Uk politics

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: Liam Fox on what voters want

From our UK edition

As Liam Fox addressed a packed Carlton Club fringe this evening on a mezzanine floor in the ICC in Birmingham, a round of loud singing broke out on the floor below. The Prime Minister had appeared at another reception, and guests were cheerily singing 'happy birthday' to him. As the PM celebrated his birthday, his former defence secretary was dispensing advice just a few metres above his head on what the Conservative promise on Europe should be in 2015.

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron must beware of hitting his dream ‘striver’ voters

From our UK edition

Now that the Tories have at least agreed within their own party that they can find £10 billion of further cuts to the welfare budget, they are starting to ramp up the rhetoric on why it's fair to do this, and how they can achieve it. Yesterday, Chancellor George Osborne said this: 'Where is the fairness, we ask, for the shift-worker, leaving home in the dark hours of the early morning, who looks up at the closed blinds of their next door neighbour sleeping off a life on benefits? When we say we're all in this together, we speak for that worker. We speak all those who want to work hard and get on.' Today, David Cameron described the sort of person that he thinks the Conservatives don't speak for as he fleshed out some of his thoughts on where the next round of welfare cuts might fall.

Jonathan Jones

IMF: Anatomy of a downgrade

From our UK edition

Growth forecast downgrades should come as no surprise these days, but when they come from the IMF they naturally command a fair bit of attention. In fact, the IMF's downgrades for annual GDP change — to -0.4 per cent in 2012 (from +0.2) and +1.1 per cent in 2013 (from +1.4) — simply bring them into line with the consensus. The below graph shows how the average of independent forecasts for 2012 growth has changed over the last few  months: Given that the ONS shows the economy having contracted by 0.7 per cent in the first half of this year, the IMF's forecast of a 0.4 per cent contraction for the whole of 2012 implies slight growth of about 0.2 per cent in the second half. And, as always, growth downgrades have a nasty knock-on effect for George Osborne's deficit plans.

Alex Massie

Scottish Tory Leader to Scots: Drop Dead – Spectator Blogs

From our UK edition

These days, alas, the only time the leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party makes it onto the front pages of the nation's newspapers is if she's made some almighty blunder. Sadly, Ruth Davidson's speech to a fringe meeting in Birmingham this week was a calamity. That's the subject of my latest Think Scotland piece: Ruth Davidson's suggestion, made during an appearance at a fringe event in Birmingham this week, that, in effect, most Scots spend their lives suckling on the government teat is not, I'm afraid, a helpful one.

James Forsyth

Conservative conference: Michael Gove’s facts on the ground

From our UK edition

The speed with which Michael Gove is going about his education reforms means that he is creating facts on the grounds, facts which Labour will—I suspect—have to accept by the next election. Parents with children at new free schools and academies are not going to vote for a party that is going to abolish their child’s school. For example, the mother of a child at a Birmingham free school—Geraldine Henry—spoke at Tory conference today in favour of free schools. I expect that Henry would never have expected to find herself speaking at a Tory conference but she clearly felt compelled to come and promote and defend her son’s school.

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: Michael Gove indulges in his favourite sport of trade union-bashing

From our UK edition

As I was running the daily leaflet gauntlet at the entrance to the Tory conference this morning, a man thrust a flyer for the Trade Union Reform Campaign in front of me, saying hopefully 'trade union bashing?'. He clearly hadn't got Robert Halfon's memo about not bashing the unions, and neither had Michael Gove when he addressed delegates a few minutes ago. He indulged in his favourite sport and took direct aim at the teaching unions, claiming that some union secretaries had told him not to praise high-performing schools as it risked making other schools feel uncomfortable: 'How can we succeed as a country when every time we find success and celebrate it there are those who say 'no, someone might feel uncomfortable'.

Fraser Nelson

The Spectator debate: George Osborne isn’t working: we need a Plan B

From our UK edition

Today’s downgrades from the IMF have overshadowed the Tory conference and pose an awkward question: if George Osborne’s policies were working, wouldn’t they be working by now? Is it time for a Plan B? It’s the biggest issue in British politics right now and we at The Spectator are bringing together two former Chancellors to discuss it with Andrew Neil chairing it. I thought that Coffee Housers might be interested in some details. Alistair Darling is becoming the most powerful critic of Osborne’s policies. Ed Balls’ attacks can be written off as his usual snarling but Darling is more considered and his arguments carry more weight as a result.

