Labour party

Why have David Cameron and George Osborne overreached? Why are so many in their own party no longer disposed to obey them? Obviously the great issue of Europe has something to do with it. But there is another factor. Victory at the last election, followed by the choice of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, has convinced too many Tories, including Mr Osborne himself, that they will be in power for ten more years at least. So they get careless and cocky. Then they make mistakes. Then they come up against the most admirable fact about parliamentary democracy, which is that you can never guarantee being in power for ten years. (You can’t even guarantee it for the prescribed five, though the iniquitous Fixed-term Parliament Act of the coalition has made this easier than before.

George Osborne turned up in the Commons chamber with a clear plan to get through this Budget debate: turn it into a partisan slug fest. His aim was to make it a straight Labour/Tory fight and by doing that, rally the Tory benches to him. With some help from the whips and the PPSs, he largely succeeded in doing that. Crucially for him, he got through the speech without incurring any further damage. As soon as Osborne began talking about the Budget, Labour started trying to intervene on him. Chris Leslie was first up, demanding an apology for the proposed PIP cuts. Osborne, in a response that set the tone for the rest of the speech, demanded that Labour apologise for the financial crisis.

With the Scottish Parliament elections set to take place in May, the SNP are expected to once again top the polls. As for the other parties, Kezia Dugdale's beleaguered Scottish Labour will be attempting to fight off Ruth Davidson's conservatives for second place. So, with Dugdale desperately needing to win back disillusioned voters, she may live to regret sending Jackie Baillie, the Scottish MSP, onto yesterday's Sunday Politics. In an interview with Gordon Brewer, Baillie attempted to put forward her party's new economic policy which claims to offer a way to end austerity which is not 'prescriptive'.

‘Why this sudden restlessness, this confusion?’ asked C.P. Cavafy in his poem ‘Waiting for the Barbarians’: Because night has fallen and the barbarians have not come. And some who have just returned from the border say there are no barbarians any longer. And now, what’s going to happen to us without barbarians? They were, those people, a kind of solution. All through your and my life the Labour party have been at the gates of Downing Street, and often enough stormed them, only to be beaten back at a subsequent election. What might happen to the Conservative party if those barbarians disappear? At first, Tories rejoiced at the Labour leadership election. The barbarians are fighting among themselves and no longer threaten us! Hurrah!

When an ICM phone poll this week had Labour level with the Tories for the first time since Jeremy Corbyn became leader, even the pollster cast doubt on the finding. But today, YouGov has Labour ahead by a point—34% to 33%. YouGov’s Anthony Wells says that this suggests ‘something is genuinely afoot’. Now, as the election reminded us polls are not all seeing. It is also doubtful what the value of a poll is this far out from a general election: Ed Miliband was regularly ahead by large margins during the last parliament and still went on to lose the election.

It has become commonplace to remark that there exists in Britain a mainstream political grouping that seems to be dwelling on another planet. Lost in fantasy, harking back to days long-gone, it lives on illusion. Time and the modern world have passed it by. Fleet Street and fashionable opinion rage against these mulish daydreamers for turning their backs on the voters and depriving Britain of an effective opposition. And all this is true. In only one detail are Fleet Street and fashionable opinion mistaken. They’ve got the wrong grouping in their sights. It is not Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and their crew who fit this picture: it is the Labour moderates. Neo-Blairites and neo-Brownites are in cloud cuckoo land — and in control of the parliamentary Labour party.

The saying ‘the House of Commons at its best’ is normally a pompous description of parliamentarians agreeing with one another on something it is impossible to disagree on. However, when MPs come together to scrutinise legislation involving the security services, they do come rather close to being at their best, as they grow rather anxious about whether the legislation will actually work. So far the debate on the Investigatory Powers Bill has largely been detailed and thoughtful and without much silly knockabout. But the closest the second reading session has come to knockabout was when Andy Burnham was offering Labour’s response.

Look! All this sniping at Jeremy Corbyn is wrong and now we have proof. The Labour leader is not in fact trashing his party’s brand. Today a poll from ICM puts the Conservatives and Labour level on 36 per cent, a jump of four points for the opposition and a drop of three for the governing party. But before Corbynistas have had a chance to gather up their red flags and take to the sunny streets to celebrate, ICM has already issued a clarification which, in essence, trashes the poll’s finding.

With the Budget due next week, George Osborne appeared on the Andrew Marr show to warn of the need for further spending cuts. Keen to put forward an alternative vision for the UK economy, Labour's Treasury team have also taken to the airwaves this morning. John McDonnell told Marr of the need for more long-term investment, arguing that at least 3 per cent of GDP should be used for investment compared to Osborne's 1.4 per cent. Alas it seems that Labour's shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury had failed to catch this. When Seema Malhotra appeared on the Sunday Politics to help explain McDonnell's vision she appeared to lack knowledge of any of the specifics.

What is Labour's biggest obstacle to getting back into government any time soon? Those who've spent any time thinking about the general election result - and the party still doesn't talk that much about May 2015 - will say that until voters trust the party on the economy, it is not going to succeed. John McDonnell's team clearly agrees, briefing the media today that the reason the Shadow Chancellor is making a major intervention on the economy as he prepares for the Budget is that voters were wary of Labour on the economy.  McDonnell's speech today sounds remarkably similar to the messages Ed Balls offered before the election, that Liz Kendall annoyed members with in the leadership contest and that Rachel Reeves produced in her own speech just days ago.