RealClearPolitics

Friday

Cockburn

Libbing out with Alan Dershowitz at the ‘Sammies’

Usually, the panel section of a black-tie awards dinner is the least lively part of the evening. Honorees praise and agree with each other, soundtracked by the clinks of forks as guests cautiously push salad around their plates. Not so at RealClear’s third Samizdat Awards, AKA the Sammies, which took place at the Breakers in Palm Beach Wednesday. Things started off sedately, with Turning Point USA’s Andrew Kolvet talking about Charlie Kirk, on whose behalf he received the Samizdat Prize. Next, Irish comedy writer Graham Linehan discussed the repercussions he’d faced in Britain for his trans-critical views, for which he garnered sympathy from the room’s guests, who largely trended right-of-center. Then it was Alan Dershowitz’s turn.

sammies dershowitz

Tuesday

Cockburn

Can we get RealClear?

RealClearPolitics, the polling data aggregator, is undergoing a round of cuts. In a letter to staff last Wednesday, seen by Cockburn, publisher David DesRosiers writes: “Good people, our people, and the families that they serve will be impacted. We are sorry.” While cuts to media are nothing new given the challenging business environment, the reasoning behind RealClear’s reductions is somewhat unusual. “We find ourselves under attack from a shadowy new threat – this time from the Right,” writes DesRosiers. “A cabal of so-called conservatives is now attempting to stamp out independent voices. They have persuaded some of our previous benefactors who supported RealClearFoundation while it benefited them to withdraw philanthropic support.

realclear

Friday

Cockburn

DEI still rules the Dems

While some Fortune 500 companies are dropping DEI programs like hot cakes, many in the Democratic Party are not so eager. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, who was almost the official face of the House Democrats’ messaging, has been taking her message that “mediocre white boys” are the ones complaining about DEI to the airwaves of cable news.Now the Democrats’ Senate committee is rolling out a job application form with an optional DEI section where applicants can pick between five sexualities and five genders, with options including “trans* woman / Transfeminine” and “pansexual.” This form was one of the first actions that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s (DSCC) new chief diversity and inclusion officer.

dei

Friday

Roger Kimball

Joe Biden and the war on truth

I had been told that Joe Biden, the president of the United States, would be delivering the 2024 State of the Union Address on Thursday, March 7. As it happened, he didn’t. Instead, he indulged in a surreal, medically enhanced species of primal scream therapy. This was laced with liberal dollops of what Freudians call “projection,” accusing his political opponents of stifling democracy when everyone outside the orbit of the state propaganda machine knows that the surveillance apparatus over which Biden presides — ex officio, at least — is a self-perpetuating machine for extinguishing democracy and its prime nutrient, frank commitment to the truth.

joe biden samizdat

Tuesday

Cockburn

In defense of RealClearPolitics

Find a comfortable spot on the carpet, children, the New York Times has a lesson for you all about how to curate editorial content. While fishing through his neighbor's recycling this morning, Cockburn was amused to see, on page A15 of the Times, a piece about his favorite poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics. What on earth could the site have done to earn the scrutiny of the Gray Lady? Brace yourself, dear reader: you may find parts of the report unsettling: '...RealClearPolitics and its affiliated websites have taken a rightward, aggressively pro-Trump turn over the last four years as donations to its affiliated nonprofit have soared.' Dear heavens! Rightward and aggressively pro-Trump?

realclearpolitics

Tuesday

Matt Mayer

My final election prediction: Trump 305 to Biden 233

I’m doubling down. In 2016, against virtually all of the polling data and sophisticated analysis, I predicted Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton 280 to 258. To the shock of the world, he ended up winning 304 to 277. Four years later, the world finds itself again facing an American presidential election in which the vast majority of polling data and prognosticators indicate a Joe Biden win by a fairly solid majority. At last check, the polling aggregator at RealClearPolitics puts Biden ahead nationally 51 percent to 44.3 percent and in top battleground states 48.9 percent to 46 percent, which would give Biden a 335 to 203 electoral victory. The latest betting odds show Biden favored 64.3 percent to 34.8 percent.

prediction

Monday

Bill Scher

Why Joe Biden will win tomorrow

Joe Biden is going to win. I have been wrong before. I will be wrong again. And maybe I’m wrong today. But we do not have any significant data to suggest Donald Trump was ever in a position to win reelection, or that he is closing the campaign with any sort of momentum needed for a come-from-behind victory. Four years ago, we did have such data. In the RealClearPolitics national polling average, Hillary Clinton’s lead shrunk nearly six percentage points between October 18 and November 3, before ticking up a bit at the end. Her share of support throughout the duration of the general election campaign never reached 50 percent, an indication of soft support.

biden

Monday

Freddy Gray

Have we passed peak Biden?

A consensus has formed about this presidential election: it is Joe Biden’s to lose. As long as his vice-presidential nomination doesn’t backfire, or he does not spectacularly bungle the debates, the soon-to-be-confirmed Democratic nominee will be in the White House by the end of January. Just look at the polls.Well, do look at the polls, and you’ll notice that Biden is losing ground. He’s still ahead, and comfortably, but the race narrowed in July, just as the media started to discuss a Biden presidency as if it were a fait accompli. Trump’s job approval rating is rising slightly, too, from 41 percent on June 29 to almost 44 percent today, according to the RealClearPolitics tracker.

peak biden