest began, MiliD was some way ahead of his sibling in the bookies' calculations. Now, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on MiliE. What happens today, though, is in some respects less important than what happens tomorrow. Today will be the day for triumph and commiseration, for tubthumping speeches about taking Labour back into government.

Friday

James Forsyth

It’s all over

From our UK edition

The word here in Westminster is that the result of the Labour leadership contest has been certified. The significance of this is that it means the result is not close enough for the party officials to think that there is any need for a recount.

David Blackburn

David Miliband preparing for defeat

From our UK edition

There are rumours swirling around Westminster, supposedly issuing from the elder Miliband’s camp, that David Miliband already knows he's lost. As we know, he has said he will serve loyally under Ed Miliband. But there has been enough reported bad blood between the brothers to suggest that defeat would leave him inconsolable.

Peter Hoskin

Yvette Cooper: a better Balls?

From our UK edition

One thing's for sure: Iain Duncan Smith won't pay much attention to Yvette Cooper's article in the Times (£) today – but the public might, and that's what makes it such an artful piece of opposition politics. The whole thing is structured as a letter to IDS and, crucially, the tone is conciliatory and cooperative. "You and I agree that we should get more people into work," she begins, before eventually landing on, "you need to stand up and shout for this in government. We will support you if you do." But underneath this sweet talk there's a streak of malicious intent that comes straight from her husband's political textbook. And so we read that the Treasury is "on a sabotage mission".

Ed Howker

Labour caves to divisive Livingstone

From our UK edition

If I was a member of the Labour party I would be feeling pretty uneasy this afternoon as news of Ken Livingstone's victory in the mayoral candidates battle sinks in. There is a cold reality about cuddly uncle Ken which deserves serious examination: he is a ruthless political operative who will sell out everyone, including his own party, to win. But Ken is not just a divisive figure, he was also a sinister Mayor, presiding over an wildly dysfunctional London Development Agency, controlling policy for London through a cabal of advisers calling themselves 'Socialist Action' and getting chummy with divisive and radical islamists including Yusuf al-Qaradawi.

David Blackburn

Three quarters of voters side with Cable

From our UK edition

Politics Home has published an important poll, showing the staggering level of support for Vince Cable’s conference speech. The government will be pleased that its political attack on the financial services industry’s continued excess at time of austerity is cutting through; on the other hand, this could be seen as support for Cable’s emotive rhetoric. Worse still, the poll suggests that traditional Tory voters are the only group for whom Nick Clegg is more impressive than Cable. The business secretary has to be kept in government – the coalition can't afford to have a charismatic wreaking havoc from the backbenches. Support for Vince Cable conference speech Who are the impressive Liberal Democrat politicians?

Peter Hoskin

Hancock strikes again<font size="1"><font face="Helvetica, Verdana, Arial"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><br /> </span></font></font>

From our UK edition

Yesterday, Matthew Hancock constructed what you might call the defensive part of the government's argument on cuts: an explanation of how spending restraint can be good for the country. Today, he strides forward with the offensive component: an attack dossier that asks of the new Labour leader, "What would you cut, Mr Miliband?" By Hancock's calculations, David Miliband needs to set out £55 billion of cuts to meet his deficit reduction plans. For Ed Miliband, that figure hits £67 billion. The attack is two-pronged. First, it pushes the idea – contra Ed Balls – that cuts are necessary. And, second, it puts the Labour leader immediately on the back foot.

James Forsyth

Boris v Ken, round 2

From our UK edition

What we have long expected has now been confirmed: Ken Livingstone will be Labour’s candidate against Boris in 2012. From the moment he lost, Livingstone has been working out how to beat Boris in 2012. He is consumed by a desire to be London’s mayor when the Olympics open in 2012. Boris won the mayoralty in almost the best conditions possible for a Conservative candidate — the Tories in opposition, an unpopular Labour government and an economy in mess. He’ll be running for re-election in almost the worst — a Conservative led government making deep spending cuts.   But if any Conservative can win in these circumstances, it is Boris. The fact Ken is his opponent will also help Boris again turn out the outer Zones.

Peter Hoskin

Ed Balls steps up his bid for the shadow chancellorship

From our UK edition

With the result but a day away, there's plenty of radio chatter about the Labour leadership election this morning. The Guardian reports that MiliD will work for MiliE if he loses. The FT observes Harriet Harman shifting towards the Eds' position on the deficit, even if she is remaining neutral in the contest itself. A Populus poll for the Times (£) suggests that Gordon Brown is currently more popular among Labour supporters than either of the Milibands (which is deeply amusing). And Political Betting is calling it for Ed Miliband. But perhaps the most noteworthy contributions come courtesy of Ed Balls, compiled and skilfully analysed by Sunder Katwala over at Next Left.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Another obstacle in the way of free schools

From our UK edition

A few weeks ago, I wrote a cover story about how teachers' unions are trying to strangle the Gove schools agenda at birth. But I fear it is facing an even greater, more immediate threat: basic bungling by government departments. The FT today says that the Department of Transport wants to make sure that local authorities keep the right to veto a new school. Armed with such a weapon, it is a sure way of crushing any competition. The DoT's argument is staggeringly banal: that a new school may play havoc with the traffic. If you're a local authority, wanting to use any means possible to stop a new school competing with the ones you run, it's all the excuse you need.