Republican party

What’s the one thing that every pundit and certified member of the Fourth Estate knows? Why, it’s that MAGA is finished.  How many stories have we been treated to about “the fracturing of MAGA?” NPR knows it, Politico intuited it, Salon bet on it and the New Republic salivated over it. “Trump’s MAGA Base Splits Dramatically,” that anti-Trump orifice recently crowed, “New Poll Shows Donald Trump’s support continues to drop.” Then of course there is the New York Times, which has predicted and rejoiced in the death of MAGA again and again. That is – that was – the narrative. What is the reality? Yesterday’s primaries tell a very different, in fact a contradictory story.

Are congressional Republicans absolutely determined to forfeit this November’s midterm elections? It sure looks that way. The GOP would hardly be acting any differently if it were secretly run by its enemies. The election-security provisions of the SAVE Act enjoy overwhelming popular support. According to CBS/YouGov polling, requiring photo ID to vote is literally an 80-20 issue, commanding the support of four out of five voters. Yet the Republican Senate, with a 53-47 majority, is struggling to pass the law. Yes, the filibuster gives Chuck Schumer a powerful weapon to use against the GOP, but there are ways around that – ways the GOP chooses not to take. Democrats are killing the bill without even having to be held accountable for voting against it.

Readers may disagree with the cover line of this issue. Pronouncing “the end of Trumpism” feels somewhat similar to declaring “the end of history” – a provocative, albeit less grandiose, statement that risks being mocked in the near future. We should start by saying we hope that we are wrong. Trumpism, as this magazine understands it, has been a boon to America. As Christopher Caldwell argues, the rise of Donald Trump was a healthy democratic response to a fetid political system. On many fronts, the Trump administration, now in its second and more dynamic term, has made great progress. It has fought illegal immigration with vigor.

The celebrity circles surrounding the second Trump administration are pretty thin. Sylvester Stallone, Jon Voight, Adam Sandler’s close friend Rob Schneider and a scant few others support the President in ways loud and quiet. But other than pop star Nicki Minaj, whose residence in Trumpistan has caused a lot of head-scratching, no entertainment celebrity occupies a more prominent place in the MAGA firmament than the musician Robert Ritchie, better known to the world as Kid Rock. “I call him Bob,” Trump once said. Kid Rock, the second most famous white rapper from Detroit, has long been in Trump’s social circles. He was a guest at Mar-a-Lago before either he or Trump became political figures.

“First and foremost, I think Zohran and I are two good-looking guys in our thirties.” James Fishback, the controversial Republican running for governor of Florida, tells me that it is “not politically wise” to acknowledge his similarities with New York’s new mayor – but he can’t help himself. Both he and Zohran Mamdani are from privileged families, have taken on their own parties, have harnessed youth activism, are big on social media and have courted the same voters on the same issue: the rising cost of living. And, like 34-year-old Mamdani, at this stage of his campaign, Fishback, 31, needs a boost in the polls. Currently he is polling between 5 and 23 percent, while congressman Byron Donalds leads the Republican primary pack at 37 to 47 percent.

“We gotta win the midterms,” President Donald Trump told the crowd in Iowa at the end of last month. “I’m here because we’re starting the campaign to win the midterms. That means Senate and it means House.” Trump is, by all accounts, obsessed with the upcoming elections in November. Having been distracted by various foreign dramas, and seeing his approval ratings dip, the President aims to pivot back to a domestic mission in 2026. If the Democrats capture the House, Trump will face noisy congressional battles and possibly impeachment Trump understands the stakes, hence choosing Iowa, the traditional starting place for presidential primaries, to launch this campaign. The final two years of his presidency hinge on the outcome of these elections.

The Republican establishment is on the verge of extinction. Donald Trump’s first term wasn’t enough to kill it off: Trump came into office in 2017 with establishment figures such as Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan leading the party in Congress, and Trump’s own vice president, Mike Pence, had been chosen for that role as a reassurance to the old guard. Trump made some efforts to staff his administration with outsiders, but the likes of Steve Bannon or the ill-fated Rex Tillerson were heavily outnumbered by Republicans who would have been just as happy – or a great deal happier – to serve in another Bush administration.  This time, though, things are very different.

