Republican primaries 2024

"Negative partisanship” is a notorious feature of American politics. In presidential elections especially, voters don’t vote for the party and candidate they like; they vote against the party and candidate they fear. This is one reason third-party politics is a waste of time. If voters want to prevent the worst outcome, they will always choose the most viable alternative over the best alternative. For Joe Biden in 2020, it was enough that he wasn’t Donald Trump. For Trump in 2016, it was enough that he wasn’t Hillary Clinton. Next year, we’ll find out whether the voting public now views Biden as more like Clinton or still considers him better than Trump.

This past weekend Tucker Carlson gave the keynote address at the Heritage Foundation’s Fiftieth Anniversary Summit and Gala. His speech wasn’t about his show on Fox, or the media or the industry itself. It was steeped in the political and cultural themes the country is headed for ahead of the 2024 election.   Carlson aptly set the table of topics for politicians to pick up, from the current debate around gender and Critical Race Theory. He highlighted key issues where conservative leaders should be responding, such as Greg Abbott recently in Texas as he works to pardon Daniel Perry for his role in the shooting of a BLM protester.   Tucker has served as a sort of kingmaker for American conservatives and Republican politicians in recent years.

Joe Biden is considering making his re-election announcement as early as Tuesday.  After months of teasing his inevitable run with awkward comments like telling Al Roker he will be pushing out Easter eggs, it would seem the moment is upon us.   So what does this mean for 2024?   Well, there’s still a long way to go. And as 2016 showed us, primaries make for plenty of surprises. Still, even with the unknowns, there’s a good chance that we end up with a 2020 re-rerun: former president Donald J. Trump versus President Joseph R. Biden. Because that worked out so well for everybody last time!  There are plenty of problems currently plaguing the country, from inflation to train derailments.

In the two months since the launch of the 2024 Thunderdome for the Republican nomination, the field has turned out to be somewhat smaller than anticipated. As headline generation goes, no one can match former president Donald Trump, who has managed to get indicted on ludicrous charges in New York City, giving him a big boost from loyalists in his coalition. But there are signs that this boomlet is fading, and while Trump remains firmly in the lead, his constant potshots at Ron DeSantis have done virtually nothing to dint the popularity of the Florida governor.  Outside of a DeSantis event in Washington on Tuesday, planted protesters held up pre-printed signs accusing DeSantis of being afraid of books and drag queens and declaring "Partied With His Students #RealGroomer.

South Carolina Tim Scott is set to announce his bid for the presidency as soon as this week, Cockburn has heard from three sources. Scott has been doing the pre-announcement ritual of touring early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire — as well as his home state of South Carolina. Per one of Cockburn's sources, Scott will announce at an event in South Carolina. No surprises there. Scott is set to throw his hat in the ring after former president Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury, and as Florida governor Ron DeSantis, thought to be the party’s top alternative to Trump, falters in the polls. DeSantis himself is also yet to announce.

The 2024 presidential election is heating up and with it comes the typical scramble of political consultants trying to hitch wagons to the winning campaign. The hottest gossip right now surrounds the Never Back Down PAC, which will support Florida governor Ron DeSantis in the event of a presidential run and has recently gobbled up some prominent Trump 2020 alumni. One of the key players in any Republican election is Jeff Roe, the head of Axiom Strategies and a top consultant to Senator Ted Cruz during the 2016 election. Axiom, which is one of the three major GOP consulting firms alongside Majority Strategies and Arena, played a major role in Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin's upset over Terry McAuliffe in 2021.

Cockburn was in Waco, Texas, this weekend, covering the first official rally of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign. He nearly passed out from both physical and political exhaustion. Despite using his press pass to bypass the line, Cockburn's populist streak led him to refrain from joining the other hacks ensconced on the press dais. After having his vape confiscated by the TSA, he chose instead to meander through the crowd of cranky boomers murmuring about the lack of water amid the sweltering Texas heat, which approached ninety degrees on the tarmac of the Waco Regional Airport. Cockburn could relate.

To this point in the early days of the Republican primary, all the major potshots have been coming from just one candidate, directed at just one other: Donald Trump taking aim repeatedly at Ron DeSantis. Much of the media conversation about this has focused on DeSantis's unwillingness to respond to any of these attacks: a deliberate choice that hasn't lowered the temperature or frequency of Trump's barbs, which now include comparing the Florida conservative to, gasp, Mitt Romney. But consider the possibility that at this moment, both men are making a political mistake. For DeSantis, the risks of non-response are that Trump defines him before he defines himself. Republican primary voters generally know who Ron DeSantis is and have an overwhelmingly positive view of him.

The game's afoot: MAGA Inc., a Donald Trump-associated super PAC, has lodged a formal complaint to the Florida Commission on Ethics against Ron DeSantis. The complaint alleges that the Florida governor is in breach of ethics laws by running for president without officially declaring. Cockburn detects a whiff of hypocrisy here: for a man who is always claiming to be the victim of legal warfare, Trump seems to be as willing as anyone to wield the sword of the law. The complaint argues that DeSantis is “leveraging his elected office and breaching his associated duties in a coordinated effort to develop his national profile, enrich himself and his political allies and influence the national electorate.

Psychologists and self-help gurus agree: it’s the little things that bring a smile to one’s lips and impart savor to life. A case in point was just vouchsafed this weary world by Paul Ryan, former important person. An interviewer for ABC recently sat down with Mr. Clean and asked him whether he would be going to the 2024 Republican National Convention, which is to be held in Milwaukee in Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. “Where will you be?” the host asked. “It depends on who the nominee is,” Ryan replied. “I’ll be here if it’s not named somebody Trump.” Ooo, that stung, Paul! “It’s,” “somebody Trump.” Slash and burn, what? I have some bad news. That “somebody” might very well be Donald Trump.