Uk politics

The Scottish government’s own figures demolish the economic case for independence

From our UK edition

What does a barrel of schadenfreude cost these days? That's today's starter for ten. The answer, according to the latest Scottish government figures, appears to be about £15bn. That's the difference between spending in Scotland last year and the revenue raised from Scotland. A deficit of 9.7 percent or, for those keeping score, almost twice the UK's deficit. And, boom, there will be some Unionists tempted to sneer Well, that was a nice little case you had for independence, wasn't it? Such a shame something happened to it.  They will have a point, albeit there is something unseemly about appearing to revel in the collapse of an industry - north sea oil - upon which so many Scottish jobs and families depend.

Do Jeremy Corbyn’s allies really need to worry about a coup?

From our UK edition

For the past few weeks, Labour MPs have been ratcheting up their plotting against Jeremy Corbyn. As I explained here, they have detailed planning sessions for a potential coup in the summer, and have broken their parliamentary party down into groups so that they can develop strategies for persuading each group to accept that the sooner the party gets a new chief, the better. Now, the Corbyn operation is disorganised, but it’s not totally ineffectual, and funnily enough the Labour leader’s allies are quite keen to avoid any attempt to take the Hard Left out of power when it has only just taken over.

EU campaigns aim for women voters

From our UK edition

One of the striking things about the European Union referendum debate so far - apart from how cross everyone is with each other - is how blokey the whole thing has been. There are high-profile women on either side of the debate - Theresa May (who has been rather quiet since her announcement that she was backing ‘In’), Nicky Morgan, Nicola Sturgeon and Caroline Lucas for ‘In’, and Priti Patel, Andrea Leadsom and Theresa Villiers for ‘Out’ - but most of the big interviews and rows about who is backing which side have featured men. Yet women are the key swing voters in this referendum.

How Jeremy Corbyn ‘faced down’ his MP critics: by not answering their questions

From our UK edition

There is no small irony in the fact that Labour MPs were this evening reminded by their colleagues not to brief details of tonight’s parliamentary Labour party meeting before a spokesman for Corbyn went out into the Committee Corridor to, er, brief journalists about what happened at the meeting. The official account is that there was a ‘sea change in the atmosphere’ and that ‘Jeremy faced down his critics’. MPs coming out did say that the meeting wasn’t as shouty as previous encounters, but one moderate suggested that this was because there is a greater sense of resignation and that ‘people just can’t be bothered to get angry any more’.

Nicky Morgan uses departmental questions to attack Vote Leave

From our UK edition

Education Questions in the Commons is a chance for MPs to ask questions about Education - or at least to suck up to ministers by asking them questions about what a good job they are doing. But today Nicky Morgan seemed to be talking about something that wasn't so much tenuously related to her department as completely irrelevant. In her exchanges with Lucy Powell, the Education Secretary managed to end up talking about Europe. She said: ‘Isn’t it typical, Mr Speaker, that on that side of the House, they need to learn the lesson that the Vote Leave campaign needs to learn as well, which is that if you talk about the negatives all of the time, you’re going to find that they are self-fulfilling?

Row about BCC boss shows how careful Cameron must be with his party

From our UK edition

Conservative eurosceptics are trying to hammer Number 10 on the suspension and resignation of British Chambers of Commerce Director General John Longworth over his comments about the EU referendum. David Davis has announced that he is putting in FOI requests to Number 10, Number 11 and the Business Department for details of conversations between ministers, officials or advisers and the BCC. It is unlikely that these requests will yield very much, but Davis is presumably sending them in order to make a statement about Longworth’s resignation and to keep up the pressure on a story that has been running for a few days now.

Why the Budget won’t be a welcome rest from Europe for George Osborne

From our UK edition

After a few weeks of banging on about Europe, Downing Street hopes that there will be more of a domestic focus in Westminster for a little while at least. The Budget is approaching, and George Osborne is already coming to terms with what he can and can’t do. It turns out that now is not the time to be politically radical, as Tory MPs are already in a rather bad mood about Europe, and trying to change the subject won’t really make enough of a difference. So the Chancellor has already had to retreat on reforms he was considering to pension tax relief after it was made clear to him that Conservative MPs would not weather it.

