Labour party

Generally when someone says they 'couldn't give a toss' about something, you can safely bet more than 50p and a cake that it's the most important thing ever to them. So when Ed Balls told Sky's Murnaghan programme today that he 'couldn't give a toss' about speculation that Ed Miliband might move him, it meant a number of things. The first is, of course, that he could give a toss, but frankly it would be weird if the Shadow Chancellor didn't care whether or not he continued in his job. Anyone answering that question honestly would have to admit that they jolly well do give a toss about whether they're going to lose their job or not.

Vince Cable is surely right in his comments yesterday that the most likely scenario for Britain leaving the EU is if Ed Miliband is Prime Minister after the next election. The theory, that you hear a lot in Westminster, goes like this: Miliband is forced by public opinion into promising a referendum on EU membership, he then becomes Prime Minister and is obliged to hold the vote. But by this time, the Tory opposition is advocating a No vote; arguing that a better deal can be negotiated. The country then votes No and the rest of the EU, for once, accepts the result of the first vote. Many senior pro-European Labour figures feel that this scenario is all too plausible.

Ed Balls knew that his response to George Osborne's Autumn Statement today was going to be difficult. As I blogged this morning, the Shadow Chancellor didn't really have anywhere to go other than complain about the cost of living. This was aggravated by the fact that any Shadow Chancellor's response to any autumn statement is a tough gig as he has no more advance sight of the figures and announcements than anyone else (perhaps George Osborne was just trying to be kind this year by briefing so much out in advance). But Balls' strategy seems to have been the following: 1. Draft some good jokes in advance The jokes were good. If autumn statements were about jokes, Balls would have done pretty well.

After hours of really insightful discussions about bacon butties, MPs have finally approved the third reading of the #LetBritainDecide Bill in the Commons. The legislation will now pass to the House of Lords, where the fun really begins. I've already written that the Bill has served its purpose in uniting the Conservative party. But it is worth noting that Labour's position has not moved one jot during this process. Douglas Alexander might have been right when he told the Chamber that 'this is not a bill about the Conservatives trusting the public but about Conservative backbenchers not trusting a Conservative Prime Minister', but that scarcely excuses the Labour position, which is to not trust the public at all on Europe.

Stella Creasy sees today's announcement that the government does want to cap the cost of payday loan credit as a recognition that Labour was right to campaign on this issue and that consumers are suffering as a result of the current arrangements. But listen again to George Osborne's Today interview and you'll note another recognition: that Ed Miliband and colleagues are enjoying some success when they talk about markets not working for consumers.

The next time you see a Tory minister on television, count how long it is until they say that David Cameron is a leader with a long term plan for this country. This is the Tories’ new message. In a presentation to Cameron’s political Cabinet on Tuesday morning, Lynton Crosby told the ministers present that the Tories would probably lose the election if it was held today or tomorrow. But, as I report in the Mail on Sunday, he stressed that the election was still 16 months away so the Tories had time to turn things round. He emphasised that they should play up that Cameron is a man with a plan and attack Ed Miliband and Labour foir being opportunistic, something that is already showing up in Crosby’s polling.

The national debt figures are out - £1.2 trillion and rising – and although I hate to say it, the Labour Party has a valid point to make. If you don't adjust for inflation, Osborne has borrowed more in under four years than the Labour Party borrowed over 13 years. It’s unusual for Ed Balls to talk about debt accumulation as a bad thing, perhaps because his policy remains the accumulation of even more debt. But here’s the story so far:- Labour is, as ever, spinning too much. As they know, you need to adjust for inflation to make any meaningful comparison in public spending. But the overall point holds. Now, things are going pretty well for Osborne. Today , a CBI survey shows the strongest orders for manufacturing since 1995 (note from Citi here, graph below).

It started as soon as Ed Miliband stood up at PMQs today. ‘Nightmare!’ yelled the Tories. ‘Nightmare!’ They’d been fired up by the first question from Steve Brine, who craftily double-loaded his query. He referenced the Co-op bank and the ‘nightmare email’ in one sentence. Would the PM respond, he asked, ‘to grave concerns about the nightmare unfolding at the Co-operative?’ Cameron pretended to be all serious. He fretted about the regulatory controls and about safeguarding the bank without fleecing the tax-payer. ‘Nightmare!’ goaded the Tories. Ed Balls, seated beside Miliband, flushed puce. Not a natural Trappist, the shadow chancellor is clearly under orders to shut his gob during PMQs.

It has long been suspected that there are tensions between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. The pair fell out badly over the third runway at Heathrow in government and when Miliband was elected leader, he conspicuously didn’t offer Balls the job of shadow Chancellor. But since Balls became shadow Chancellor the pair has largely succeeded in keeping their differences under wraps. But the leaked emails revealed by Simon Walters in the Mail on Sunday today, show what Miliband’s team privately thinks of Balls. Torsten Bell, one of Miliband’s most influential aides, calls Balls a ‘nightmare’ and complains about how complicated his message on the economy is. Tellingly, he isn’t rebuked for his tone by the other Miliband advisers on the email.