Mark Kelly

Kamala Harris’s ascension to the Democratic nomination has been rapid and energizing for a demoralized party that had, in some corners, given up hope of beating Donald Trump and J.D. Vance in November. Her path was cleared by the Democratic elite, the same party figures who put her in the vice presidency in the first place despite the Biden family’s reported opposition at the time. Now she faces her first major decision: who to choose as her running mate, a choice that those same elites will almost certainly help dictate behind the scenes.

The speed at which politics moves in 2024 is enough to give the American citizenry a massive case of whiplash. It was just over three weeks ago that Joe Biden took the stage in a CNN debate that left the nation and the world shocked at his incapacity — leading to a massive freakout in the media, the donors and the Democratic base. But in the time since, it appeared the president, his inner circle and his family had dug in, insisting against all efforts to dislodge him that the president intended to continue to run and win in November.  The mood among Democratic circles was dejected, the attitude among the Donald Trump campaign ebullient — and that was before a failed assassination attempt just a week ago, a successful convention and the naming of J.D.

“What’s the problem with Arizona?” I’ve been asked this question countless times in the past week, as I was after Election Day 2020. That year, it took nine days for major media organizations to call my home state for President Joe Biden. This time around, the major races were called after six, but several down-ticket contests still hang in the balance. Friends as far away as Hungary and Brazil asked how their entire nations can count votes in a few hours, while it takes Arizona a week or more. Not to mention Floridians, where races were called an hour after polls closed. Back in 2000, the Sunshine State was the electoral laughing stock. Now, it’s Arizona’s turn. Boy, did we earn it. Two decades ago, Florida’s presidential tally between George W.

Live analysis as the results come in from your favorite Spectator editors, staffers, columnists and contributors (and some you don’t like, for good measure).

In the clusters of billboards at intersections in Phoenix, positioned to grab the attention of drivers waiting for the lights to change, one candidate’s signs stand out. In a familiar red-white-and-blue collage of names, stars and stripes, the crisp bold-type white lettering on a black background reads: “BLAKE MASTERS FOR SENATE.” The monochrome placards are one of many conspicuous displays of disruption by Masters, the thirty-six-year-old Peter Thiel acolyte hoping to topple Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly. The video with which he launched his campaign last summer was starkly shot and melancholic: the Sonora desert at dawn and a synth-y soundtrack, not the in-your-face, truck commercial aesthetic that is par for the course on the right these days.

Psephologists of the world unite: you have nothing to lose but your fibs! I write toward the end of September, when many pollsters are still treating their prognostications as a form of fan fiction. For example, one poll has star trooper Mark Kelly ahead of Blake Masters by 6.2 points in the Arizona race for US Senate. That, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, is ridiculous. Punditry isn’t prophecy, but mark my words: Blake Masters, absent some intervening catastrophe, is going to win that race and win convincingly. I am going to stick my neck out and say the same about John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz in the Senate race in Pennsylvania. “The polls” have Fetterman ahead by 4.5 points.