Uk politics

You would think that spending time in America and thereby enjoying a ringside seat as the Republican party leaps off a cliff would give any British conservative cause to give thanks for the Tory party's essential moderation. Not so with dear old Tim Montgomerie, however, who appears to have gone off his rocker and resigned from the party. Now there is something to be said for hacks not being members of any party and in that respect Tim's decision to abandon the Tory ship is a case of better-late-than-never. On the other hand, this is a man who once served as Iain Duncan Smith's chief-of-staff and there is something quixotic about surviving that experience only to abandon ship when the party is actually in government and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.

The Chancellor certainly will have plenty to boast about in his next Budget. Today's figures show an employment rate of 74.1pc, the highest ever recorded in Britain - better than Nigel Lawson's record, better than anyone's. Tax cuts and welfare reform have proved a potent combination. This makes it harder for Osborne to sustain his narrative about a scary "cocktail of risk", part of the general strategy of keeping voters fearful ahead of the EU referendum. With record employment and zero inflation - a striking contrast with the Eurozone - things really could be a lot worse. Against such a backdrop, voters might well wonder what else Britain could achieve by striking out on its own.

Despite what Emma Thompson may say, this 'cake-filled, misery-laden, grey old island' is actually a more than half-decent place to live. Most of the time, anyway. That it remains so is remarkable, given the provocations inflicted upon us by our political overlords. Here are three stories to make you weep. (And as you know, three stories constitute a sodding trend.) First, the Independent reports that the government (in England and Wales) plans to make it illegal for publicly-funded bodies - including councils - to boycott goods produced in areas of the world, or by industries, they deplore.

All Westminster might be agog with the latest shenanigans vis-a-vis the got-to-happen-at-some-point EU referendum but most sentient folk in this blessed land are magnificently uninterested in the matter. Not even this morning's Telegraph splash - 'Attorney General may back Brexit'  - can stir them from their slumber. At best the majors will have asked, over their E&B this morning, 'Who is the Attorney General these days?' North of the border, matters are just as quiet even though another great question remains unsettled. As yet, you see, there is no agreement on the terms of a 'fiscal framework' which will underpin the relationship between the finances of the devolved parliament in Edinburgh and the mother-parliament in Westminster.

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, he’ll have his EU deal by this time next week. But Downing Street still can’t be sure of which Tory heavyweights will be with Cameron come the referendum campaign, and which won’t. Even more than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove is causing Downing Street angst. As I report in The Sun today, Gove is ‘definitely wobbling’ according to one Downing Street source. Downing Street think the chances of him backing Out have increased significantly in the last 10 days or so. Gove himself has been telling people that he won’t make a decision until the deal is done. But those around him are now preparing for Gove coming Out.

Eurosceptics may have only a few days before their ministerial colleagues can join them in campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union. But they’re currently very unhappy at the sort of briefing they’ve been hearing about what might happen to those ministers after the referendum. The official line is that the Prime Minister will not sack anyone because of the position they take on Europe. But noises off suggest that this isn’t quite true: James reported in his Sun column last week that the Prime Minister has taken to telling colleagues ‘I’ve said I would have Outers in my Cabinet after the referendum. But I haven’t said they’ll be the same ones.

What will Jeremy Corbyn lead on today at Prime Minister’s Questions? The Labour leader could ask David Cameron about the junior doctors’ strike, about Europe, or about party funding, given Labour is currently fighting the Trade Union Bill, and given it was the Tory Black and White Ball this week. But almost as interesting as what Corbyn will raise is how he’ll do it. The Labour leader has clearly grown in confidence since he started doing these sessions, and even though he’s no William Hague when it comes to jokes or rhetoric, he is asking good, detailed questions, and is slowly getting better at following up. This means that Cameron is coming to the Chamber looking as though he has spent more time preparing than he did in the autumn.

Ukip’s announcement this afternoon that it will be backing Grassroots Out in its bid for designation as the official ‘Leave’ campaign in the EU referendum has caused consternation in its ranks. The party put out a press release saying that the National Executive Committee, MEPs and its Local Councillors Association are backing GO, which was set up by Peter Bone and is supported by Leave.EU. But I understand that there was no formal NEC meeting about this, and that the last meeting that discussed the designation was a few months ago. When I asked the party how the NEC was consulted, I was told that there was a telephone discussion about the matter this morning. Some were contacted by text message.

Emily Thornberry, the new Shadow Defence Secretary, held a meeting with her fellow Labour MPs this evening. It either went 'swimmingly' or was 'worse than I thought', depending on which MPs you listen to. Based on the accounts of the meeting from MPs who've spoken to Coffee House this evening, it was less the Ian Thorpe sort of swimming, and more Eric the Eel. Naturally, those opposed to a change in Labour policy are not happy, and were unlikely to come out of tonight's meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party feeling very happy unless Thornberry had announced that Jeremy Corbyn has learned to stop worrying and love the nuclear deterrent.