Jon Tester

In the middle of the most chaotic presidential election in the modern era, with its death race through senility, assassination attempts and a manufactured coup, voters can be forgiven for their lack of focus on the partisan makeup of the United States Senate. But when it comes to what a Trump or Harris presidency could achieve, the answer may be determined by a handful of extremely close senatorial elections where a dearth of reliable polling has even longtime political insiders flying blind. Democrats have held the Senate since 2021, thanks to Republicans’ bungled attempt to hold on to two key seats in Georgia in the wake of Donald Trump’s attacks on early voting and mail-in ballots.

The mood among Washington Democrats is grim. Understanding that Joe Biden is headed toward defeat, they’ve also come to the conclusion that there’s nothing they can do about it — that unless Biden willingly steps aside, their side is doomed to failure. Three senators — including Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, fighting to hold on in competitive elections this fall — said this out loud to their colleagues behind closed doors. The third, Michael Bennet of Colorado, was willing to say it publicly on CNN, even invoking the prospect of a “landslide” that results in Republicans winning the Senate and the House. Even Nancy Pelosi seemed skeptical of Biden’s prospects on Morning Joe, where she said, “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run.

Every two years, Chuck Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC and its allies come up with cunning ways to get Democrats over the finish line. The latest instance can be seen in Montana, where a group with virtually no online presence has already spent almost $5 million attacking the GOP’s preferred candidate, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.  Last Best Place PAC, formed last September, has spent almost the same amount as Democratic incumbent Jon Tester has in his reelection bid, according to AdImpact’s tracking. The Democrats’ pro-Tester and anti-Sheehy spending more than doubles the GOP’s spending so far.