Germany

The Greek Crisis in a Single Chart

From our UK edition

There are some - especially on the American left - who give the impression of thinking that if only the European Central Bank behaved differently or if only Angela Merkel could be persuaded to do the right thing then somehow there might be a way out of the eurozone crisis. But even allowing for the fact that politics and economics are generally concerned with making the best of less than optimal situations sometimes there really is no way out. Here's a handy chart that basically explains it all: No-one is "solving" this crisis because there isn't a solution to it. Since every choice leads to bad places it is sensible, really, to sit tight and avoid making a choice at all. This might not be noble but it's realistic. Hope is not much but it's about all there is.

The dawdling eurozone

From our UK edition

For all the attention that is being focused in Westminster on the publication of the Cabinet Secretary’s report into the links between Adam Werritty and Liam Fox tomorrow, the real story is the countdown to Cannes. It is now three weeks since George Osborne declared that the eurozone countries had three weeks to save the Euro. So far, they haven’t done anywhere near enough. There’s also little sign that this weekend’s summit will see them make much progress. The Germans are already busy playing down expectations. From a British perspective, the intriguing question is: what does the coalition do if the eurozone continues to show no sign of getting its act together?

Italy in the firing line

From our UK edition

Markets sank into negative territory this morning, following Standand&Poor’s downgrade of Italy’s credit rating. (Although they have since recovered.) The agency cut Italy’s rating from A+/A-1+ to A/A-1; it also kept its outlook as negative. The agency’s reasoning is hardly surprising: growth is negligible, debt is unsustainable and Silvio Berlusconi’s inert government appears incapable of arresting the crisis. Frail economics and supine politics, those twinned threats to prosperity, have struck again. The implications to the Eurozone, and the world economy, are obvious. An economist in Nomura’s Sydney office told Reuters, “It only adds to the contagion risk over Greece and has encouraged the flight to safety in markets here.

“It started in Germany…”

From our UK edition

Bugger the Bundesbank — that seems to be ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s current raison d’être. The ECB, together with other global central banks, yesterday agreed to provide dollar funding to ease the mounting liquidity crisis in European banks, largely caused by American banks curtailing interbank lending in anticipation of another crisis. This unorthodox action runs contrary to the wishes of the German Bundesbank, adding to the pre-existing strain between the ECB and the German establishment over bond purchasing, tension that was epitomised by the resignation of Jurgen Stark last weekend. Obviously, central banks do not take this action every day and it is yet another indication that crisis is now impending.

Britain sues the ECB

From our UK edition

As the EU debt drama continues unspooling like a perversely watchable soap opera (the FT’s Neil Hume describes it as ‘eurozone crisis porn'), an intriguing sub-plot has emerged: Britain is suing the European Central Bank. The Treasury is unhappy with an ECB move to limit the kind of euro-denominated products that can pass through UK clearing houses, suspecting it’s a bid to shift financial activity from London to Paris/Berlin. So it’s taking legal action, the first of its kind by an EU member state. This is not the first UK-EU disagreement that has surfaced in recent months, underlining the tensions between Britain and the Continent as financial centres across Europe fight over a (shrinking) business pie.

Merkel & Sarkozy have only words

From our UK edition

It was something of a mystery. Emergency conference calls about the future of the Eurozone were being made yesterday, but there was no news of those discussions. As it turned out, this was for the best of all possible reasons: there was no news to report. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy announced no new measures to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis; rather, they merely declared “solidarity” with Greece and assured the markets that Greece would not be forced from the single currency. Their words seem to have assuaged the markets for the moment, but only the most brazen optimist would bet on the rally being long lived.

The Euro-crisis heats up

From our UK edition

Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and George Papandreou are in crisis talks about Greek debt. There are rumours that they are preparing an "orderly default" for Greece. But, officially, Merkel is still pressing ahead with implementing the existing Greek debt deals. This meeting also has a domestic context for Merkel. According to the FT, she is determined to stamp on the growing disquiet within her governing coalition over the Eurozone crisis and is pleading for calm resolve. It remains to be seen if she succeeds.  The danger of contagion within the Eurozone remains and concerns about the exposure of French banks persist, which is doubly worrying for Nicolas Sarkozy given the proximity of French banks to the French state.

