Ron de santis

Are Haitian refugees headed to the US?

Haiti is battling an insurgency, with gangs terrorizing the citizenry and international actors fearing the beginning of a refugee crisis. You could already label the situation a low-scale civil war, but things are set to get worse, as the leading gang leader Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier continues to mobilize for regime change. The conflict has gotten so out of control that Haitian prime minister Ariel Henry, who the Biden administration energetically backed following the assassination of former prime minister Jovenel Moïse in 2021, announced early Tuesday that he would resign following the creation of a transitional presidential council.

Haley is out. How can Trump pick up her voters?

In the end, the lesson of Nikki Haley's run is that Donald Trump defeated every wing of the Republican Party along the way to becoming its champion. In 2016, he beat the avatar of Tea Party constitutional populism in Ted Cruz. In 2024, he bested the reformist culture war version of himself in Ron DeSantis, and then dispatched the post-George W. Bush-era form of suburbanite compassionate conservatism in Haley, who speaks in a combination of defense-industry jargon and Bible verses. He even brought the older era of Chamber of Commerce Federalist Society Reaganite to heel, with Mitch McConnell endorsing him today. Trump's dominance over the GOP is total. The problem Trump has, of course, is that he can't win just with that authoritative GOP support.

nikki haley

Is there an election going on?

Charleston, South Carolina Welcome to Thunderdome, where the past three days in South Carolina have felt bizarre, for several reasons. A dominant incumbent is facing his solo challenger without any interest in demolishing her efforts in the primary contest. The atmosphere at Donald Trump’s Greenville town hall was one of grim resolve, far from the enthusiasms of 2020. And for the upstart Nikki Haley campaign, her events have been popular and packed with fans, but all operating from an assumption that she will inevitably lose. This is an incredibly odd election — where South Carolina was decisive in 2020, 2016 and 2008, now it feels like an afterthought.

Searching for the energy at the New Hampshire primary

Manchester, New Hampshire “OK, who here is not a voter in New Hampshire?” asked Marianne Williamson as she took the microphone. Almost everyone in the small, quarter-full auditorium at Manchester Community College raised a hand. “Well, that’s depressing,” said Marianne. Williamson carries herself with a certain grandiosity. She has that quasi-aristocratic bearing that comes from decades of being attractive, famous, well-off and radical. In 2024, she’s casting herself as the presidential candidate for despairing Bernie Sanders supporters. As she did in 2020, she presents her agenda as the spiritual alternative to politics as normal. “Not every rich person in America is a greedy bastard,” she says. “Not every poor person is a noble and pure soul.

New Hampshire

Who’s afraid of Nikki Haley?

Welcome to Thunderdome, fresh from New Hampshire, tired as all get-out and ready to rumble on to South Carolina and its welcoming warmth and palmetto-framed cobblestone streets, as opposed to the watery coffee and stained fingers of the Northeast. The strangest thing seems to be happening, though: with Nikki Haley’s insistence on staying in the race, and the apparent flood of donations she’s received since overperforming against Donald Trump, the people around the former president are taking on a newly aggressive tone — even to the point of trying to anoint him the nominee before anyone else votes!

The 2024 campaign cage fight

The modern political observer has moved on from the idea that “all politics is local.” In our interconnected world, politics now comes down to sophisticated data analytics, nationwide donor networks and money that’s used to drive the narratives that take hold on 24/7 cable news or social media. “All politics is local” is the type of Rockwell-esque trope that wasn’t necessarily true even when the phrase debuted in 1932, let alone when former House speaker Tip O’Neill made it popular. But last year showed us that even old clichés are subject to a gritty reboot.

2024
ron desantis

DeSantis breaks the Trump truce

Although they called a ceasefire on Sunday, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are already back in the trenches. Just one day after dropping out of the Republican primary and endorsing Trump, DeSantis announced his intention to block a Florida House bill that would give financial support to the former president’s legal woes. So much for Republican unity... The “Freedom Fighters Fund,” which was introduced by Florida state senator Ileana Garcia on January 5, would have provided up to $5 million for Floridian presidential candidates facing legal actions. The bill didn’t name anyone in particular, but Cockburn can only think of one Sunshine State resident currently running for president and embroiled in a lawsuit — four actually.

ron desantis influencers

Are DeSantis’s influencers following him onto the Trump train?

