Larry Hogan

In the middle of the most chaotic presidential election in the modern era, with its death race through senility, assassination attempts and a manufactured coup, voters can be forgiven for their lack of focus on the partisan makeup of the United States Senate. But when it comes to what a Trump or Harris presidency could achieve, the answer may be determined by a handful of extremely close senatorial elections where a dearth of reliable polling has even longtime political insiders flying blind. Democrats have held the Senate since 2021, thanks to Republicans’ bungled attempt to hold on to two key seats in Georgia in the wake of Donald Trump’s attacks on early voting and mail-in ballots.

The saying used to go that "Democrats fall in love while Republicans fall in line," though lately Republicans seem mostly to fall on the floor. The circular firing squad has become a mainstay of GOP politics, even when — and this is what really sets them apart — they win elections rather than lose them. Republicans seem to love few things more than turning the guns inward and squealing "fire!!" So it's been since the 2022 midterms. The circular firing began with the party's moderate wing, which is always down for a little anti-Trump warfare. Governor Larry Hogan was on CNN last weekend where he trashed Trump for allegedly costing Republicans not just this election but the last two as well.

Maryland state delegate Dan Cox, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump, handily won the state's Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday. Cox's opponent was Kelly Shulz, the former Maryland commerce secretary who had the backing of her old boss, Governor Larry Hogan. Cox's victory confirms that despite Hogan's overall popularity — he has one of the highest gubernatorial approval ratings in the country — Republicans are no longer impressed by him. In fact, Hogan now polls better among Democrats than members of his own party. Why? Because for conservatives in Maryland, Hogan's two terms as governor were largely a betrayal.