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: Boris Johnson’s speech won’t leave Cameron in a cold sweat

From our UK edition

Tory party members were queuing for half an hour to get into the Mayor of London's box office speech this morning. Even Ken Clarke struggled to get a seat in the nosebleed section of the Symphony Hall. It was the perfect hype for Boris' campaign to become the anointed next leader of the Conservative party. But as Boris burrowed his way through his speech, joking and punning, sending the floor into paroxysms of laughter in one very cleverly-written passage about the filmmaking industry in Soho, it became obvious that this wasn't a performance that is going to leave David Cameron in a cold sweat as he prepares his own speech tonight. Boris' speech was actually rather tame. Yes, he's brilliant at jokes. He sent grumpy hacks into fits of laughter.

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: David Cameron moves Tories to the common, not the centre, ground

From our UK edition

It's David Cameron's birthday today, but when James Naughtie suggested on the Today programme that Boris Johnson be sent to a remote country as ambassador, the Prime Minister sounded as though Christmas had come early, too. You could almost hear Cameron's mind whirring as he considered which country might deserve the Mayor of London. As well as answering questions on the man who last night continued his pitch to become the next Tory leader, Cameron was asked where he was taking his party currently.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: Home Affairs Committee member expresses concerns about police commissioners

From our UK edition

I had the pleasure of chairing a fringe event hosted by the Howard League for Penal Reform today on young people and the criminal justice system. The focus for the event was how police and crime commissioners can change the way young offenders are treated. Home Office minister James Brokenshire was very keen to assert that PCCs should be 'ambitious' in their plans for dealing with young people. But Home Affairs Select Committee member James Clappison was a little less optimistic, particularly about whether the government is actually pushing hard enough for these commissioners to be a momentous change to policing.

Fraser Nelson

Conservative Conference: Boris delight

From our UK edition

You could tell this was the Boris Johnson show because people were smiling when they queued, smiling as they listened and smiling as they left. The mood in the conference hall had been completely transformed: it was as if this were comedy night, and we were waiting for the Prince of Political Standup. He was introduced via a Bond-style video, and made an extraordinary entrance which I tried to record on my iPhone. The quality is not Emmy-winning, but it may give some sense of the mood:- Boris thanked everyone for the Olympics, hailed London as the world’s greatest city and then walked his very fine line of support for Cameron. He did not say that Cameron is brilliant, as we all know by now that he doesn’t think that.

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: Robert Halfon admits: ‘I envy socialists’

From our UK edition

The Conservative leadership is just starting to tap in to the idea that the next election will be about the 'strivers', but Robert Halfon and Priti Patel know all too well from their Essex constituencies that what Halfon calls 'white van conservatism' is a key battleground. At last night's Institute of Economic Affairs, the two MPs explained how the Conservatives needed to talk about the cost of living for the ordinary family in order to win in 2015. Halfon outlined how difficult that project was, saying: 'I wish I was a socialist and the reason for that is if you are a socialist, you have a simple message.' He said that even though Conservatives were interested in the same matters as the socialists in terms of tackling inequality, their message was not as easy to explain.

Fraser Nelson

Conservative conference: Tories find themselves on a different wavelength to voters

From our UK edition

BBC Radio Five is broadcast on 909 kHz, but whatever wavelength the Conservative Party is using was not being received by the 200 average voters assembled by Victoria Derbyshire’s meet-the-public programme now held in every party conference. It’s normally the closest that ordinary voters get to the party conferences, inviting frontbenchers to take questions from locals. The results are quite often explosive. Grant Shapps, the new Tory chairman, was the first guest and was inevitably asked about why he ran his business operating under a made-up name. He gave various explanations but the man in the audience wasn’t buying it. 'My name’s Barry Tomes. That’s my real name, by the way,' he started, to much laughter.

James Forsyth

Conservative conference: George Osborne tells Tories he is not for turning

From our UK edition

listen to ‘George Osborne conference speech, 8 Oct 12’ on Audioboo   George Osborne began his conference speech by pointing out that two years into government, Ted Heath had flinched on the economy and lost while Margaret Thatcher had kept on and won. Osborne’s message was, I’m determined to be Thatcher not Heath. The Chancellor’s allies clearly knew this was an important speech for him. Several times, Michael Gove — probably, Osborne’s closest friend in Cabinet — started to clap before the applause line had finished been delivered. One strategic objective of the speech was to try and win back the ‘one nation’ mantra that ‘we’re all in this together’ for the Tories.

