Labour party

Only one party can be happy with the local elections results so far, Ukip. Nigel Farage’s party has so far added 86 councilors to its tally and these results suggest that Sunday, when the European Election votes are counted, should be a good night for the party. Labour’s results have been mixed to disappointing. Their best news of the night was picking up Hammersmith and Fulham off the Tories. Knocking over one of the Tories’ flagship councils will delight Labour. But Hammersmith is a region where the demographics have been running against the Tories, look at how Shaun Bailey failed to win the parliamentary seat last time. Labour has also gained control of Merton and Cambridge City councils.

Now the waiting begins.

Most of the reshuffle-related excitement in Westminster is focused on a pending Tory one. But does Ed Miliband's top team need a bit of freshening up too? I blogged last week that Labour backbenchers, including a number with serious experience of government, were unhappy with the way many of the Labour top dogs are failing to go out to bat for their leader. Miliband has certainly trodden on his stumps in the past few days with some broadcast gaffes, but he does have a problem with the batting order below him.

Ed Miliband seems to have clambered out of the wrong side of bed this morning. The Labour leader has been touring the TV and radio studios, where his answers have become progressively worse as the day went on. First up, Miliband spoke to Good Morning Britain about the 'cost-of-living crisis'. When asked whether he knew how much the average weekly household grocery bill was, he said ‘it depends on how much you are spending and how big your family is’. Then when questioned on how much the Miliband household spends, he said: ‘We probably spend £70-80 on groceries at least, probably more than that.

“We need to raise £66,000 to make…122,000 calls to Labour voters,” says a super-localised campaign email from the Labour Party. Apparently a donation of £5 will pay for ten phone calls to be made, and a £50 wedge will secure 100 of these vital calls. No wonder Labour is more than £12 million in debt: it is paying 50p per phone call! That hardly inspires confidence about the party’s economic competence.

The polls are all over the place this morning. Ukip is either on course for a thumping victory, going to be edged into second by Labour or has fallen into third place depending on which is your preferred pollster. But all three Westminster parties are operating on the assumption that Ukip will win, as I say in the Mail on Sunday. Certainly, Labour are getting their excuses in early. Those close to Miliband are quick to point out that Tony Blair never won a European Election and that the party machine will be concentrating more on Thursday’s council contests than the European Elections as having a strong council base will matter more in 2015 than who has the most MPs.

At first glance Mr S thought that he might be watching Labour’s latest class-war party election broadcast: rich kids at Oxford University trashing restaurants, tussling with the law and generally playing silly buggers in evening wear. Sound familiar? This is, however, the trailer for The Riot Club: the silver screen’s answer to ‘the Buller’, which will bear little or no resemblance to the drinking society beloved by Boris, Dave and George during their time at the university. Labour bods will be rubbing their hands with glee at the timing of the film’s release.

The Bank of England’s inflation report will be published later this morning, which will reveal how strong the bank believes the recovery to be. All eyes will be on its estimate of the remaining ‘slack’ in the economy, which will govern policy on interest rates. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has already said that the bank may have to raise rates earlier than expected if strong growth is creating inflationary pressure. City analysts appear to be working on the basis that rates will increase in the first quarter of next year; but there are rumours that the decision might have to be brought forward to the last quarter of this year, such is the speed of growth.

'Utter fucking bollocks'. In case that's not clear enough for you, the suggestion that Alistair Darling is being replaced as the head of the Better Together campaign is, as one insider puts it, 'absolute horseshit'. Douglas Alexander, the man replacing Darling according to the Daily Mail, was at the Better Together HQ in Glasgow earlier today and, I understand, mildly surprised to learn of his elevation. Then again, the Mail only reports that there will be 'no formal announcement of a change' merely a 'secret agreement' that Alexander should effectively supplant Darling. So secret, however, that no-one involved appears to have heard of it.