Herbert Hoover

Republicans and Democrats, who disagree so virulently on so much, at least agree on two things. Both say it is the most consequential election in US history. (They might want to check on 1860.) And both believe the other side’s triumph would be catastrophic. It would have dangerous consequences for decades, they say, and might be impossible to correct. They are half right, perhaps more, and what they are right about is scary. This election is the most consequential since Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Herbert Hoover amid the Great Depression. That election was consequential because it and the following one, in 1936, locked in the Democratic Party coalition that effectively governed the country for the next seventy-five years.

It’s easy to summarize the two sides’ closing arguments. For Kamala Harris, the closing argument is “Trump is really, really bad.” Asked to expand, it is “Trump will end abortion rights” and “Trump is a fascist.” For Trump, the argument is, “Things were great when I was president, and I will make them great again.” Asked to expand, it is “I will be better than Washington and Lincoln. Everybody says so.” And “Kamala is a left-wing nut job.”  After discounting the hyperbole (a gargantuan task), how is the final stretch going? Rocky for Democrats, encouraging for Republicans. That’s the message from polling trends and political betting markets. The polls are essentially tied in battleground states, but have moved slightly in Trump’s favor.

After Thursday’s fiasco in Atlanta, Joe Biden faces two hard choices. The hardest — and grimmest — is whether to stay in the race. Staying in means ignoring the rising chorus of calls to withdraw, not from the opposing party but from flaks on his own side, led by the New York Times. The only groups that haven’t issued that call, so far, are his party’s leadership on Capitol Hill and the two former Democratic presidents. They see the same problems everyone else does, but they probably think it is too late to force Joe out without catastrophic costs — and may be impossible because Joe simply won’t leave.  Second, if Joe does stay in the race, his campaign strategy has to change.