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: Patrick McLoughlin wrestles the One Nation mantle from Miliband

From our UK edition

Patrick McLoughlin was the obvious choice to confront Ed Miliband as the Labour leader tries to steal the 'One Nation' mantle from the Conservative party. The former miner opened his speech by remarking that the last time he had addressed conference was 28 years ago. He then invited delegates to watch a video of this speech, delivered when the Transport Secretary was a young man, telling Margaret Thatcher that he was proud to be a 'Tory scab' who crossed picket lines. He then underlined that in the class war that Miliband tried to ignite last week, McLoughlin was the winner: 'I am the son of a miner. I am the grandson of a miner. I was born in Staffordshire and I went to work in the Staffordshire coalfield just up the road from here. And before I go on, I want to make one point clear.

James Forsyth

George Osborne: ‘New taxes on rich people’ to accompany welfare cuts

From our UK edition

Ahead of his conference speech this morning, George Osborne was on the Today Programme. Much of the interview revolved around whether or not the Chancellor would have to abandon his aim of having the national debt falling as a percentage of GDOP by 2015/16. Osborne batted away these questions, stressing that he was waiting for the numbers from the Office of Budget Responsibility. Osborne also said that there would be ‘new taxes on rich people’ to accompany the £10 billion of welfare cuts that he wants to see. Osborne stressed that efforts to make the rich pay more were not simply to ‘appease Liberal Democrats’. One of the dilemmas for the Tories is how much to talk up the economy at this conference.

Isabel Hardman

Conservative conference: George Osborne to pursue £10 billion welfare cuts

From our UK edition

George Osborne is due to speak to the Conservative party conference just before lunch today. What he tells the Symphony Hall at the International Convention Centre may well put his Liberal Democrat coalition partners off their food, as his speech will make clear the Chancellor's determination to cut a further £10 billion from the welfare budget. The Lib Dems appear to have adapted their position somewhat over the summer. In July, I reported senior sources saying that the £10 billion cut was 'just not going to happen'. A little later, the party started making the connection between this new package of cuts and the wealth tax which Nick Clegg flew as a kite, arguing that the books must be balanced on the backs of the richest in society.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Conservative conference: Boris refuses to say if Cameron’s doing a better job than he would

From our UK edition

Speaking to John Pieenar on  Five Live, Boris Johnson said he wished to deal with the leadership speculation, shoot it down with “six inch guns”. He did so by repeatedly refusing to say that David Cameron is doing a better job than he would have done. He was behind Cameron “from the very beginning,” he said – perhaps so, but not the question he was asked. And the fun began:- listen to ‘Boris on leadership on Five Live, 7 Oct 12’ on Audioboo In fact, he said, there is an upside that everyone was talking about his destabilising David Cameron. It is “entirely natural” that “there should be a narrative” because it kept the focus on the Tories and off Ed Miliband.

James Forsyth

Conservative conference: Iain Duncan Smith admits ‘We will have to take more money out of welfare’

From our UK edition

The Tory party loves its former leaders and the queue for Conservative Home’s fringe event with Iain Duncan Smith went round the block. IDS began by explaining why he had chosen to stay in the Welfare job rather than move to Justice in the reshuffle. Though he stressed that there had been no Prime Ministerial demand that he did move but merely what he described as, a ‘genuinely good discussion’ about it. IDS, who is known not to be a big fan of giving free TV licenses and the like to wealthy pensioners, said that any changes to pensioner benefits were ‘off the table’ because of David Cameron’s election pledge. He admitted that this meant that the ‘burden is greater on working age recipients.

Sebastian Payne

Conservative conference: fighting and winning on the marginal front in 2015

From our UK edition

Conservatives need to become more effective at winning marginal seats if they have any hope of gaining a majority at the next general election. But what exactly does the party need to do if they wish to improve on their 2010 performance? This was the question posed at a ConservativeHome fringe event this evening, where several MPs who took marginals in 2010 spoke of their experiences and recommendations for 2015. The successful marginal MPs — Jesse Norman, Nicola Blackwood, Robert Halfon, Richard Harrington and Martin Vickers — have written a pamphlet Lessons from the Marginals that will be published online shortly.