Resignation provides a Stark reminder of the divisions within the eurozone

From our UK edition

The problems facing the eurozone have been underlined by the departure from the European Central Bank yesterday of its senior German representative, Jürgen Stark. Stark, who is in essence the bank’s chief economist, has quit its six-member executive board. The ECB is saying that he’s leaving for personal reasons but it is widely suspected that he’s really off because he can’t accept the bank’s policy of buying up the debt of embattled eurozone economies.  Stark will almost certainly be replaced by another German. Given the current political dynamics there, it is almost certain that whoever succeeds Stark will take an equally dim view of the ECB purchasing bucket loads of ‘olive zone’ debt.

Merkel’s domestic difficulties threaten the Eurozone

From our UK edition

As August draws to a close, Europe is bracing itself for a series of September sovereign debt crises. Events in Germany at the moment have the potential to make these crises into events that could break the back of the Eurozone. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports, Chancellor Merkel might not have the votes to push the European Financial Stability Facility through the German parliament. Merkel is currently under attack from all angles in Germany. Helmut Kohl has criticised her foreign policy, while the German president has implied that she should not have let the European Central Bank buy up so many poor quality bonds. It is now possible to see her coalition collapsing at some point in the near future.

Further tension in the Eurozone

From our UK edition

The Eurozone’s political crisis is deepening. Further to the news that individual member states were seeking their own bilateral deals with Greece to insure their taxpayers’ money from default, the FT reports that disagreements are emerging over how these deals should be conducted. Holland objects that Finland’s accord with Athens relies on Greece using EU bailout funds as collateral. “The Netherlands is no supporter of this proposal,” Jan Kees de Jager, the Dutch finance minister, said. “It is not compatible with the principle of equal treatment of all euro countries.

This isn’t just any solution; this is an M&S solution

From our UK edition

Banks and financial institutions endured a painful day’s trading, following Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement yesterday that the Eurozone should adopt a ‘Tobin tax’, a charge on financial transactions. Once again, M&S chose piecemeal changes over the grand structural scheme desired by markets. The Tobin tax was just one proposal of three. The other two were: to create “genuine economic governance of the Eurozone” under, for the moment, EU President Herbert van Rompuy. The second: to impose a ‘Golden Rule’ on the budgets of Eurozone members. The ‘Golden Rule’ will bind national parliaments to agree to limits on national debt levels and impose statutory requirements on mastering budget deficits.

Battle of the century

From our UK edition

The American historian Walter Russell-Mead has a cynical — but very possibly accurate — take on what the French are trying to persuade the Germans to accept with their plan for Eurobonds: 'France’s clear short term goal is to commit Germany to underwrite debts from weak EU states.  That not only staves off a crisis that threatens to engulf France; by putting Germany on as a co-signer for Greek, Italian and Spanish loans, France will ensure that Germany’s credit rating will not be better than France’s. The French will accept almost any German rules to limit the ability of countries like Greece to run up new debts.

Back to the drawing board as Eurobonds look dead in the water

From our UK edition

Watch her lips: no Eurobonds. Angela Merkel’s Finance, Minister Wolfgang Schauble has told Der Spiegel: "I rule out Eurobonds for as long as member states conduct their own financial policies and we need different rates of interest in order that there are possible incentives and sanctions to enforce fiscal solidity.” Merkel’s government is making its depositions ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone summit, rebutting the moves made by other member states over the weekend to introduce Eurobonds, a step towards political integration. Those proposals were backed by Nicolas Sarkozy, with whom Merkel is meeting in private this afternoon.

What was it like at the time?