Ron DeSantis didn’t just drop out of the 2024 presidential race this Sunday — he also endorsed former president Donald Trump, the opponent who had bested him in Iowa. That pragmatic act made sense for him in terms of self-preservation, but was sure to frustrate some of his early supporters and “influencers,” who had been engaged in a lengthy online war with Trumpworld for months. Where will they turn now that the GOP primary is a two-horse race? "My view on every election has always been to vote for the best available candidate,” ex-Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis told The Spectator. Now that DeSantis is out, she is not sure if that candidate will be on the Republican ticket. “At this point, I am considering third-party options, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

On the ground at the New Hampshire primary

New Hampshire votes tomorrow in the 2024 presidential primaries — and it seems no one is expecting an upset. The Spectator team dispatched to Manchester and has observed a significantly quieter scene than that of the 2020 Democratic primary contest. News coverage is scanter than expected, the bars and restaurants are empty and there is plenty of parking, even as temperatures creeped above freezing today.The only quasi-surprise so far is that Florida governor Ron DeSantis has suspended his campaign already, although that seemed more a question of when not if, considering his poor showing in Iowa after spending more than $100 million campaigning.

ron desantis

How Ron DeSantis crashed and burned

“Many are called, but few are chosen.” That verse from Matthew (22:14) certainly applies to presidential aspirants. The latest to be called but not chosen is Ron DeSantis, who ended his campaign Sunday. Technically, he “suspended” the campaign, but that was simply to comply with campaign finance laws. In practice, the run is over.  The campaign was a brief, unsuccessful effort by a candidate who began with high promise, based on his success as Florida governor. He won that office, just barely, in 2018 after a decisive endorsement from Donald Trump. He was reelected overwhelmingly in 2022 against a well-regarded Democratic opponent.

The House GOP’s circular firing squad

The smallest-ever House Republican majority is squabbling once again, and the irony is that much of the frustration is focused on a tiny group of Republicans who tanked what they claimed to want last year.The usual gang of safe-district Republicans, Republicans running for higher office and anti-team players are agitating to shut down the border or shut down the government, even though many of them voted against a bill last year that would have implemented meaningful border security provisions and cut spending — even with divided government. Ironically, the then-chair of the Freedom Caucus, Scott Perry, negotiated this deal — which included the entirety of the House GOP’s border security package with the exception of strengthening the E-Verify immigration system.

Is Nikki Haley meeting more journalists than voters?

Cockburn has left the snow-dusted streets of the Capitol to see even more of the white stuff up in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday’s primary. It was a balmy 17 degrees this morning, tanning weather compared to the previous contest in Iowa. And the question on everyone’s lips up here: is Nikki Haley meeting more journalists than voters?  Cockburn found a strange scene as he pulled up at Robie’s Country Store in Hooksett Thursday: sure enough, there Haley was, stood outside giving a TV interview alongside her biggest endorser, Governor Chris Sununu, ten minutes ahead of the scheduled start time. After finding parking, Cockburn attempted to enter the store, as Haley and Sununu had just done.

Will New Hampshire make or break Nikki Haley?

Welcome to Thunderdome, where fresh off his thirty-point win in Iowa, former president Donald Trump is now counting on New Hampshire to deliver the killing blow to the nascent Nikki Haley boomlet. Haley underperformed polling expectations in Iowa — in part because of the frigid weather, which saw the lowest turnout in a quarter century for the caucuses. New Hampshire now takes on new importance for her, keeping the narrative going that she’s the better, stronger choice for a showdown with her former boss. With the backing of Republican governor Chris Sununu, an influx of cash from the donor class and a DeSantis campaign that is largely focused southward, Haley will have her best shot at pulling out an unlikely upset.

