Labour party

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/theosbornesupremacy/media.mp3" title="John McTernan and Isabel Hardman discuss the plight of Labour's modernisers" startat=837] Listen [/audioplayer]The exhausted Labour leadership contest takes a bucket-and-spade holiday next week, with all four candidates agreeing to an uneasy truce on hustings — but probably not hostilities. It’s clear everyone could do with a bit of a rest, not least because they need time to sit down, scratch their heads and ask how on earth things got to where they are. Jeremy Corbyn, the veteran socialist, is still ahead — and not just in published polls, but in the returns all the campaigns are seeing.

After May’s general election, both Labour and the Lib Dems needed a new leader, but the contrast between their leadership elections could not be starker. Labour is in the midst of a full-blown civil war. To outsiders, it appears to be a party in total meltdown, as veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn continues to poll ahead of his more mainstream rivals. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems MPs are under new leadership, after the bloodless ascension of Tim Farron, who beat rival Norman Lamb in a relatively good-natured contest. It would be easy to dismiss the leader of eight MPs as insignificant, but it matters profoundly to Lib Dem members who want to rebuild their party.

Jeremy Corbyn is still on track to be the next Labour leader, according to leaked private polling. Tomorrow’s Daily Mirror reports that this poll puts Corbyn on 42 per cent of the first preference votes, with Yvette Cooper comes in second place on 22.6 per cent, Andy Burnham on 20 and Liz Kendall on 14. Until now, Burnham’s campaign has maintained their man is the only one who could beat Corbyn after the votes have been redistributed. But the Mirror reports that once Kendall has been knocked out and her second preferences sent to other candidates, it is a dead heat with Corbyn on 51 per cent and Cooper on 49 per cent — both figures within the margin of error.

Keeping Labour grounded to the centre is proving a tough battle for the moderates. Labour First, a pressure group of the old right within the party, has penned a public letter urging the Progress think tank, a voice from the new right, to put aside ideological purity and do whatever it takes to beat Jeremy Corbyn. Progress, which hosted Tony Blair last week, has naturally endorsed Liz Kendall for leader — but it has not instructed moderate voices to put Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper into second and third preferences to stop Corbyn. Labour First thinks this is a folly and urges Progress to take the necessary steps to beat Corbyn: 'Within Labour First we have high profile supporters of each of Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall.

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next Labour leader, there will be a lot of finger pointing at Ed Miliband. Today’s Sunday Times reports that 140,000 new members are projected to sign up to vote in the leadership contest — the equivalent of the entire Conservative party. According to the paper, many of these new activists are taking advantage of Miliband's voting reforms and come from hard-left groups. It's a fair assumption to say they are joining to back Corbyn for leader. If this projection turns out to be true, it might explain Corbynmania, as well as raising the possibility that Corbyn might actually win.

Which factions have the most influence in the Labour leadership and deputy leadership contest? The biggest split in the party is between the pressure group Progress and those with links to trade unions. Their respective outlooks are often perceived as being mutually exclusive, and the way the leadership contest is shaping up seems to suggest that this is true. Here is how the party breaks down between those two political poles, both in the 2010 contest and the one taking place currently. Around 80 of the 232 MPs in the Parliamentary Labour Party have taken part in Progress events over the last five years according to its website.

Some Labour MPs have been expressing their regret at the fun and games they indulged in to get Jeremy Corbyn onto the leadership contest ballot paper back in the heady days when this was about ‘broadening the debate’, rather than the guy actually having a chance of winning. Now that another poll suggests he could be in with a shot, the fun and games looks rather less fun. That’s why Tony Blair was so forceful this morning, and that’s why MPs such as Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna have been so agitated in public about the matter. But those in the party who are horrified that Corbyn is gaining so much traction should be careful of the way they express their alarm.