GOP nomination

Friday

Ben Domenech

Is there an election going on?

Charleston, South Carolina Welcome to Thunderdome, where the past three days in South Carolina have felt bizarre, for several reasons. A dominant incumbent is facing his solo challenger without any interest in demolishing her efforts in the primary contest. The atmosphere at Donald Trump’s Greenville town hall was one of grim resolve, far from the enthusiasms of 2020. And for the upstart Nikki Haley campaign, her events have been popular and packed with fans, but all operating from an assumption that she will inevitably lose. This is an incredibly odd election — where South Carolina was decisive in 2020, 2016 and 2008, now it feels like an afterthought.

Thursday

Ben Domenech

Waiting on the world to change

Welcome to Thunderdome, where we must pretend that this primary isn’t over for another week or three, thanks to the brilliant decisions of Nikki Haley’s donors. No, seriously, they think she still has a shot! Or at least that’s what they're telling people: Billionaire Ken Griffin, one of the nation’s top GOP donors, said Tuesday he has backed Haley and a source familiar with his donations confirmed he gave $5 million in January to the super political action committee supporting her...During an earlier appearance Tuesday on CNBC, Griffin said he thought Haley would “run away with the general election” if she became the Republican nominee. But he also acknowledged her path is “a narrower road than it was eight weeks ago.” How narrow you ask? Oh, very, very narrow.

Wednesday

The Spectator

Trump’s giant leap toward the GOP nomination

Last night, former president Donald Trump all but sewed up the Republican nomination for president in 2024. Former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley finished eleven points behind Trump in a state that she needed to win in order to justify her continued presence in the race. Next up is Nevada, where Haley is not participating in the state GOP’s caucuses, as she has instead chosen to be listed on the irrelevant primary ballot. Then, Trump and Haley will square off in the latter’s home state of South Carolina. Trump enjoys a hefty lead there according to early polling, and Haley will be hard-pressed to improve her position with another $31 million of ad buys like she did in New Hampshire, as she is already a known quantity to voters there.

Trump
Charles Lipson

Why is Nikki Haley staying in the race?

In classic cartoons, one character occasionally runs off the edge of the cliff and, for a few moments, hangs suspended in mid-air. Confused, he looks at the camera and then looks down. As soon as he looks down and realizes there is no Earth supporting him, he plummets to the bottom of the canyon. Wile E. Coyote faces that fate repeatedly. Nikki Haley faces it now. So far, she’s refusing to look down. When she finally does, she will see that there is no ground beneath her in the Republican primary. There’s just a very long way to fall to the canyon below. True, Haley got a respectable vote percentage in New Hampshire and still has support from donors. But she can’t stay suspended forever.

nikki haley new hampshire
Ben Domenech

For the moment, Haley holds on

Bedford, New Hampshire Virtually everyone agrees that regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire last night, Donald Trump is destined to be the GOP’s 2024 nominee. In exit polls, even the New Hampshire voters who cast a vote for Nikki Haley agreed. He has all the advantages now — a flood of fresh endorsements from the party establishment, including from his handpicked head of the Republican National Committee, and the clear backing of virtually every major conservative partisan. He has the advantage of incumbency, every party resource working in his favor, no expectations that he will debate or change his rather lackluster approach to campaigning, and the map ahead looks very good for him.