How Trump captured his party

Vintage news outlets, with lots of time to kill and space to fill, are desperately trying to say the Republican primary contest is still open. It’s not. Ron DeSantis’s campaign is already filled with embalming fluid. True, he finished second in Iowa, but that was his most favorable terrain, and he failed to win outright. DeSantis’s basic strategy was to draw away Trump voters by taking strong, socially conservative positions, such as banning abortions after six weeks in Florida. It didn’t convince primary voters. That spells the end for DeSantis nationally because it failed in a state where he spent a lot of time and money and where Republicans are very conservative. To invert the song, "New York, New York," if he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere.

Trump pushes GOP consolidation post-Iowa

It’s 2016 all over again, following a frozen Iowa caucus where Donald Trump told Republicans to get on the Trump Train... before it’s too late.Trump’s top two rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, are both staying in the race, whereas Vivek Ramaswamy, who spent much of his campaign running as Trump’s understudy, dropped out and endorsed Trump.It’s hard to think of a better outcome for the former president; Alex Titus, an advisor to Trump’s former super PAC, called Iowa “a massive victory for Donald Trump,” and added that “the only ones surprised by the results are in the consultant class.” Trump narrowly eclipsed the 50 percent threshold many viewed as critical to serving as a strong showing; Haley and DeSantis virtually tied for second at around 20 percent each.

donald trump

The top ten worst modern presidential campaigns, ranked

The decline and fall of the Ron DeSantis campaign has led several people within the commentariat — which these days means anyone online with the ability to type a thought and hit send in even a semi-coherent way, despite lack of experience, background or the skill to even qualify as a volunteer — to weigh in on how awful, how terrible, how wasteful has been the DeSantis effort to run for the presidency. The effect is amusing, in part because it has led outright idiots to claim that if only DeSantis had refrained from criticizing Donald Trump at all, or if only he had criticized Donald Trump more, he would have succeeded.

Can anti-Trump conservatives slink back to MAGA?

Former president Donald Trump delivered a resounding 30-point victory in the Iowa Caucuses Monday night and, according to polls, seems likely to take New Hampshire as well. This is with the exception of one poll released Tuesday that shows Nikki Haley tied with Trump at 40 percent, but it has a sample size of only 600 voters and shows Haley winning with men and Trump winning with women. Seems unlikely. Provided Haley is unable to ride her establishment donor wave to victory in New Hampshire, then, the race will be all Trump by South Carolina. Florida governor Ron DeSantis’s campaign proved to be a huge disappointment; as strategist Ryan Girdusky helpfully laid out in a recounting of his meetings with Team DeSantis over the past year.

ron desantis anti-trump conservatives
ron desantis

What I told Ron DeSantis and his team about their campaign

Over the last few weeks, about half a dozen reporters told me they were getting ready to write the obituary on DeSantis’s campaign and wanted to include comments I made in off-the-record meetings. I had no intention of ever sharing these comments with the media, but seeing how they would come out anyway, I felt it necessary to get the story straight from my mouth.  For months, I warned Governor DeSantis and his team about their campaign strategy; everything from the super PAC to his message seemed wrong, and I made it known. So here’s what happened. On May 10, I boarded a Delta Airlines flight to Tallahassee to meet the governor, his wife and his campaign team.

iowa

Iowa keeps things boring

The back-to-back nature of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests has in the past fulfilled an important function for Republicans as they choose their presidential nominee: they've made clear who the top-tier candidates are for the job, and in several key points, dramatically changed the race. This time around, Iowa failed to do so — and New Hampshire may follow suit.  For Donald Trump, the caucus win went as expected, with a slim majority of the overall vote, in what looks to be the lowest turnout competitive Iowa caucus in a quarter century.

Trump trounces everyone in Iowa

Numbers are mysterious things. According to orthodox Roman Catholicism, there are instances in which 3 = 1. You might get by with that formula in your theology seminar. Don’t try it in your arithmetic class. Unraveling the reason why both might be right would take me far afield. But since numbers are in the air tonight — the night of the Big Deal Iowa Caucus Race — I thought I would remind you that numbers, and the reality behind them, can be mysterious. In the run up to the Caucus, lots of pundits put on their best owlish eyeglasses and explained that even though Iowa had only forty delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, it was nevertheless important because it was the first contest in the primary season.

iowa