Iowa Caucus

The back-to-back nature of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests has in the past fulfilled an important function for Republicans as they choose their presidential nominee: they've made clear who the top-tier candidates are for the job, and in several key points, dramatically changed the race. This time around, Iowa failed to do so — and New Hampshire may follow suit.  For Donald Trump, the caucus win went as expected, with a slim majority of the overall vote, in what looks to be the lowest turnout competitive Iowa caucus in a quarter century.

Numbers are mysterious things. According to orthodox Roman Catholicism, there are instances in which 3 = 1. You might get by with that formula in your theology seminar. Don’t try it in your arithmetic class. Unraveling the reason why both might be right would take me far afield. But since numbers are in the air tonight — the night of the Big Deal Iowa Caucus Race — I thought I would remind you that numbers, and the reality behind them, can be mysterious. In the run up to the Caucus, lots of pundits put on their best owlish eyeglasses and explained that even though Iowa had only forty delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, it was nevertheless important because it was the first contest in the primary season.