“The old ways of doing business just aren’t cutting it” for the Democratic party, the New York Times wrote. Democrats are acting like a bloated, out-of-touch corporation that has no idea why it’s bleeding customers. The Times article talks at length about several PACs, activist groups and nonprofits that are trying to inject fresh ideas into the Democratic machine. These ideas add up to: knocking on doors and creating targeted digital ads. One functionary from a group called Priorities USA says that he wants the group to function “more like a venture capital firm, making a number of smaller bets on a wide range of initiatives and funding only the best performers – and using the incubation process as a way to learn about what works and doesn’t.

Washington, DC What’s the best way to celebrate America’s birthday? For President Trump, it was a swift round of golf at his course in Sterling, Virginia, followed by a victory lap to sign his “One Big, Beautiful Bill” on the South Lawn of the White House. Two B-2 bombers, flanked by F-22 Raptors flew over the White House as the US Marine band played “The Star-Spangled Banner.” Military men in short-sleeved shirts – their wives in flowery sundresses – were dotted on white chairs around gingham-clad tables. It was a quintessentially American affair. “That is some sight,” said Trump, of what he described as a “big, beautiful plane,” after he walked up to the shaded podium on the South Portico with his First Lady.

President Donald Trump is seeing a handful of House Republicans deal what he hopes is a temporary setback to his "Big, Beautiful Bill." Despite Trump’s repeated requests that House Republicans pass the gigantic reconciliation bill — which includes the codification of several of Trump’s executive orders, along with larger-than-expected spending cuts targeting across the board expenditures and a $4 trillion debt limit increase — several Republicans in the House tanked a critical vote in the Budget Committee, forcing Republicans to consider what comes next. While the specifics are uncertain, Republicans lack a plan B if they fail to pass some version of the bill. “It has to pass,” Congressman Glenn Grothman, a Budget Committee member, said.

Is Donald Trump forsaking four more years? In an interview today with NBC’s Kristen Welker, Trump indicated that while his MAGA faithful may be hawking hats in support of a 2028 run, he’s not keen on the idea. “I’ll be an eight-year president,” he said. “I’ll be a two-term president. I always thought that was very important.” His current term, he added, was more than adequate to accomplish something “really spectacular.” The interest that Trump’s declaration of non-intention is receiving offers a reminder that he stirs up as much news with what he doesn’t do as with what he does.  The only president to smash the barrier was, of course, Franklin D.

It's no mystery how Democrats plan to attack Republicans over the coming year and a half: tie them to Elon Musk like a billionaire-sized string of dynamite. They're doing it already, and intend to ramp it up to 11. Yet Republicans don't seem to have an answer for how to deal with it – and saying "Musk isn't on the ballot, I am" isn't an answer.There was a significant portion of time where Republicans struggled to figure out how to defend Donald Trump, but they've solved that problem. Trump's poll numbers and popularity are now solid as a mountain – people love him or they hate him, and moving those numbers is very difficult, especially when there are dedicated well-funded ad campaigns promoting what he's doing on a daily basis.

Palm Beach, Florida Casey DeSantis is running for Florida governor. That is simply a matter of accepted knowledge for the West Palm Beach denizens gathered at the Flagler Museum on a breezy evening among the palm trees. But it's still astonishing to see how quickly she adapts to the role and inhabits it in a bright pink pantsuit. The far more telegenic half of the gubernatorial team, who benefits from a Myers-Briggs score that begins with "E" instead of "I," delivered a speech last week that put a strong emphasis on "we" at every juncture — what "we" accomplished for Florida, how "we" pushed back against Joe Biden's foolishness and how close "we" believe the loss of Florida's model could be should Democrats prevail in the state her husband helped turn bright flaming red.

With Donald Trump moving so rapidly on so many fronts, it is hard to grasp the big picture. What are his overriding goals, politically and electorally? What has he already accomplished?  Here is a summary in case you are keeping score. Trump has done more in a few weeks than any president in history. He took office with a coherent, detailed program and control of Congress (though a very narrow majority in the House). He is acting swiftly before his political capital dissipates.  Trump hopes to sustain his winning electoral coalition beyond his time in office. That’s why he chose a young populist, J.D. Vance, as his vice president and presumptive successor.

Four days away from inauguration, the Senate is moving quickly with confirmation hearings for President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet. The saga began with defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth’s contentious hearing Tuesday and quickly moved to half-a-dozen other hearings the next day, including that of secretary of state nominee, Senator Marco Rubio.  This morning, Congress continued with more hearings for top Trump nominees, including one with treasury secretary pick Scott Bessent, as well as with former representative Lee Zeldin, former governor Doug Burgum and former NFL player Scott Turner — who were nominated to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Interior and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, respectively.