From our UK edition

At midday on Thursday, 8 June 1933 — Erik Larson is very keen on his times — the newly elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt had a call put through to the history department at the University of Chicago. At midday on Thursday, 8 June 1933 — Erik Larson is very keen on his times — the newly elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt had a call put through to the history department at the University of Chicago. Since taking office in early March Roosevelt had been trying to fill the post of ambassador to Berlin, and with none of the usual suspects prepared to take on the job and Congress on the point of adjourning for the summer recess, time was fast running out.

Is Merkel getting her way?

From our UK edition

Below, courtesy of the Telegraph, is a leaked copy of the draft proposals on managing the Greek debt crisis.There are no measures to reduce Greece's debts to sustainable levels; subsidy is the preferred route. This will presumably hit German taxpayers the hardest, but Merkel has managed to obtain private sector involvement, a clear German objective in these discussions.  However, this course is likely to lead to Greece’s selective default as creditors buy back bonds. The European Central Bank has declared that it is happy to allow this and will continue to accept government bonds in the event of sovereign default.

Common Franco-German position on Greek debt

From our UK edition

As I wrote earlier this morning, rumours of a ‘common Franco-German position’ on Greek debt were circulating in the early hours. Details are now emerging. Nicolas Sarkozy has dropped plans to impose a 0.0025 per cent levy on Eurozone bank assets, which was opposed by Angela Merkel for being much too cumbersome. In return, it seems that Merkel is prepared to consider the French-led plan of bond rollover. Merkel is also keen that private sector holders of Greek bonds pay their share of this second bailout. According to the FT, she favours a bond-swap deal, whereby bonds that will mature in the next eight years are swapped for new 30 year bonds paying a lower rate of interest.

Getting a grip of the crisis

From our UK edition

“I’m very worried, this building [the Treasury] is very worried and this government is very worried,” said George Osborne of the unfolding crisis in the Eurozone. In an interview with the FT, the chancellor goes on to say that he is in constant contact with his continental counterparts and urges them once again to “get a grip”. Eurozone leaders are meeting today to discuss further loans to Greece. Three options are being considered: first, an extension of the European Financial Stability Facility; second, private sector creditors re-lend money for a longer period and at a lower rate; third, impose a tax on banks to secure revenue for Greece.

Euro crisis enters a new phase

From our UK edition

It was a problem that would be fixed with a snap of the Commissioners' manicured fingers, but now fresh euro-storms are louring in the near distance. As predicted over the weekend, the markets reacted to the European Banking Authority’s deeply flawed stress tests with fevered concern and a clear note of contempt. The FTSE shed 90 points yesterday, with banks among the day’s biggest losers. The performance in Frankfurt and Paris was equally baleful, as investors fled for safe commodity stocks. As Fraser has noted, Allister Heath argues that the Eurozone crisis is responsible for the booming price of gold.

Inadequate stress test inspires anti-EU sentiment across Europe

From our UK edition

Yesterday’s European Banking Authority (EBA) stress test was supposed to restore confidence in the euro and Europe’s beleaguered financial institutions; it has had the opposite effect. Investors and market analysts are preparing for ‘Black Monday’ after only 8 banks failed the test and must now raise £2.2 billion between them to stave off ruin. A respected estimate by Goldman Sachs expected at least 15 banks to fail, requiring £29 billion to recapitalise. As the Spectator’s business blog reported yesterday, analysts feared that the EBA’s test would not be sufficiently stringent, and so it came to pass.

Stand up for freedom and freedom will stand up for you (eventually)

From our UK edition

It was hard to be a supporter of U.S. President Ronald Reagan in Western Europe. As a student living in West Germany at the time, I remember well the commonly held view of him: B-rate actor who read cue cards, a nuclear-weapons-obsessed warmonger, and not very bright to boot. Never mind that he had also been a popular two-term governor of the most populous state in the U.S. (California), because that did not fit with the bumbling cowboy narrative. When he called the Soviet Union “the evil empire” the chattering classes saw it as simplistic, unsophisticated and cringe-worthy. Not so the people caught behind the Iron Curtain who silently cheered someone who stood up for them and spoke the truth about the oppression under which they were living.