Public sector

Francis Maude presents himself as a man trying to help the unions out in today's Financial Times. Some unions say they have to go ahead with strikes on November 30 – even though negotiations on pension changes are still going on – or else they'd lose their mandate for any future strikes and have to conduct a whole new ballot. Wagging an almost parental finger, Maude tells the unions: 'You shouldn't have got yourself into this mess but we're willing to help you out because we want to protect the public. I can't imagine any employer in the public sector would say if you have a token strike of a quarter of an hour during the day which doesn't affect public services, you lose a day's pay.

The TUC have just released a statement responding to the tweaked public sector pensions package that I blogged about earlier. It is, in part, fairly conciliatory; saying that the group welcomes "this movement in the government’s position". But it does end with a warning: "unless and until further real progress is made and acceptable offers are made within those negotiations, unions remain firmly committed to continuing their preparations for the planned day of action on November 30.

Remember that merry dance between the government and the unions over public sector pensions, a few weeks ago? Expect a minor reprise today, and much more over the summer. The government today announces how much extra public sector workers will have to pay to maintain their pension levels, and already the Telegraph has the numbers. When it comes to the 40,000 best-paid public sectorees — all on considerably over £100,000 — their contributions will rise by around £3,000 a year. And then it's a sliding scale all the way down to the 750,000 least well-paid workers, who will face no increase at all. The unions, who will rejoin the government in talks soon, are unlikely to respond kindly.

The judges are judging the judges, or at least judging by the cover of this morning's Times (£) they are. "Radical reform of the selection of judges," some leading figures tell the paper, "is needed to break the stranglehold of white Oxbridge males at the top of the judiciary." The story continues inside the paper, with a tranche of statistics on just how white, Oxbridge and male the judiciary actually is (i.e. very). It all reminded me of a table we put together for Coffee House some months ago, and which I thought I'd excavate this morning. Here it is, with judges sitting firmly at the bottom: Of course, some caveats apply to those figures: the state sector isn't just made up of comprehensives; this refers to the schools system of some decades ago; and so on.

Shortly before Michael Gove organised a strike for journalists in Dundee, I crossed a school picket line with my mum, a teacher at my local school (Nairn Academy). She was a member of a teaching union, the PAT, that didn't believe in strikes, so when the school closed the two of us went in. It was a perfectly friendly affair: my teachers (and her colleagues) were at the gate, with no one else around. One of her colleagues handed her a leaflet and we went on inside. We never discussed politics at home, and I still have no idea what my mum thought about Thatcher (it was 1985). But then, she and thousands of teachers like her took the basic view that kids should not be dragged into disputes between adults.

After the failure of today’s meeting between union leaders and Francis Maude and Danny Alexander, Thursday’s strike now seems certain to go ahead. It’ll be the biggest test so far of the coalition’s ability to withstand industrial action. The coalition has constantly emphasised that it has contingency plans in place to deal with strikes. This Thursday will show us how good these plans are. Certainly, the more schools that are kept open, the less powerful the bargaining position of the unions will be. I understand that David Cameron will use his speech to the Local Government Association tomorrow to emphasise that the deal that the government is proposing on public sector pensions is reasonable and fair.

Activity in Whitehall becomes more fevered as the day itself approaches. Michael Gove wants to see off the NUT with as little bloodshed as possible, honouring David Cameron’s decree that ministers tread softly. To that end, he has already written to headmasters urging them to keep calm and carry on. And this morning, news emerges that Gove is asking parents and retired teachers who have passed CRB checks to fill in on Thursday to ensure that children have a constructive day at school. The Department of Education has not yet approached former members of the flagship Teach First scheme to return to school for a day; it’s probably too late to do so on this occasion, but doubtless there will be others.

And so Danny Alexander has further angered unions by making it clear that "painful decisions" are needed to reform public-sector pensions, including raising the retirement age. But his proposals should no come as a surprise. Rapid demographic transitions caused by rising life expectancy and declining fertility mean that the proportion of old to young is growing rapidly. But when the Lib Dem minister says that "people are living much longer now," he is in fact underplaying how dramatic the change has been in the last decade. According to the Office of National Statistics, the proportion of people in Britain aged 65-and-over increased from 15 per cent in 1984 to 16 per cent in 2009, an increase of 1.7 million people.

An old boss of mine once said to me: when you start a new assignment, seek out a fight — and win it. The same advice should be given to incoming Prime Ministers. U-turns, as Mrs Thatcher knew, just create demand for more U-turns. If the government is willing to revise its NHS plans, then why not reopen the Defence Review, or alter the pledge to spend 0.7 of our national income on overseas aid (or at least abandon the questionable idea of legislating for it)? But seeking out and winning battles, while avoiding too many retreats, is not enough. To be great, a Prime Minister needs good enemies. Mrs Thatcher had great enemies in Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock. Tony Blair did too.

Data issued yesterday by the Incomes Data Services indicated that average pay settlements over the first quarter of 2011 in the public sector were close to 0 per cent. However, pay settlements in the private sector were closer to 3 per cent. Does this mean that Policy Exchange were wrong in a recent report to conclude that public sector workers are overpaid compared to their private sector counterparts? The basic answer is no. We highlighted that on a range of measures, workers in the public sector were overpaid compared to their comparators in the private sector. Even on our most conservative measure, which accounted for compositional differences in terms of age, location, hours, gender and qualifications, this gap was around 9 per cent.