In campaign seizes on Boris Johnson’s Brexit jobs comments

From our UK edition

Boris Johnson’s admission to Andrew Marr that Brexit ‘might’ cost people their jobs has quite inevitably been seized upon by the ‘In’ campaign as a sign that a vote to leave would put people’s livelihoods at risk. The Mayor of London came on the show to make the positive case for Britain leaving the European Union. It was his first big challenge as one of the key figures in the Out campaign, and as James argued yesterday, he needs to match David Cameron’s efficacy in putting his side’s case across. He did give an entertaining interview in which he scrapped with Andrew Marr over who had ‘sovereignty’ over the programme, and he did offer some good examples and illustrations of why he wanted to leave. https://soundcloud.

Weathering the storm: new anti-Scottish BBC plot revealed

From our UK edition

Sometimes trivial matters are actually less trivial than they seem. They can be revealing. Thus Bill Clinton's habit of cheerfully cheating while playing golf was more significant than you might at first think. It told you something - even if only a little something - about him. The great thing about non-trivial, trivial indicators is that you can find them everywhere. The grow, like weeds, in even the most unpromising locations. An ordinary person, for instance, might not reckon the BBC weather map a matter of significant controversy but then an ordinary person probably hasn't thought these matters through. Mercifully, Paul Monaghan - sorry, Dr Paul Monaghan - the SNP MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is not an ordinary person. To wit: https://twitter.

Is it too late for George Osborne to be a Conservative hero?

From our UK edition

The Chancellor has today declared a ceasefire on Middle Britain: he will not go ahead with his planned pensions raid, where he was intending to erode the relief due to upper-rate taxpayers. The Times splashes on the news, and says that "pressing ahead with the plans may well have dented his popularity within the party as a leadership battle approaches." If this was his motive, it was not without foundation: the tax credits debacle, his Google gaffe and, most recently, his positioning himself as a EU cheerleader has not endeared him to the Tory members who will decide who succeeds David Cameron. The bookmakers show his odds plunging (below) and have today cut his odds on being sacked by Christmas to 6-1. Osborne has recovered before (see above graph) and can recover again.

Can Boris do as effective a job for Out as Cameron is doing for In?

From our UK edition

Pro-Brexit Tory Cabinet Minister would, I suspect, not be complaining about the government’s referendum campaign tactics if they didn’t fear that they were effective. Whatever you think about how he has done it, David Cameron has driven the risks of leaving the EU up the agenda this week. He has pushed the Out campaign onto the back foot. This is what makes Boris Johnson’s appearance on Marr tomorrow morning so important, I argue in my Sun column this week. Out need Boris to drive their agenda as successfully as Cameron is pushing IN’s. The interview is a big moment for Boris too.

Boris tries to drag David Cameron back to talking about his EU deal

From our UK edition

Boris Johnson’s attack on David Cameron’s EU deal as achieving ‘no real change’ is part of the very high-profile campaign that the senior Tories campaigning for Brexit are waging. They have covered the media over the past week with interviews, quotes and rebuttals to every claim that the Prime Minister and his allies have offered. What is interesting about Boris’ comments is that he is trying to take the debate back to the question of whether Cameron actually got anything in the renegotiation. The Prime Minister has rather pointedly moved on from talking about that, focusing now on the dangers posed by a ‘leap into the dark’, which requires a debate about Britain’s overall membership, rather than the changes he has secured.

IDS’ furious attack on the ‘In’ campaign threatens Tory unity post-referendum

From our UK edition

Iain Duncan Smith’s attack on the ‘In’ campaign today doesn’t just show us how febrile the referendum campaign is going to be for the next few months. It also shows us that ministers like the Work and Pensions Secretary are so peeved with the way the Prime Minister and others are conducting the campaign that they want to threaten Tory party unity after the referendum, whatever the result. IDS writes in the Mail today: ‘The acrimonious manner in which all this has been conducted is troubling, and will I fear have consequences long beyond June 23. After all, such desperate and unsubstantiated claims are now being made that they begin to damage the very integrity of those who make them in the eyes of the public.

Cameron plays the Jungle drums again

From our UK edition

This is from tonight's Evening Blend email, a free round-up and analysis of the day's political events. Subscribe here. Today in brief François Hollande warned that there would be ‘consequences’ for the British-French border deal that keeps migrants at Calais. Boris Johnson responded to the warnings that Brexit could lead to a ‘Jungle’ on UK soil with ‘Donnez-moi un break’. Jeremy Corbyn rejected the ‘failed economic orthodoxy’ espoused by the previous Labour government and called for a ‘new settlement with the corporate sector’. Caroline Lucas attacked Labour for its ‘silence’ in the EU referendum. Sajid Javid said he was still a ‘Brussels basher’ despite backing the campaign to stay in.

Labour shadow ministers told to emulate Will Smith in EU campaign

From our UK edition

Even if Jeremy Corbyn isn’t making waves in Labour’s EU campaign, the rest of the party is trying to knuckle down and get on with what is essentially an enthusiastic get out the vote operation. The party knows that the bulk of its voters are in favour of Britain staying in the European Union, and that it just needs to enthuse them enough to bother to vote - which is the problem I set out in this earlier post. If Corbyn can’t do the enthusing, then other frontbenchers need to do it in his stead.

Labour MPs unnerved by party’s low-key referendum campaign

From our UK edition

Caroline Lucas is speaking for a number of Labour MPs with her warning about the weakness of the Labour party in the EU referendum debate. They are worried that their party is not going to be able to deliver the voters needed to keep Britain in the European Union. ‘Labour voters will not be turned out by a load of Tories,’ says one MP, though when Labourites start moaning about a lack of leadership from Jeremy Corbyn on the Labour for In side of things, they then end up accepting that actually a very involved Labour leader might not be a good thing, either, given his lack of appeal to those Labour voters.

Head of the IN campaign says wages will go up if we leave the EU

From our UK edition

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/donaldtrumpsangryamerica/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth, Fraser Nelson & Isabel Hardman discuss the opening skirmishes of the EU referendum campaign" startat=540] Listen [/audioplayer] Stuart Rose will have to be added to the long list of British businessmen who have struggled to make the transition to politics. Rose, the Chairman of Britain in Europe, didn’t get off to the best of starts in this campaign when he told The Times that ‘“Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe in the first five years, probably. There will be absolutely no change’ a quote that was seized upon by the Out campaign who said it disproved all the dire warnings about the immediate consequences of leaving.

Tory MPs to push ministers further on snooping bill

From our UK edition

Tory MPs believe they have sufficient numbers of would-be rebels to be able to amend the government’s Investigatory Powers Bill, which was published yesterday. Coffee House understands that there are already around 10 Tory MPs who would be happy to join forces with Labour to change key sections of the legislation on the authorisation of interception warrants, and on the level of detail on someone's internet history that is available to intelligence services and the police. David Davis, the Tory MP who tends to lead the charge on civil liberties matters, is concerned that a number of the points set out by the joint committee that scrutinised the Bill when it was in draft form have still not been addressed now that it has been published.

Sadiq Khan, please stop playing the Muslim card

From our UK edition

Sadiq Khan, I’m sure you and your supporters think you’re being super right-on when you say that it would send a ‘phenomenal message’ to the world if Londoners were to elect their first-ever Muslim mayor in May. But actually you’re playing an incredibly dangerous game. You’re Islamifying what ought to be a straight political contest. You’re turning the vote over who should run London into a test of Londoners’ tolerance of Islam. You’re asking voters to prove they aren’t prejudiced, when all they should be doing is expressing a political preference. Stop it. The Khan camp has been playing the Muslim card from the get-go. Last year, Khan talked up the ‘phenomenal’ symbolism of London having a Muslim mayor.

Trade comes before trade agreements (but the ‘in’ campaign don’t think so)

From our UK edition

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/donaldtrumpsangryamerica/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth, Fraser Nelson & Isabel Hardman discuss the opening skirmishes of the EU referendum campaign" startat=540] Listen [/audioplayer] The government, or at least David Cameron’s bit of it, seems to think that trade is something that takes place because of a trade agreement. The order is the other way round. People trade, and have done for several thousand years, because it is to their mutual advantage. After a bit, governments come along and try to direct and often impede it, but in the modern world of instant communications, ready transfers of money and container shipping, this has become blessedly difficult.